A4
THE ASTORIAN • TuESdAy, AuguST 31, 2021
OPINION
editor@dailyastorian.com
KARI BORGEN
Publisher
DERRICK DePLEDGE
Editor
Founded in 1873
SHANNON ARLINT
Circulation Manager
JOHN D. BRUIJN
Production Manager
CARL EARL
Systems Manager
GUEST COLUMN
Takeaways from the latest economic forecast
well-deserved tax cut! Some
Oregonians will get more than
$100,000 back in a tax rebate next
A
year.
Unfair! The richest Oregonians will
reap a rebate windfall next year.
Ah, the dueling narratives of whether
Oregon’s unique income tax “kicker” is
good, bad or … what?
Last week’s headlines about next year’s
kicker rebate focused on its size — up to
a few hundred dollars for
many of us, a whole lot
more for the wealthiest
among us. But that was
only a fraction of what
state economists had to
say about where Oregon is
headed.
DICK
Here are seven take-
HUGHES
aways from the quar-
terly economic and reve-
nue forecasts, which State Economist Mark
McMullen and senior economist Josh Leh-
ner presented to the Legislature’s tax com-
mittees on Wednesday.
1. Overall, Oregon’s economy is doing
well, especially compared with the slow
recovery that followed previous recessions,
but thousands of jobs have yet to return.
Despite renewed concerns about
COVID-19, McMullen said there’s been
no discussion of reimposing health restric-
tions on businesses. However, if business
shutdowns recur, the economic impact
will be much worse than earlier in the
pandemic.
Billions of federal dollars bailed out
Oregonians — and the state budget
through the resulting income taxes — via
unemployment benefits, stimulus pay-
ments and other coronavirus relief pro-
grams. There’s no talk of the feds stepping
in again.
The Oregon Employment Department
also is not expecting renewed business
shutdowns and the resulting deluge of new
unemployment claims. But, acting direc-
tor David Gerstenfeld said last week, the
department is watching and planning just
in case.
Pandemic jobless benefits will expire
Saturday for as many as 81,000 individu-
als, potentially ending payments for two-
thirds of folks on unemployment. And
for those filing new claims under regu-
lar unemployment, the “waiting week” for
receiving benefits will resume.
2. The potential availability of those
81,000 individuals won’t solve Ore-
gon’s labor shortage. Based on what has
happened in other states, many will sur-
vive on savings for now. The pandemic
and working from home led to a national
soul-searching about how people view
their jobs and whether working long hours
Hailey Hoffman/The Astorian
Child care is a barrier to employment for many families.
ply look like if we closed the educational
or having a two-income household is worth
attainment gap between white, non-His-
it.
panic Oregonians and communities of
Amid the competition for workers, Ore-
gon employers are raising pay and offer-
color? How many more workers could
ing other incentives. Average wages are
local businesses hire if employment rates
10% higher than before the pandemic, but
across all segments of the population were
the income disparity
at their historical
among Oregonians
maximum? What if
THE MORE yOu PAy
has widened.
women were hired
In their report, the
the same rate as
IN TAXES, THE MORE at men?”
economists wrote:
“Consumer demand
3. Overcom-
yOu gET BACK. IS
ing that gender gap
is strong given
THAT FAIR? dEPENdS would substantially
household incomes.
boost the economy,
Firms are looking to
ON WHOM yOu ASK.
but child care avail-
staff up as quickly as
ability, affordability
possible, and wages
ANd THAT IS WHy
and flexibility remain
are rising quite
SOME LEgISLATORS
a significant barrier.
quickly as they try
“If we could
to attract and retain
WANT TO CAP THE
address our child
workers in today’s
care disparities and
tight labor market.
REBATES BuT STOP
child care deserts and
Looking forward, it
SHORT OF KILLINg
the like, that would
is hard to see how
really move the nee-
labor supply will
THE
KICKER.
dle because we’re
remain depressed
talking about half the
indefinitely.”
population,” Lehner told legislators. “Of
Oregon will create a record number
course, the policy here wouldn’t be, ‘We
of jobs this year, the number of job seek-
ers gradually will increase, but labor sup-
need to hire more women.’ The policy here
ply will remain a major constraint on eco-
would be, ‘We need to address some of
nomic growth. Even before the pandemic,
these barriers to employment so that people
half the job vacancies in Oregon were dif-
can work if they wanted to.’”
ficult to fill.
4. Productivity per Oregon worker has
One factor is that Oregon traditionally
increased 8% during the pandemic. “Much
relied on newcomers to expand the labor
of these gains have been forced onto firms
force. However, the state’s population
where they must try (to) make do with
growth has slowed to less than 1% annu-
what they have,” the economists wrote.
ally, so employers would be wise to con-
5. Rural Oregon generally is recovering
sider alternatives.
faster than big cities, which is the reverse
The economists wrote: “Specifically,
of most recessions.
what would Oregon’s long-run labor sup-
Business travel remains down, many
people are working from home instead
of commuting into downtowns and peo-
ple remain cautious about attending urban
activities and events.
“The wildcard in terms of downtown
Portland and job centers more broadly
remains working from home. Ultimately
where that lands, be it a couple days a
week versus fully remote, will go a long
way to determining the impact on commer-
cial real estate,” the economists wrote.
6. The state’s tax coffers are overflow-
ing, and the 2021 Legislature made only
small changes in tax policy. General fund
revenues have almost doubled to $24 bil-
lion in the past decade — basically from
the end of Gov. Ted Kulongoski’s term to
today.
That tax growth will slow as retiring
baby boomers work less and spend less.
The Legislature could consider diversify-
ing its tax structure to bring in more. Ore-
gon already has been upping its various
consumption taxes — that is, sales taxes,
but not by that name.
“The Legislature has gone a long way
toward diversifying our tax base in the last
few years,” McMullen told lawmakers.
“We’re really expanding in terms of these
consumer-style taxes.”
7. Back to the kicker: Budgets would
be even bigger if the state had not returned
$2.6 billion in kicker rebates during the
past decade.
That was the goal when the Legisla-
ture developed the kicker in 1979: restrain
state budgets from growing too big. In that
sense, the kicker does its job. However, it
failed in its overall goal: deter California’s
tax revolt from taking over Oregon.
Polls consistently show Oregonians
love the kicker, which is why voters in
2000 enshrined it in the state constitution.
The kicker is based on a nearly impos-
sible challenge for economists: predicting
future revenues within 2% accuracy.
The estimated kicker, which will be
finalized by October, is that Oregonians
will get a credit next year equal to 17.5%
of what they would pay for 2020 personal
income taxes.
That means the bottom fifth of Ore-
gonians, those with a taxable income
under $12,100, could get a typical kicker
of $30. The top 1%, with incomes above
$442,7000, will average a kicker of
$16,880. For the even-wealthier among the
1%, some rebates will top $100,000.
The more you pay in taxes, the more
you get back.
Is that fair? Depends on whom you ask.
And that is why some legislators want to
cap the rebates but stop short of killing the
kicker.
dick Hughes has been covering the Ore-
gon political scene since 1976.
GUEST COLUMN
Support our health care heroes
E
arlier this month, the United Way
of Clatsop County Board took an
emergency vote which ultimately
culminated in a devastating decision.
Due to new COVID-related informa-
tion from the local medical community, the
Shipwrecked Music Festival, a fundrais-
ing event for our local nonprofit agencies,
was canceled. In making this decision,
our board chose to embrace a culture that
is pro-science, as well as
one of active engagement
in all facets of community
wellness — even when we
stood to lose $15,000 in
event operations costs.
Our hearts ached for the
nonprofits we’d hoped to
JEN
assist.
MUNSON
Even in outdoor ven-
ues where physical distanc-
ing is possible, such as the Clatsop County
Fairgrounds, the United Way was advised
that the delta variant is remarkably suc-
cessful in transmission. Further, the event
was slated to involve alcohol, which may
impair even the most genuine commitment
to distancing.
Therefore, we chose to stand with our
friends in public health and avoid putting
any attendees at risk.
Accordingly, a full-throated show of
support for the medical community must
include a well-considered appreciation of
the pressures these health care workers
face on our behalf. Secondly, it requires a
personal inventory of the ways in which
each of us can better support them in this
enduring crisis.
One thing is certain. We are putting
these front-line workers at risk of moral
injury.
Moral injury is the damage done to
one’s conscience or moral compass when
that person perpetrates, witnesses or fails
to prevent acts that violate one’s own
moral beliefs, values or ethical codes of
conduct. What’s worse, moral injury can
be a precursor to trauma-based diagnoses.
In my professional practice, I have
become familiar with how symptoms of
post-traumatic stress disorder manifest
in employment settings. Indeed, we typi-
cally associate the concept of moral injury
and PTSD with returning military service
members.
Colloquially, we may term this “survi-
vor’s guilt.” In fact, guilt has been iden-
tified as the most salient experience of
PTSD. Additional symptoms include anxi-
ety, hopelessness, flashbacks, social isola-
tion and even suicidal thoughts.
As we learned this month, the coun-
ty’s hospitals have been inundated by new
virus cases, including some tied to the
Clatsop County Fair. Complicating matters
is another wave of medical equipment and
testing supply shortages and the difficulty
in transferring patients to other hospitals
for specialized care.
Given this situation, it is only a mat-
ter of time until our health care workers
face some ghastly decisions around who
receives life-saving care and who will not.
To be regularly charged with such deci-
sions is inconceivable to most of us. We do
not train medical workers for this sort of
triage either. How could we?
Such high-stakes emotional reckon-
ing is compounded in an epidemic where
workers face long shifts punctuated by
insufficient rest — only to get up and do
it all again the next day. Crucially, where
the potency of a traumatic episode is con-
cerned, the effect of repetitive injury
leaves little if any time to process an inci-
dent. When left unaddressed, these “thou-
sand cuts” often lead to longer term mental
health consequences.
It has been said that the ultimate injus-
tice then, on top of all this moral injury, is
for health care workers to leave the hospi-
tal only to see that outside those walls the
rest of us still blunder on, gleefully mock-
Hailey Hoffman/The Astorian
Clatsop County traced coronavirus cases to the county fair.
ing mask mandates and other precautions
as though they are nothing more than polit-
ical theater.
Is this a failure of education? Or is it a
failure of leadership? Regardless, in mak-
ing those choices, we put our health care
workers in harm’s way, and, by extension,
their families, too. Almost comically, we
then expect them to risk their own lives
to save us, should we contract the virus.
It’s a calculus suggesting we deem these
workers valuable only when we benefit
personally.
An alternative to that seeming indif-
ference is to cultivate an ethic known as
“health citizenship.” It means that as the
beneficiaries of patient care, we hold up
our end of the bargain.
We contact our elected representatives
and implore them to follow public health
science when they set policy. It also means
that if they choose not to, we vote them
out. Health citizenship requires that we
advocate for our hospitals and other med-
ical care providers to protect the well-be-
ing of staff. This includes providing ade-
quate trauma-informed support in the form
of counseling, peer mentorship, employee
resource groups and appropriate staffing to
promote recovery time between shifts.
Finally, it means ensuring that we
do not further contribute to the problem
during this pandemic.
Canceling the Shipwrecked Music Fes-
tival was a decision we felt bereaved by.
But, ultimately, we knew local health care
workers needed our support.
United Way of Clatsop County believes
this is the time to shine a light on the
importance of standing with our health
care workers and beyond. We ask you to
join us in supporting these community
members with your own efforts towards
health citizenship.
Without such heroes, we have little
hope for surviving this calamity, nor any
other crisis the future may bring.
Jen Munson is a disability rights advo-
cate and social worker who serves on the
board of the united Way of Clatsop County.