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THE DAILY ASTORIAN • FRIDAY, ApRIL 5, 2019
OPINION
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PRO-CON
Should the US push to expand NATO?
AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis
German NATO soldiers train in 2018 near Vilnius, Lithuania. The U.S.-led military exercise involved 18,000 soldiers from 19 countries.
PRO: America – and Europe –
need a bigger NATO to
stymie Russia’s ambitions
CON: If US succeeds in
expanding NATO, it would
set stage for another Cold War
W
C
ASHINGTON — Europe needs
sible only if Moscow can break up NATO
NATO. America needs NATO.
and decouple the U.S. from Europe.
You know who else needs NATO?
And there is good reason for NATO to
Vladimir Putin.
keep adding willing nations to its ranks.
The Russian leader has long used the
In a defensive alliance, geography mat-
existence of NATO to justify his antago-
ters. A coherent frontier that keeps the bad
nism toward the West.
guy further and further away is a good
Moscow’s aggressiveness, you see, is
thing. Putin isn’t going away anytime soon,
merely a response to the “threat” NATO
so NATO must consider the geography of
poses to Russian security. It’s malarkey, of
defending its eastern flank for the foresee-
able future.
course — like a burglar claiming it’s your
Freedom matters, too. Denying will-
fault he robbed your house because you had
ing nations the right to participate in collec-
the audacity to buy a new TV.
tive defense would only restrict freedom.
Unlike Putin’s Russia, NATO poses no
threat of aggression. It is and always has
Nor does it make any sense to discourage
been a purely defensive alliance. Even at
aspirant nations from meeting the politi-
cal-military standards to qualify for NATO
the height of the Cold War, NATO har-
bored no designs on Soviet Russia and its
membership.
satellites.
Know what doesn’t matter? Size.
And once the Berlin Wall fell
Many small states that have
and the Soviet Union crumbled
entered NATO have been net con-
tributors to security. They have hit
without a shot being fired, NATO
or are on track to hit the agreed-
welcomed new members to the
upon NATO defense spending tar-
alliance — contributing further to
gets. They participate in NATO mis-
the mutual security of all and the
sions. In terms of manpower and
James
expansion of freedom and democ-
racy in Europe.
Carafano
operational contributions, they kick
NATO and the new Russia lived
in more than they take out — easily
peacefully side-by-side for years,
outperforming many much bigger
until Putin embraced the fiction that, by
countries on a pound-for-pound basis.
increasing its membership, NATO was
Tiny Estonia is a case in point. It easily
somehow encroaching on Russia and threat- meets NATO’s annual defense spending tar-
get of 2 percent of GDP.
ening its security.
Inside and outside the alliance, no one
Meanwhile, big, rich Germany struggles
wants to pick a fight with Russia. Yet
to do devote more than 1 percent of its GDP
Putin’s aggressiveness — from his inva-
to defense; its finance minister recently pro-
posed a budget that would actually reduce
sions of Georgia and Crimea to his mili-
tarism in Ukraine — has made joining the
defense spending after 2020.
alliance even more attractive.
Today, Macedonia is poised to join the
And it’s not just nations who’ve already
alliance. But the prospects of more nations
taken casualties who seek membership.
joining the club anytime soon are dim.
In addition to Georgia and Ukraine,
Yet, NATO’s open door policy is more
Finland and Macedonia are knocking on
than symbolism. It represents what NATO
NATO’s door, membership applications in
is: an alliance of free nation-states commit-
ted to mutual defense cooperation. As long
hand. These countries and more rightly see
NATO as a counter to Russia’s destabilizing as there are rulers like Putin, the need for
that kind of commitment will not diminish.
adventurism.
No wonder Putin wants NATO to stop
Putin knows that. He fears that. It
expanding. It crimps his style.
restrains him. This is no time for NATO to
There is zero likelihood that Putin
remove that restraint.
would stop harassing the alliance if NATO
James Jay Carafano directs the Heri-
stopped taking in new members. Much like tage Foundation think-tank’s research into
matters of national security and foreign
the czars of old, he wants a hard sphere of
relations.
influence over Europe — something pos-
OLUMBUS, Ohio — Expanding
NATO has brought into membership
the North Atlantic Treaty Orga-
a number of former Russian allies —
nization is not a rational step if
Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, East Ger-
many, Poland, Czech Republic, Slo-
the aim is to blunt the ambitions of the
vakia, Slovenia, Montenegro and
government of Russia.
Romania.
The first fallacy is the premise that
Even more problematic for Russia,
Russia has ambitions that need to be
NATO has accepted three countries that
blunted.
were part of the Soviet Union — Lithu-
Despite claims by some that Russia
ania, Latvia and Estonia.
under President Vladimir Putin is try-
ing to reconstitute the Soviet Union in
These expansions set relations
the territory it held before 1991, Russia between Russia and the West on a
downward spiral, following a time after
has been modest in its aims.
the demise of the Soviet Union when it
The only territories in which it has
seemed that the relationship might be
indicated expansionist tendencies have
been territories that were closely linked friendly.
The West — and specifically the
to Russia historically.
United States — assured Russia that
The Crimean Peninsula never had
the weakened posture of Rus-
any connection to Ukraine prior
sia would not be exploited to
to 1954, when Soviet leader
expand NATO. But then NATO
Nikita Khrushchev, for rea-
sons that have never been
accepted one Eastern European
clear, decided to switch it from
country after another into its
the Russian component of the
treaty, which dates from 1949.
Soviet Union to the Ukrainian
Russia considered the West
component.
duplicitous.
John
Crimea had been part of Rus-
The United States should not
sia since the late 18th cen-
Quigley
make the situation even worse
tury, and Crimea’s population
by promoting NATO mem-
bership for more of Russia’s western
was and is predominantly Russian, not
neighbors.
Ukrainian.
Despite the influx, NATO still does
Even Russia’s promotion of sepa-
rationists in eastern Ukraine is a step
not count as members Ukraine, Ser-
bia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova,
that reflects historical links, because
Belarus, Georgia, Macedonia and
in that sector, the population is mixed
Bosnia.
Ukrainian and Russian.
NATO’s expansion has brought a
The Ukraine government had refused
pleas for local autonomy from the pop- dangerous polarization in east-west
ulation of eastern Ukraine, setting the
relations and has increased militariza-
tion on both sides.
stage for a push for separation.
President Donald Trump wants
Even if I am wrong about all that —
new aircraft carriers and upgraded
even if Russia does harbor broad terri-
torial ambitions — expanding NATO is nuclear weapons. He browbeats West-
ern Europe to spend more on its
not a rational policy.
military.
Expanding NATO encourages Rus-
sia to be defensive and to feel the need
Last year Putin test-launched a
to protect itself. In 1939, the Soviet
supersonic missile that he says can pen-
etrate existing U.S. missile defenses.
Union invaded Finland out of fear that
Nazi Germany might make a move into An arms race is not in the interests of
either country.
Finland.
John B. Quigley is a professor at
To date, NATO has expanded sig-
nificantly into Eastern Europe, creating Ohio State University’s Moritz College
in the Kremlin the same jitters it felt in of Law and a leading scholar on U.S.
1939.
relations with Russia.