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THE DAILY ASTORIAN • FRIDAY, JANuARY 25, 2019
OPINION
editor@dailyastorian.com
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PRO-CON
Can a progressive Democrat
win the presidency in 2020?
PRO: A progressive Democrat
will win the presidency in 2020
CON: With the economy humming,
progressivism is a likely loser
W
D
ASHINGTON — In 2016 a
To get closer, he has proposed low-
billionaire, who shows open
ering the age for Medicare eligibility
contempt for people who are
from 65 to 55 or 60 and allowing peo-
not rich, managed to win the votes of
ple of all ages to buy into the program.
the white working-class — often work-
Sanders, along with Massachusetts
ers without college degrees — by a
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, has also pushed
margin of close to 30 percentage points. a variety of bills that would lower pre-
Undoubtedly racism and sexism
scription drug costs.
played a role in this huge victory, but
Drugs are the most rapidly rising
it also mattered that many workers felt
component of health care costs.
that Hillary Clinton sided with the rich
Other areas that will need to be
and powerful against ordinary workers.
addressed include the cost of college
There was some basis for this view.
and child care. There have been a vari-
She was associated with trade deals
ety of proposals put forward by Demo-
in Bill Clinton’s administration, most
crats to make public colleges free or at
notably NAFTA and China’s admission
least affordable, to the poor and mid-
to the WTO, that cost the country
dle-class. The same is true of
millions of manufacturing jobs.
plans to make daycare afford-
The explosion of the trade
able for low and moderate-in-
deficit in the last decade cost the
come families.
country 20 percent of its man-
The United States also needs
ufacturing jobs and devastated
to catch up with the rest of the
communities in states like Penn-
world in providing paid leave
Dean
sylvania, Ohio, Michigan and
for sickness, childbirth and fam-
Baker
Wisconsin. All four of these
ily concerns, and vacation time.
states flipped from Obama to
Here also, there have been a
Trump.
variety of proposals that would move us
Clinton also was associated with the
forward in these areas.
deregulation of the financial industry.
The United States needs to take
This made many of her political allies
stronger measures to slow global warm-
very rich, but the excesses of the indus- ing. Proposals for a “Green New Deal”
try helped to inflate the housing bubble, would create jobs in retrofitting homes
the collapse of which gave us the Great
and businesses as well in developing
Recession.
solar and wind power and other clean
For a Democrat to win in 2020, they
sources of energy.
will have to retake some of the white
This a partial list of areas where
working-class votes lost to Trump in
the Democratic candidates will have
2016. This means pushing an agenda
to propose progressive solutions, but
that promises real benefits to workers.
a big part of the story will be convinc-
The outlines of this agenda are already
ing working-class voters both white
well-known and being pushed by sev-
and non-white that they are on their
eral announced or likely candidates.
side and not working for the rich and
At the top of the list is health care.
powerful.
Polls show this is a top concern for vot-
Several prospective candidates,
ers. While the Affordable Care Act
including both Sanders and Warren, as
extended coverage to tens of millions of well as Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, are
people, many are still not insured. Fur-
well-positioned to make this case.
thermore, premiums and co-pays often
All three can point to decades of
place an enormous burden on those with standing up for ordinary workers. Per-
insurance.
haps other candidates will pass this test
Most of the Democrats considered
as well. But, if Democrats fail to take a
leading contenders have proposed mea- clear stand against the rich and power-
sures to extend coverage.
ful in 2020 they will likely achieve the
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders leads
same result as in 2016.
the way with his push for Medicare for
Dean Baker is a co-founder of
All, although he knows this is not likely the Center for Economic and Policy
to be accomplished in a single step.
Research.
ALLAS — Your father’s Dem-
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders used to be
ocratic Party might have a good
the only self-described democratic socialist
chance at capturing the White
in Congress. Every time he would introduce
House in 2020; your children’s Democratic his socialized-medicine scheme, “Medicare
Party, which is what we have today, faces a for All,” other senators would run for cover
tougher fight.
to avoid any hint of association.
To win the election, Democrats will
At a recent Medicare for All press con-
have to overcome two major obstacles: his- ference, Sanders was surrounded by Dem-
tory and their lurch to the political left.
ocrats, many of whom are vying to be the
They cannot change the first obstacle, and
next president of the United States.
they seemingly don’t want to change the
Democratic presidential hopefuls, and
second.
the party generally, are embracing policies
Let’s start with history: It’s very difficult like those supported by the group Dem-
to beat an incumbent presidential candidate. ocratic Socialists of America: free col-
It has only happened five times in the 30
lege education; free health care; free child
presidential elections since 1900, and most
care and paid family leave; universal basic
of those occurred under extraordi-
income; and a carbon-free econ-
nary circumstances.
omy with only renewable energy
For example, Democrat Franklin
and electric cars.
D. Roosevelt defeated Republican
Of course, “free” means tax-
President Herbert Hoover in 1932,
payer — that’s you — must pay
primarily because of Hoover’s feck-
for it.
less efforts to address the economic
This is a far cry from the Dem-
Merrill
devastation of the Great Depression.
ocratic Party of even President Bill
Matthews
Republican Ronald Reagan
Clinton, who once famously pro-
defeated President Jimmy Car-
claimed “the era of big government
ter in 1980, in part because the economy
is over.” Today’s leading Democrats think
was experiencing record high inflation and
the era of big government has just begun.
interest rates and the Iran hostage debacle.
The mainstream media have become
And Democrat Bill Clinton defeated
co-conspirators in this leap to the left by
President George H.W. Bush in 1992
constantly promoting the most outspoken
because Bush broke his “no new taxes”
pledge and third-party candidate Ross Perot leftists, especially Sanders and Rep. (and
media sensation) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
siphoned off 19 percent of the vote.
of New York. They, and a few others, are
Yes, many people can reasonably
the voices providing the energy and policy
claim that the Trump presidency is also an
ideas driving the Democratic Party.
“extraordinary circumstance,” creating the
The problem for Democratic candidates
opportunity for an election upset.
is
that
America is still a moderate to cen-
Even so, when the economy is doing
ter-right country.
well — and if the various investigations
A 2018 Gallup poll found that 35 per-
don’t reveal serious presidential wrongdo-
cent
of Americans described themselves
ing — history overwhelmingly favors the
as
conservative
and another 35 percent as
incumbent.
moderate.
Only
26 percent claimed to be
The second factor working against a
liberal.
Democratic upset victory is the party’s
Lurching to the left may win donations,
increasing leftward shift to democratic
enthusiastic
volunteers and even the Dem-
socialism.
ocratic
presidential
nomination. But it will
The Gallup polling company reports that
almost
certainly
lose
the election.
57 percent of Democrats have a positive
To
be
sure,
President
Donald Trump
view of socialism, as opposed to only 37
faces some re-election headwinds, many
percent of all voters.
It wasn’t that long ago when many Dem- of his own making. But the biggest factor
in favor of his re-election will be running
ocrats were widely respected for their
thoughtful, moderate leadership: Sens. Sam against a democratic socialist, in fact if not
in name.
Nunn of Georgia, Lloyd Bentsen of Texas
Merrill Matthews is a resident scholar
and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, to name
a few. Those days are gone.
with the Institute for Policy Innovation.