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THE DAILY ASTORIAN • FRIDAY, JANuARY 18, 2019
OPINION
editor@dailyastorian.com
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PRO-CON
Should US beef up its nuclear arsenal?
RU-RTR Russian Television
A computer simulation shows the Avangard hypersonic vehicle being released from booster rockets. Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted about his country’s prospective nuclear weapons,
saying they are years and even decades ahead of foreign designs.
CON: Scrap nuclear arms race, use
PRO: America’s nuclear force
must match Russia’s and then some money to benefit people on both sides
W
ASHINGTON — “If you’re not
The Trump administration withdrew
moving forward, you’re fall-
from INF because of Russian cheating
ing behind.” It’s a bromide, yes,
and signaled it might not renew the new
but undeniably true when talking about the START when that agreement expires.
state of our nuclear weapons program.
This puts the administration on a colli-
In this area, America is falling fur-
sion course with the new chairman of the
ther and further behind our competitors. It
House Armed Services Committee, Rep.
leaves us more vulnerable, and the world
Adam Smith (D-Wash.). He wants the
less safe.
administration to “redo” the Nuclear Pos-
ture Review, trash its modernization plans
Deterrence remains the surest way to
prevent a future nuclear crisis, and that
and forget about upgrading the triad.
requires modernizing and upgrading Amer-
This is not a case of Smith just want-
ing to “do the opposite” of Trump or feeling
ica’s nuclear arsenal.
President Barack Obama took U.S.
nostalgia for the road to zero. He is a long-
standing critic of U.S. nuclear policy and
nuclear policy in the opposite direction.
the 12-year, $1.2 trillion price tag to
Deemphasizing the tried and true
modernize it.
deterrence model, he took us on
The problem is that Smith is
a journey on the “road to nuclear
stuck in the rose-colored mindset of
zero.”
An early milestone was the U.S.
the post-Cold War era when folks
commitment to the new START
thought nuclear competition was
nuclear agreement with the Rus-
over and done. It’s not.
sians, which placed limits on the
James
The great power competition
Carafano
types and numbers of nuclear
between the U.S. and Russia is
weapons each country could have.
back, and nuclear rivalry is part of
It was one of the most lopsided
it. Stability will come from strength
pacts in history. Only the U.S. had to cut
not weakness.
its arsenal. The Russians could build more
That’s the lesson of the last decade.
— which, in fact, they did. The supposed
While we walked back the U.S. nuclear
“denuclearization” agreement actually
deterrent, both Russia and China
resulted in more nuclear weapons — only
accelerated.
all of the new ones were Russian.
In showing strength now, Washington
Further, the agreement did not cover
won’t be starting a news arms race. It’s
tactical nuclear weapons where the Rus-
already started, with Moscow in the lead.
sians already had an overwhelming
But by getting back in the race, Washing-
ton may get the other competitors to back
advantage.
The Russians went on to cheat under
down.
another pact, the Intermediate Range
At a bare minimum we should modern-
ize all elements of triad: build the new B-21
Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, by introduc-
ing a new class of nuclear weapons.
bomber; fully deploy the Ohio class subma-
rine and develop the Ground Based Strate-
Again, Obama opted to lead the way
gic Deterrent, the replacement for the aging
to denuclearization by doing nothing. The
Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile.
result: Putin’s arsenal became even larger
The U.S. should also pursue low nuclear
and more diverse, threatening the delicate
yield submarine-launched ballistic and
balance of deterrent power.
Eventually, even Obama recognized the cruise missile capabilities, and continue
imprudence of allowing Russian nuclear
investing in nuclear infrastructure and the
might to go unchecked and started a mod-
capacity test nuclear weapons, if needed.
est modernization program of our triad of
Like it or not, we live in an age of
nuclear delivery systems — air, land and
nuclear proliferation. “Peace through
sea.
strength” remains the best path forward, and
Under President Donald Trump, Amer-
strength requires both a deterrent nuclear
ica took an off-ramp from the road to zero. force and effective missile defenses.
The official U.S. Nuclear Posture Review
James Jay Carafano is a 25-year Army
called for a robust upgrade of our nuclear
veteran and vice president of Defense and
deterrent and negotiating arms control
Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage
agreements from a position of strength.
Foundation, a conservative think tank.
C
OLUMBUS, Ohio — In December, impetus to Russia.
Russia tested a new weapons deliv-
That is hardly of Trump’s doing
ery system that it calls Avangard.
alone. The Obama administration tick-
led the Russian bear in 2016 by installing
Launched by a rocket, a vehicle that
could carry a nuclear payload detaches and a ground-based missile defense system
in Romania, supposedly to deter rogue
glides back to earth at 20 times the speed
states in the Middle East. But Russia saw
of sound.
it as a threat, calling it an “attempt to
In major fanfare accompanying the
destroy the strategic balance” in Europe.
test, Russian President Vladimir Putin
At the same time, Obama was pushing
claimed that the system can evade any
NATO activities closer to the Russian bor-
existing missile defenses.
der. In 2017 U.S. and other NATO-coun-
In a document titled “Nuclear Posture
try forces began regular deployments in
Review” that it released last February,
eastern European countries that used to be
the Trump administration made its case
part of the Soviet Union. Again, Russia
for mass spending to keep ahead of Rus-
sia on nuclear weapons.
took our action as a threat.
The document stated that Rus-
A few months ago Trump
sia would “deploy new nuclear
said that the United States will
warheads and launchers” as part
withdraw from the Intermedi-
ate Nuclear Force treaty, a 1987
of a “complete modernization of
agreement with Russia that has
its nuclear arsenal.”
kept both countries from deploy-
The Trump administration,
ing nuclear missiles in Europe for
John
as stated in the review, plans to
Quigley
the last 30 years.
continue a nuclear moderniza-
tion plan initiated by the Obama
Trump says that the withdrawal
administration.
is a response to Russian violations
of that treaty, but the withdrawal fuels
Obama’s plan was no small pota-
toes, calling for over a trillion dollars in
Russian trepidations.
expenditures over the next 30 years.
While Russia and the United States
Trump also wants to develop sev-
are far and away the countries with
eral pricy new nuclear weapons systems: most of the world’s nuclear weapons,
a submarine-launched ballistic mis-
the U.S.-Russia tension is not the only
sile (SLBM) and a new nuclear subma-
element in the overall nuclear weapon
rine-launched cruise missile (SLCM).
picture.
Trump’s review acknowledges that
We are trying to force Iran to forgo
the upgrade costs are “substantial,” com- developing nukes. Iran is a party, as are
ing to 6.4 percent of the overall defense
we, to the 1968 Nuclear Non-Prolifer-
ation Treaty, which aims at dissuading
budget.
non-nuclear states from acquiring nuclear
The Arms Control Association, a
weapons.
Washington-based think tank, reports
As an incentive to non-nuclear powers
its own projection of the cost as much
higher. The Congressional Budget Office, to stay on the sidelines, the treaty includes
a pledge by the nuclear powers to reduce
which has also weighed in on the issue,
their existing nuclear arsenals. By build-
agrees on a much higher likely price tag.
ing up instead of down, we undermine our
The Obama projections plus the
message to Iran.
Trump add-ons envisage expenditures
Nor does our build-up help as we ask
well above what Russia is spending.
other countries to pressure North Korea to
The policy question today is whether the
scrap its incipient nuclear arsenal.
United States should commit to these
Both Russia and the United States are
expenditures.
wasting billions that could be put to bet-
The answer the Trump administration
ter use improving the lives of their pop-
does not want to hear is a resounding
ulations. The only sure outcome of an
“No.” But that is the answer it needs to
hear. We should not keep upping the ante arms race is that there are no winners.
John B. Quigley is distinguished
with Russia.
professor of law at The Ohio State
It takes two to wage an arms race,
university.
and we, unfortunately, have given