OPINION
6A
THE DAILY ASTORIAN • MONDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2017
Founded in 1873
DAVID F. PERO, Publisher & Editor
JIM VAN NOSTRAND, Managing Editor
JEREMY FELDMAN, Circulation Manager
DEBRA BLOOM, Business Manager
JOHN D. BRUIJN, Production Manager
CARL EARL, Systems Manager
OUR VIEW
Learn the lessons
of natural disasters
I
n Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, residents and
authorities had several days to brace for a looming disaster in
the form of this year’s horrendous hurricanes. In hindsight,
they didn’t do enough. There are things we can learn from their
experiences.
Thanks to modern atmospheric science, the Caribbean islands,
Texas and Florida all were put on warning about giant storms
while they were still far off in the Atlantic. In each case, the hur-
ricanes’ exact tracks gradually came into focus in forecasting
models, with the odds of harm spiking from very little to very
likely. It was like watching from a distance as a drunken driver
swerved back and forth across the highway before finally crash-
ing into a gas pump.
Until advances in geology and our understanding of Earth’s
plate tectonics initiated in the 1990s by professor Brian Atwater,
our coast was completely ignorant about subduction-zone earth-
quakes and tsunamis. It is as if we were Caribbean villagers who
not only didn’t know about the hurricane barreling toward us
from just over the horizon, but didn’t even suspect such disasters
were capable of happening. Atwater and his colleagues opened
our eyes.
After 20 years of research, scientists believe that in the next
30 years, the Pacific Northwest has about a 10 percent chance
of a magnitude 8 to 9 megathrust earthquake on the Cascadia
Subduction Zone. Ten percent isn’t very frightening and 30 years
is more than a third of an average American lifetime. Odds are
pretty good that we living here today will be long gone before
this epic cataclysm occurs. On the other hand, when it was still
forming in the Atlantic, the odds were remote of Hurricane Maria
hammering Puerto Rico. Yet it happened.
Average people — including our elected leaders — are bad
at assessing risk and understanding probabilities. On top of that
weakness, there are inherent limits to how much to prepare for
threats that are legitimate but which have uncertain or distant
timelines. We all know we’re going to need to retire someday, but
how many make enough effort to save for that eventuality? It’s
even easier to procrastinate about disaster preparedness.
The mess in Puerto Rico informs us that even with the vast
assets of federal government, getting help to where it’s needed
can take weeks after a worst-case disaster. It’s possible the Trump
administration or territorial government could be doing better, but
even the most competent agencies are going to be hard pressed to
deliver medical triage, potable water, rations and fuel to remote
areas where highways and bridges have been destroyed.
Internalize this lesson
On this coast, we and agencies can internalize this lesson. We
face an even worse challenge, in that our low-lying areas will
have to be abandoned in a hurry and will be uninhabitable after
a quake and tsunami, perhaps for months. Collecting supplies at
homes near sea level may be a waste of time.
State and federal agencies need to systematically pre-stage
drinking water, long shelf life foods and basic medical supplies
in secure, strategic locations on
high ground. Former Pacific County
We face an
Sheriff John Didion used to envi-
even worse
sion stockpiling barrels of peanut
butter in old cargo containers up in
challenge,
the woods, saying quake survivors
in that our
might not enjoy the taste, but would
appreciate that it kept them alive
low-lying
while waiting for air drops and naval
areas will
rescue ships. He wasn’t far wrong.
have to be
For a small fraction of the federal
funds once spent on fallout shelters,
abandoned
sites in the Northwest’s coastal hills
in a hurry.
could be prepared to avoid deaths
and alleviate suffering. Helicopter
pads, airstrips, Wi-Fi hot spots and generators are among other
things that could be dealt with in advance.
Other lessons
Other lessons from this year’s hurricanes:
• Money spent on science saves lives. The behavior of sub-
duction zones still isn’t well understood. Perhaps research can
provide reliable clues about when the Cascadia zone is about to
break loose.
• Even in the worst circumstances, individual actions do make
a difference. The enormity of threats can’t be allowed to paralyze
us into inaction. It’s up to each of us to help our neighbors when-
ever need arises, and to take common sense precautions on our
own behalf — everything from keeping bottled water on hand
to signing up for first aid and Community Emergency Response
Team classes.
It’s noteworthy that Oregon last week received a $354,000
grant from National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program to help
improve the resilience of coastal communities. This is a small
down payment toward the much more extensive preparations we
must undertake.
For more information about tsunami preparedness, visit
OregonTsunami.org.
Guns and the soul of America
By DAVID BROOKS
New York Times News Service
T
he pattern is by now numb-
ingly familiar. A lone lunatic
murders a mass of innocent
people in some
public location.
There is a heartfelt
cry for tighter
control on gun
ownership. Then
state legislatures
swing into action.
They pass a series of laws loosening
controls on gun ownership.
As David Frum points out in
The Atlantic, the five years since
the shootings at Sandy Hook
Elementary School “have seen one
of the most intense bursts of gun
legislation in U.S. history.” More
than two dozen states have passed
new gun laws. And in almost all
cases these laws have made it easier
to buy or carry guns.
Wisconsin eliminated its 48-hour
waiting period to buy handguns.
Ohio allowed concealed-carry weap-
ons to be brought into day care facil-
ities and airports. Florida changed its
“stand your ground” law to make it
harder to prosecute gun owners.
The expansion of gun rights
is directly related to the epidemic
of mass shootings. A study by
Michael Luca, Deepak Malhotra
and Christopher Poliquin of Harvard
Business School found that a single
mass shooting leads to a 15 percent
increase in firearm bills introduced
in the same state’s legislature within
a year.
In Republican states, they
found, a mass killing “increases the
number of enacted laws that loosen
gun restrictions by 75 percent.” In
Democratic states, mass shootings
have no significant effect on laws
passed.
So why are lawmakers respond-
ing to mass killings by loosening
gun laws? The wrong answer is
that the NRA is this maliciously
powerful force that controls legis-
lators through campaign dollars. In
fact, the NRA spends a minuscule
amount on campaign contributions
compared with the vast oceans of
dough washing through our politics.
The reality is that in some places
people want these laws. It’s true that
individual gun control measures —
like banning bump stocks — have
popular support, but overall, the gun
rights people are winning the hearts
and minds of America. In 2000,
according to a Pew survey, only
29 percent of Americans supported
more gun rights and 67 percent sup-
ported more gun control. By 2016,
52 percent of Americans supported
more gun rights and only 46 percent
supported more control.
This gigantic shift in public
opinion hasn’t come about because
the facts support the gun rights
position. The research doesn’t over-
whelmingly support either side. Gun
AP Photo/Gregory Bull
Manuela Barela passes crosses set up to honor those killed during
the mass shooting in Las Vegas.
control proposals don’t seriously
impinge freedom; on the other hand,
there’s not much evidence that they
would prevent many attacks.
Besides, better facts tend to be
counterproductive on hot-button
issues like gun control. As Tali
Sharot notes in her book “The
Influential Mind,” when you present
people with evidence that goes
against their deeply held beliefs,
the evidence doesn’t sway them.
Instead, they invent more reasons
their prior position was actually
correct. The smarter a person is,
the greater his or her ability to
rationalize and reinterpret discordant
information, and the greater the
polarizing boomerang effect is likely
to be.
We need
another grand
synthesis ...
a synthesis
that is neither
redneck nor
hipster but
draws from
both worlds to
create a new
social vision.
The real reason the gun rights
side is winning is postindustrializa-
tion. The gun issue has become an
epiphenomenon of a much larger
conflict over values and identity.
A century ago, the forces of
industrialization swept over agri-
cultural America, and monetary
policy became the proxy fight in
that larger conflict. Today, people in
agricultural and industrial America
legitimately feel that their way of
life is being threatened by postin-
dustrial society. The members of this
resistance have seized on issues like
guns, immigration, the flag as places
to mobilize their counterassault.
Guns are a proxy for larger issues.
Four in 10 American house-
holds own guns. As Hahrie Han, a
political science professor, noted
in The Times Wednesday, there are
more gun clubs and gun shops in
this country than McDonald’s. For
many people, the gun is a way to
protect against crime. But it is also
an identity marker. It stands for
freedom, self-reliance and the ability
to control your own destiny. Gun
rights are about living in a country
where families are tough enough
and responsible enough to stand up
for themselves in a dangerous world.
The populist revolt is about
halfway through taking over the
Republican Party. It is winning
victories on gun, immigration and
trade policy. The way to fuel this
populism is to feed the elites-versus-
common-man narrative, as so many
have self-righteously done this
week.
The only way to make progress
on guns control is to forge some
sort of synthesis on the larger
postindustrialization/populism war.
Over a century ago, industrialization
brought on a culture clash between
agrarian populists and the genteel
Victorian aristocrats. Theodore
Roosevelt transcended the fight by
inventing a new American nation-
alism. Meanwhile, the progressives
cleaned up elite corruption and
nurtured a square deal for those
being left behind by technological
change. Cultural leaders introduced
new institutions and community
forms, like the Boy Scouts and the
Settlement House, that drew from
both cultures and replaced them.
Today we need another grand
synthesis that can move us beyond
the current divide, a synthesis that
is neither redneck nor hipster but
draws from both worlds to create a
new social vision. Progress on guns
will be possible when the culture
war subsides, but not before.
WHERE TO WRITE
• U.S. Rep. Suzanne Bonamici
(D): 439 Cannon House Office
Building, Washington, D.C., 20515.
Phone: 202- 225-0855. Fax 202-225-
9497. District office: 12725 SW Mil-
likan Way, Suite 220, Beaverton, OR
97005. Phone: 503-469-6010. Fax
503-326-5066. Web: bonamici.house.
gov/
• U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D): 313
Hart Senate Office Building, Wash-
ington, D.C. 20510. Phone: 202-224-
3753. Web: www.merkley.senate.gov
• U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden (D):
221 Dirksen Senate Office Building,
Washington, D.C., 20510. Phone:
202-224-5244. Web: www.wyden.
senate.gov
• State Rep. Brad Witt (D): State
Capitol, 900 Court Street N.E., H-373,
Salem, OR 97301. Phone: 503-986-
1431. Web: www.leg.state.or.us/witt/
Email: rep.bradwitt@state.or.us
• State Rep. Deborah Boone (D):
900 Court St. N.E., H-481, Salem,
OR 97301. Phone: 503-986-1432.
Email: rep.deborah boone@state.
or.us District office: P.O. Box 928,
Cannon Beach, OR 97110. Phone:
503-986-1432. Web: www.leg.state.
or.us/ boone/
• State Sen. Betsy Johnson (D):
State Capitol, 900 Court St. N.E.,
S-314, Salem, OR 97301. Telephone:
503-986-1716. Email: sen.betsy john-
son@state.or.us Web: www.betsy-
johnson.com District Office: P.O.
Box R, Scappoose, OR 97056. Phone:
503-543-4046. Fax: 503-543-5296.
Astoria office phone: 503-338-1280.
• Port of Astoria: Executive
Director, 10 Pier 1 Suite 308, Asto-
ria, OR 97103. Phone: 503-741-3300.
Email: admin@portofastoria.com
• Clatsop County Board of Com-
missioners: c/o County Manager, 800
Exchange St., Suite 410, Astoria, OR
97103. Phone: 503-325-1000.