OPINION
6A
THE DAILY ASTORIAN • TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 2017
Founded in 1873
DAVID F. PERO, Publisher & Editor
LAURA SELLERS, Managing Editor
BETTY SMITH, Advertising Manager
CARL EARL, Systems Manager
JOHN D. BRUIJN, Production Manager
DEBRA BLOOM, Business Manager
OUR VIEW
Coast’s ‘charmed’
economy is a
double-edged sword
SOUTHERN EXPOSURE
T
wo state economists delivered a sterling presentation last
week at the Columbia Forum that painted a clear picture
of the double-edge sword we face — the attraction and
charm of the North Coast and the economic challenges .
The two, Erik Knoder, who provides economic data for four
coastal counties including Clatsop, and Josh Lehner, from the
state Offi ce of Economic Analysis, explained how our proximity
to Portland is both an economic help and hindrance.
The county’s average income is better than two-thirds of rural
counties in the U.S., but nationwide only 2 percent of rural coun-
ties have more expensive homes. As Lehner said, “There’s only
so much coastline in America” where people can live. About
one-quarter of North Coast residences are classifi ed as second
homes, fueling our housing crunch. The crunch is amplifi ed by
building rates 40 percent below the early 2000s because wage
levels prevent potential buyers from obtaining fi nancing.
Both economists noted Clatsop County is closer in economic
performance to Portland and far ahead of other rural areas in
recovery from the Great Recession. The other edge of the sword,
though, is that while we’re experiencing job, wage and popula-
tion growth, those upticks are in lower-wage positions largely
in hospitality, leisure and retail. Job losses are occurring in mid-
dle-wage manufacturing and offi ce support positions, mirroring
the disturbing nationwide trend of a shrinking middle class.
Population growth has mostly been retirees and late-career
professionals, while younger age groups have migrated to urban
areas with higher wages.
And after eight years of nationwide economic expansion,
at some point there’ll be another recession, as their always is,
Lehner said.
So what does it mean?
For a while, at least, we can expect economic growth. But
the same challenges will exist without further upward shifts in
wages and job types. That in turn shows the strategic need for
sound planning and economic diversifi cation.
Local leaders need to pursue those goals while also working
to retain the full essence of the region’s charm and roots. It’s a
challenge, but it can be overcome.
Cascadia’s potential
effects serve as yet
another wakeup call
astern Oregonians may not even notice it if it happens. A
low rumble may be all they feel of what would be the most
destructive natural disaster in this country’s history.
Cascadia — a massive earthquake off the Pacifi c coast register-
ing above 8.0 on the Richter scale.
The quake itself would likely leave a disaster zone hundreds of
miles wide. Thousands of people would be dead or missing. The
Oregon Coast may well be left unrecognizable. Everything west
of Interstate 5 in Oregon and Washington state would be damaged.
For those who could get out of nature’s way, our evacuation-zone
options would include Eastern Oregon.
As we learned in a fi ve-part series published this past week in
T he Daily Astorian, short-term effects in Eastern Oregon would
not be immediately catastrophic. But power and cellular service
would be severely effected. Gasoline and groceries would become
scarce, especially with the infl ux of evacuees.
Coastal evacuees would say other areas got off easy, but the
severe impact would be felt throughout the Northwest for at least a
generation.
Hundreds of thousands – if not millions – would be homeless.
The Northwest’s economic hubs would be devastated. The infl ux
of evacuees to safe zones would be enormous.
The series, written by Jade McDowell and initially reported in
our sister paper, the East Oregonian, serves as another wakeup call
for emergency preparedness, even in zones presumed safe. While
we cannot rely on a specifi c Cascadia reality, we must try to miti-
gate its potential effects.
Government can’t make all potentially needed investments in
preparedness at a time when the state budget is already trying to
climb out of its own sinkhole.
What we can depend on, though, is ourselves.
We can learn lessons from Minamisoma, New Orleans and San
Francisco. We can be personally prepared. We should talk with our
loved ones about emergency preparation, evacuation options and
communication plans. We should keep an emergency food and a
water supply, and include fl ashlights, candles and emergency radios.
Even if the “big one” doesn’t shake in our lifetimes, lesser emer-
gencies will come our way.
We can be ready, come what may.
E
Submitted Photo
Cape Falcon
Marine Reserves.
Feeling ‘blue’ at Falcon
Cove Marine Reserve
By R.J. MARX
The Daily Astorian
uring a late February pre-
sentation, Jane Lubchenco,
a distinguished professor in
the Oregon State University College
of Science, shared
lessons about ways
“to use the ocean
without using it
up.”
In her presenta-
tion, the professor
pointed out that achieving the long-
term potential of blue growth — sus-
tainable management of our oceans
— will require aligning short- and
long-term economic incentives to
achieve a diverse mix of benefi ts.
“Blue growth refers to long-term
strategies for supporting sustainable
growth in the marine and maritime
sectors as a whole,” she said.
That philosophy is to be seen in
the designation of the Cape Falcon
Marine Preserve, which celebrated
its fi rst birthday a little over one year
ago.
At 12.4 square miles, Cape Fal-
con, along the coast from Manzanita
to Falcon Cove, is the second larg-
est of Oregon’s fi ve marine reserves,
where ocean development and
removal of sea life are prohibited.
“They mean no take, no devel-
opment, no ocean animal or plant
can be removed, and nothing can
be developed there without a scien-
tifi c permit,” Friends of Cape Falcon
Reserve Coordinator Chrissy Smith
said this month. “Cape Falcon unites
land and marine conservation.”
The reserve is located in the
ocean just off the northern coast
between Falcon Cove and Man-
zanita. Cape Falcon is one of fi ve
marine reserves in the state — Cas-
cade Head, Otter Rock, Cape Per-
petua and Redfi sh Rock are the
others.
D
A tide change?
A month after its debut, Cape Fal-
con played host to a statewide sum-
mit, with experts weighing in on our
changing ocean habitat. More than
80 state agencies, wildlife and con-
servation groups, professors, volun-
teers and civic leaders joined in “A
Tide Change: Inspiring Engagement
in Oregon ‘s Marine Reserves.”
As director of the Science of
Marine Reserves Project at Oregon
State University, Kirsten Grorud-
Colvert presented evidence that
within 124 marine reserves the mass
of animals and plants increased 446
percent on average after protections,
the number of animals and plants in
an area increased 166 percent, ani-
mals’ body sizes increased 28 percent
and the number of species increased
21 percent. Heavily fi shed species
increased most dramatically.
Anne Nelson, of the Marine Pro-
tected Areas Center, a partnership
with the National Oceanic and Atmo-
spheric Administration and U.S.
Submitted Photo
Jane Lubchenco, a distin-
guished professor in the Oregon
State University College of Sci-
ence, seeks to “use the oceans
without using them up.”
Department of the Interior, encour-
aged the growth of “sustainable
tourism.”
“We have this unbelievably beau-
tiful resource that people want to
see,” Nelson said. “How can we let
people in, but still make sure areas
are protected?”
Avian Conservation Manager Joe
Liebezeit of the Audubon Society of
Portland heralded the diverse bird
population which could benefi t from
marine protections.
A community volunteer at New-
port’s Otter Rock, Karen Driscoll,
said Cape Falcon was “outstanding”
because of its diversity, with “some-
thing of everything: grasslands, for-
est, rocky headwater.”
Could Cape Falcon fulfi ll its goals
without compromising an economy
dedicated to tourism?
Fishing impact
Ten years ago, fi shermen were
concerned about the impact of plac-
ing land off-limits to fi shing in pro-
tected areas.
“There are areas there that hav-
en’t been touched with any kind of
gear,” a commercial trawler said at a
hearing reported in The Daily Asto-
rian in 2008. “For them to say we
need more area to study seems like a
back door approach to adding more
restrictions.”
Today, Cape Falcon Marine
Reserve is off-limits to fi shing up to
the low tide line and all rocky inter-
tidal areas in the marine reserve are
protected. “Fishermen are respecting
that rule,” Smith said.
Tamara Mautner, owner of
Garibaldi Deep Sea Fishing, brings
deep-sea fi shing enthusiasts up the
North Coast.
Cape Falcon Marine Reserve has
“not really had a whole lot of effect
in terms of taking away our fi shing
grounds,” Mautner said. Fishermen
were more impacted by restrictions
at reserves along the central and
southern coasts, Mautner said. Cape
Falcon’s designation did take away
“a couple of places we like to fi sh
sometimes, but nothing that’s our
main bread and butter.”
“If it helps people feel they’re
doing something good, that’s great,”
Mautner said. “We all want there
to be a lot of fi sh out there — us
maybe more than anybody, because
we depend on it. The main thing
that’s happening right now is we’re
trying to make sure our fi shing
grounds don’t get taken away any
further than they have been.”
Connected to the reserve are two
7.6-mile marine protected areas,
where some fi shing activities are
allowed.
Cannon Beach Chamber of Com-
merce Executive Director Court
Carrier said he had seen “no push-
back” from visitors seeking to fi sh
North Coast waters.
“If we had more of a diversifi ed
economy, and we had a lot of fi shing
boats or a marina, we’d hear about it
a lot,” Carrier said. “I don’t think it’s
impacting people’s ability to make a
living out there on the ocean.”
Tourist attraction
As early as 2009, then chamber
director Jeffrey Jewel labeled eco-
tourism “one of the big boom busi-
nesses of the future.”
In a spring 2015 presentation to
the Cannon Beach City Council,
Friends of the Cape Falcon Reserve
volunteer chairwoman Nadia Gard-
ner called ecotourism a “burgeoning
market.”
“We’ll see if we will get charter
boats or ecotourism,” Gardner said.
“I’d love that.”
“It’s one of our missions for the
chamber of commerce and our mar-
keting committee to implement sus-
tainable travel as part of our man-
tra,” Carrier said last week. “How
do we make that connection to the
visitor? I think it’s a good thing, but
as far as a direct connect right now,
it remains to be seen.”
More than 700,000 visitors vis-
ited Short Sands Beach last year,
Cape Falcon coordinator Smith said.
“The ocean’s big and when you
parcel off a portion, without much
effort, a marine reserve will become
a destination location,” she said.
“Our stance is to encourage it, but
to encourage people to be conser-
vation-minded while they’re here.
We’re trying to take the stance:
‘Please come visit, but let’s talk
about the consequences of our
choices and actions.’”
Smith said she foresees speak-
ers’ programs, interpretative guides,
hikes and even a boat tour.
“We really just want people to be
aware it’s there,” Smith said. “It’s
such a new marine reserve. A lot of
people come and they’re not aware
it’s there. We want them to under-
stand know it’s something Oregon
is doing.”
R.J. Marx is The Daily Astorian’s
South County reporter and editor
of the Seaside Signal and Cannon
Beach Gazette.