5A THE DAILY ASTORIAN • MONDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2017 Recovery six months after Cascadia could still be grim This is the fourth part of a series on a potential Cascadia Subduction Zone disaster Hurricane Katrina’s aftermath offers some lessons By JADE McDOWELL EO Media Group As those in charge of emer- gency preparedness try to understand what the aftermath of Cascadia might look like six months after the quake, Hurricane Katrina can offer some lessons. The hurricane hit New Orleans on Aug. 29, 2005, breaching levees and flood- ing 80 percent of the city. An estimated 1,800 people were killed by the hurricane and its aftermath and more than 1.3 million evacuees from the region submitted aid appli- cations to the Federal Emer- gency Management Agency from new addresses across all 50 states. Six months later, the Tulsa World reported only 38 per- cent of New Orleans residents had returned to the city. Half of the 60 million cubic yards of debris had been removed from the city, and only one third of the city’s struc- tures had working electric- ity. Where utilities had been restored “Help Wanted” signs decorated every business win- dow, the newspaper reported, and restaurants served limited menus. At a morgue near Baton Rouge, 86 bodies remained AP Photo/David J. Phillip A man moves items damaged by floodwaters in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 in Slidell, La., near New Orleans. Emergency responders look to the disaster as a guide for what to expect in the months after a potential massive earthquake and tsunami in the Pacific Northwest. unidentified. More than 2,000 people were still listed as missing. Some of them had turned up safe without rela- tives notifying the govern- ment, but authorities estimated there were still hundreds of bodies that had been washed out to sea or were still buried in rubble. Only 20 of the city’s 128 public schools were oper- ational, and more than 48,000 families were living in FEMA trailers. Some families never returned to Louisiana. Still empty and rotting Umatilla County commis- sioner Larry Givens said he visited New Orleans three years ago and saw hundreds of homes still sitting empty and rotting. Some homeown- ers died, while others gave up after being defrauded by fake contractors who took their money to rebuild and disap- peared. Some found new jobs and new lives in places like Houston, which took in an estimated 250,000 refugees. “Those people left and for every week they were gone, that many more said ‘Forget it,’” Givens said. He said in the event of a Cascadia earthquake, Umatilla County would also likely have people who decided to stay in Eastern Oregon after fleeing the west side of the state. The state’s Cascadia Subduction Zone Catastrophic Response plan notes that east side hotels, motels, empty buildings, fore- closed housing and other avail- able spaces will all be used for temporary housing. Even if refugees wanted to return home, the state esti- mates it will take six months to a year to restore water and sewer services to the val- ley and one to three years to restore it to the coastal cities. Recovery from Hurricane Katrina was hindered in part by the confusing patchwork of overlapping jurisdictions that allowed agencies to pass the buck or caused them to duplicate efforts. Tom Hebert, a public policy consultant liv- ing on the Umatilla Indian Reservation, wrote a policy paper afterward proposing that the federal government create regional development authorities to coordinate a sin- gle response to natural disas- ters. Their locations around the country would be based on likely disaster scenarios. “Cascadia would play into the scientifically placed, prep- ositioned authorities,” Hebert said. Alphabet soup For now, however, the state’s emergency plan for Cascadia describes the under- taking of rebuilding utilities and other infrastructure with this alphabet soup: “Deploy Federal and State teams to evaluate damage and estab- lish priorities: OEM and FEMA Public Assistance Pro- gram and Technical Assistance Contractor staff. ODOT and FHWA (roads and bridges), ORWARN, DEQ, U.S. EPA (water and wastewater facil- ities), and PUC, ODOE, USACE (power, levees, and water control facilities).” Joe Franell, chairman of the Oregon Broadband Advi- sory Council, said the recov- ery phase will take place in a situation where the inter- net, and by extension banking services like debit cards, will be down all over the state for “months.” “For some period of time we will be a cash and barter society,” he said. Franell said how quickly the shelves are restocked in stores will vary on a busi- ness-by-business basis, depending on their prepared- ness and how their suppliers were affected. In such conditions it will be tempting for Umatilla County residents to become refu- gees themselves, and ride out the first six months or so with family in another state. How- ever, fuel for vehicles and gen- erators is not expected to be available to regular citizens for “months and months,” so if a person’s gas tank was almost empty when the earthquake hit they might not be going anywhere. The best thing people can do, then, Franell said, is work to be personally prepared and to help their communities and neighborhoods prepare to get through Cascadia together. Rebuilding from the ruins of disaster This is the final part of a series on a potential Cascadia Subduction Zone disaster. Cascadia’s impacts would last for years By JADE McDOWELL EO Media Group As Oregonians prepare for a Cascadia earthquake, they face the daunting idea that some- day life will change drastically for the entire region — without warning. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has esti- mated a decades-long recov- ery. “When it happens, it will change the Pacific Northwest for our lifetimes,” Joe Franell said. Franell, as CEO of Eastern Oregon Telecomm and chair- man of the Oregon Broadband Advisory Council, is one of the many people working to pre- pare for the worst. They know the next Cas- cadia event may not happen in their lifetime. Based on geo- logical evidence of past quakes over 2,000 years, scientists say that in the next 50 years there is a 1 in 3 chance that a partial slip of the Cascadia Subduc- tion Zone will cause an earth- quake of at least an 8.0 mag- nitude, while there is a 1 in 10 chance of a full slip that would cause an earthquake 9.0 or higher. But they also know they must act on the knowledge they have. If the odds are against us and Cascadia hits sooner rather than later, preparation will save lives. And after the time for saving lives is over, prepara- tion could also help save the economy. 8 million people More than 8 million people live west of the Cascades in the Cascadia zone, which stretches from Northern California to southern British Columbia. The region is home to major companies including Nike, Amazon, Boeing and Micro- soft, and data centers for tech companies like Facebook and Google dot the region. Seattle and Portland alone represent $450 billion in annual economic activity, according to the Cascadia Rising exercise scenario, and billions more are generated through coastal ports that will most certainly be destroyed by a major earth- quake and tsunami. The state estimates that if Cascadia happened now it would take three to five years to rebuild all the roads and bridges that collapsed during the earthquake. The economic impact of such destruction would be felt across the country. When Japan experienced a magnitude 9.0 earthquake in 2011, one year later the Japan Times reported that 644 companies had gone into bankruptcy because of the earthquake, leaving behind $8 billion in liabilities and shed- ding 11,412 jobs. The Oregon Resilience Plan, written by a state com- mittee to educate legislators on what needs to be done to pre- pare for Cascadia, estimates $32 billion in economic losses for Oregon after Cascadia, unless the state implements major seismic upgrades to buildings, roads, bridges, air- ports and utility infrastructure. “We cannot avoid the future earthquake, but we can choose either a future in which the earthquake results in grim dam- age and losses and a society diminished for a generation, or a future in which the earth- quake is a manageable disas- ter without lasting impact,” the report reads. “We need to start preparing now by assessing the vulnerability of our build- ings, lifelines, and social sys- tems, and then developing and implementing a sustained pro- gram of replacement, retro- fit, and redesign to make Ore- gon resilient to the next great earthquake.” “We know how to engineer buildings, roads, and power lines to withstand this earth- quake; the hard part will be to Associated Press/File Photo Portland’s four oldest bridges are over 100 years old and county engineers estimate seismic retrofits alone are ex- pected to cost at least $75 million. As it stands now, it would take three to five years to rebuild all the roads and find the will, commitment, and persistence needed to trans- form our state.” Aftermath forum At a Cascadia After- math forum last week at Blue Mountain Community Col- lege, speakers Franell, Uma- tilla County emergency man- ager Tom Roberts and college faculty member Philip Schmitz said it is critical the state con- tinue to plan and to invest in seismic upgrades. A $25 million retrofitting LISTINGS M ONDAY E VENING A (2) (-) (-) (6) (-) (8) (9) (10) (12) (13) (-) (20) (-) (29) (30) (31) (32) (34) (35) (36) (38) (39) (43) (44) (45) (46) (47) (48) (49) (50) (51) (52) (53) (54) (56) (57) (58) (61) (63) (64) (65) (162) L KATU KOMO KING KOIN KIRO KGW KRCW KOPB KPTV KPDX KCPQ TBS KZJO ESPN ESPN2 NICK DISN FAM FMC LIFE ROOT FS1 SPIKE COM HIST A&E TLC DISC NGEO TNT AMC USA FOOD HGTV FX CNN FNC CNBC BRAV TCM SYFY RFD (2) (4) (5) (-) (7) (-) (3) (10) (12) (-) (13) (20) (22) (29) (30) (31) (32) (34) (35) (36) (38) (39) (43) (44) (45) (46) (47) (48) (49) (50) (51) (52) (53) (54) (56) (57) (58) (61) (63) (64) (65) (162) 6 PM of the Pittock Building in Port- land, for example, could pre- vent the collapse of the 1913- era building through which all of the state’s internet flows. “This is going to potentially be one of the largest events in recorded history,” Roberts told the audience. “It might not happen in our lifetimes, but it is important for all of us today to know what to expect so we can pass that information on to the next generation, so they can pass it on to the next gen- eration, until it does happen.” Evening listings MONDAY F EBRUARY 27 A - Charter Astoria/ Seaside - L - Charter Long Beach 6:30 7 PM 7:30 8 PM 8:30 9 PM 9:30 10 PM 10:30 11 PM 11:30 KATU News at 6 Jeopardy! Wheel of Fortune The Bachelor (N) When We Rise Chronicles the LGBT Civil Rights movement. (P) Pt. 1 of 4 (N) KATU News at 11 (:35) Jimmy Kimmel KOMO 4 News Wheel of Fortune Jeopardy! The Bachelor (N) When We Rise Chronicles the LGBT Civil Rights movement. (P) Pt. 1 of 4 (N) KOMO 4 News (:35) Jimmy Kimmel NBC Nightly News KING 5 News KING 5 News Evening The Voice Contestants battle for a recording contract. (SP) (N) Taken "Pilot" (P) (N) KING 5 News (:35) Tonight Show KOIN Local 6 at 6 CBS Evening News Extra Ent. Tonight Big Bang Theory Man Plan (N) Superior Donuts 2 Broke Girls (N) Scorpion "Don't Burst My Bubble" (N) KOIN 6 News @ 11 (:35) S. Colbert KIRO 7 News CBS Evening News The Insider Ent. Tonight Big Bang Theory Man Plan (N) Superior Donuts 2 Broke Girls (N) Scorpion "Don't Burst My Bubble" (N) KIRO News (:35) S. Colbert KGW News at 6:00 p.m. Live at Seven Inside Edition The Voice Contestants battle for a recording contract. (SP) (N) Taken "Pilot" (P) (N) KGW News at 11 (:35) Tonight Show Last Man Standing Last Man Standing Modern Family Modern Family Supergirl "Homecoming" (N) JaneVirgin "Chapter Fifty-Seven" (N) KGW News at 10 Two and a Half Two and a Half Met Your Mother This Old House Business (N) PBS NewsHour Antique "Palm Springs (Hour Two)" (N) An Oregon Experience Africa's Great Civilizations "Origins/ The Cross and the Crescent" (N) 6 O'Clock News Family Feud Family Feud 24: Legacy "4:00 PM - 5:00 PM" (N) APB "Signal Loss" (N) 10 O'Clock News 11 O'Clock News 2 Broke Girls Mike & Molly Mike & Molly Big Bang Theory Big Bang Theory FOX 12's 8 O'Clock News on PDX-TV FOX 12's 9 O'Clock News on PDX-TV Family Guy Family Guy American Dad Cleveland Show Modern Family Modern Family Big Bang Theory Big Bang Theory 24: Legacy "4:00 PM - 5:00 PM" (N) APB "Signal Loss" (N) Q13 News at 10 Q13 News The Simpsons Family Guy Family Guy Family Guy Family Guy Family Guy Amer. 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Shadowhunters "Bound by Blood" (N) Beyond "Into the Light" (SF) (N) Shadowhunters "Bound by Blood" The 700 Club (4:40) The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (:55) The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (‘13) Kristen Wiig, Ben Stiller. (:10) Dragonball Evolution (‘09) Yun-Fat Chow, Emmy Rossum, Justin Chatwin. Dragonball Evolution Justin Chatwin. To Be Announced To Be Announced Little Women: Atlanta (5:00) NCAA Basketball TCU/Tex.Tech (L) Mariners Mondays "Any Which Way You Win" (N) UFC UFC 185 (5:00) NCAA Basketball Bay./Okl. (L) Fighter's Cut (N) UFC Flashback (N) Fox Sports Live TMZ Sports (N) Speak for Yourself Skip and Shannon: Undisputed Opinions on the biggest sports topics of the day. Cops Cops Cops Cops Cops Cops Cops Cops Cops Cops Cops Cops Futurama Futurama Futurama Futurama South Park South Park Archer Pt. 1 of 2 Archer Pt. 2 of 2 South Park South Park The Daily Show (N) @midnight (N) Amer. Pickers "The Empire Picks Back" A. Pickers "No Stoner Left Unturned" Amer. 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