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THE DAILY ASTORIAN • THURSDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2016
US life expectancy falls,
as kinds of death increase
WARRENTON KIA
By MIKE STOBBE
AP Medical Writer
NEW YORK — A decades-
long trend of rising life expec-
tancy in the U.S. could be end-
ing: It declined last year and it is
no better than it was four years
ago.
In most of the years since
World War II, life expectancy in
the U.S. has inched up, thanks
to medical advances, public
health campaigns and better
nutrition and education.
But last year it slipped, an
exceedingly rare event in a year
that did not include a major
disease outbreak. Other one-
year declines occurred in 1993,
when the nation was in the
throes of the AIDS epidemic,
and 1980, the result of an espe-
cially nasty flu season.
In 2015, rates for eight of
the 10 leading causes of death
rose. Even more troubling to
health experts: the U.S. seems
to be settling into a trend of no
improvement at all.
“With four years, you’re
starting to see some indication
of something a little more omi-
nous,” said S. Jay Olshansky, a
University of Illinois-Chicago
public health researcher.
Almost 79 years
An American born in 2015
is expected to live 78 years and
9½ months, on average, accord-
ing to preliminary data released
today by the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention. An
American born in 2014 could
expect to live about month
longer, and even an American
born in 2012 would have been
expected to live slightly longer.
In 1950, life expectancy was
just over 68 years.
The United States ranks
below dozens of other high-in-
come countries in life expec-
tancy, according to the World
Bank. It is highest in Japan, at
nearly 84 years.
The CDC report is based
mainly on 2015 death certif-
icates. There were more than
2.7 million deaths, or about
86,000 more than the previous
year. The increase in raw num-
bers partly reflects the nation’s
CAR
Katy Kildee/The Saginaw News
This Monday, Jan. 25, 2016 photo shows a room inside a
funeral home in Saginaw, Mich. According to a study by
the government released today, life expectancy in the Unit-
ed States has fallen for the first time in more than 20 years.
‘With four
years, you’re
starting to
see some
indication of
something
a little more
ominous.’
S. Jay Olshansky
a University of Illinois-Chicago
public health researcher
growing and aging population.
It was led by an unusual
upturn in the death rate from the
nation’s leading killer, heart dis-
ease. Death rates also increased
for chronic lower lung disease,
accidental injuries, stroke, Alz-
heimer’s disease, diabetes, kid-
ney disease and suicide.
The only clear drop was in
cancer, the nation’s No. 2 killer.
Obesity may factor in
Experts aren’t sure what’s
behind the stall. Some, like
Olshansky, suspect obesity, an
underlying factor in some of the
largest causes of death, particu-
larly heart disease.
But there’s also the impact
of rising drug overdoses and
suicides, he noted. “There are
a lot of things happening at the
same time,” he said.
Some years the CDC later
revises its life expectancy esti-
mate after doing additional
analysis, including for its 2014
estimate.
Average life expectancy
declined for men, falling by
more than two months, to 76
years and 3 ½ months in 2015.
It fell by about one month for
women, to 81 years and 2 ½
months, the CDC said.
Death rates increased for
black men, white men, white
women, and slightly for His-
panic men and women. But
they did not change for black
women.
The new CDC report did
not offer a geographic break-
down of 2015 deaths, or analy-
sis of death based on education
or income. But other research
has shown death rates are rising
sharply for poorer people —
particularly white people — in
rural areas but not wealthier and
more highly educated and peo-
ple on the coasts.
“The troubling trends are
most pronounced for the peo-
ple who are the most disad-
vantaged,” said Jennifer Karas
Montez, a Syracuse University
researcher who studies adult
death patterns.
“But if we don’t know why
life expectancy is decreas-
ing for some groups, we can’t
be confident that it won’t start
declining for others,” she said.
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