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THE DAILY ASTORIAN • WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2016
Analysis: Trump’s win a shock to the system
By KATHLEEN
HENNESSEY
Associated Press
WASHINGTON — A
shockwave.
There’s no other way to
describe the massive change
Americans voted for Tuesday.
In electing Donald Trump
to the White House, Americans
handed the reins to someone
whose campaign was premised
on an unrelenting challenge to
the status quo, distrust in gov-
ernment and dismissal of the
politicians from both parties.
They chose a man who prom-
ised to channel their anger, as
much as carry their hopes. He
didn’t merely promise change,
he promised disruption.
The ramifications of the
Trump presidency are difficult
to measure. In his ugly, knock-
down fight against Democrat
Hillary Clinton, his personal-
ity was a draw more than his
policies. The stump speeches
that drew thousands to rau-
cous rallies were laced with
proposals but powered by his
one word political philosophy:
“Winning.”
But it resonated in a way
few expected with white, work-
ing-class America, across the
Rust Belt and in rural commu-
nities, where the scars of the
Great Recession endure and
winning felt like a long-lost
concept. He understood their
anxiety about jobs moving
overseas and immigrants mov-
ing in. He claimed to hate the
liberal media as much as they
did. He sounded like no politi-
cian ever.
This was their uprising, the
elevation of a 70-year-old real-
ity-TV and real estate mogul
willing to speak their truth,
rewrite rules and insult anyone
along the way.
It is nothing short of whip-
lash — for Americans and peo-
ple around the world who were
alarmed by his harsh rhetoric
about longtime allies and other
cultures.
Trump’s victory comes
eight years after a coalition of
blacks, Hispanics, women and
young people elected the first
black president and ushered in
what many viewed as a new era
‘There’s
nothing like
it in our
lifetime.’
Douglas Brinkley
presidential historian
of progressive dominance in
presidential politics. Tuesday’s
results are a stunning, if confus-
ing, indictment of the policies of
President Barack Obama, who
nevertheless remains popular.
“There’s nothing like it in
our lifetime,” said presiden-
tial historian Douglas Brinkley,
who in the days leading up the
election dubbed a Trump win a
“social revolution” on par only
with Franklin Delano Roo-
sevelt’s clubbing of Herbert
Hoover for his handling of the
Great Depression in 1932.
To many policy experts,
economists, military brass,
diplomats — the establish-
ment, Trump would say —
Trump’s proposals are viewed
as improbable, impossible,
and at times unconstitutional.
Democrats and Republicans in
Washington recoiled from his
proposed ban on Muslims from
entering in the U.S. Few think
his vow to force Mexico to pay
for a wall along the border is
workable, at best. And really
only Trump knows if his prom-
ise to “bomb the s--t out out of”
the Islamic State group in Iraq
and Syria seen is anything more
than bluster.
There’s mixed evidence on
whether Trump’s victory is an
endorsement of such plans. Vot-
ers sent enough Republicans
back to the Senate to give the
GOP control of both chambers,
a clear government mandate.
But for all the talk about
immigration, exit polls showed
it was a low priority for most
voters. Just 1 in 10 voters said
immigration was the most
important issue facing the
country. More than half of vot-
ers opposed Trump’s plan for a
“big, beautiful wall.”
Clearly, what many voters
opposed was Clinton.
The former secretary of state
and veteran of two decades of
political battles proved to be
an exceedingly damaged can-
didate, distrusted both by her
supporters and opponents alike.
Her historic candidacy, to be
the first female president, failed
to rouse the enthusiasm or emo-
tion that drove Obama’s coali-
tion to the polls. Her discon-
nect with white, working-class
voters appears to have been her
downfall.
Even Obama’s dire warn-
ings — “the fate of the Repub-
lic rests on your shoulders” —
didn’t do the trick.
It wasn’t enough to scare
people about a President
Trump. Americans had fears
about Clinton, too. Her pen-
chant for secrecy was spun into
scandal with brutal impact. Her
use of a private email server
as secretary of state not only
dogged her for months —
but returned at precisely the
wrong moment in late Octo-
ber when FBI Director James
Comey notified Congress he
was reviewing new emails for
evidence that she or her han-
dlers mishandled classified
information.
Comey cleared Clinton
again Sunday, but in the nine
intervening days, as a cloud
of suspicion hovered over her,
nearly 24 million people cast
early ballots. That’s a sizeable
chunk of all the votes cast for
president.
Trump’s win made a mock-
ery of all the usual politi-
cal rules. He had virtually no
ground game, his advertis-
ing on television didn’t come
close to matching his rival’s.
He largely ignored the prac-
tice of voter targeting and ana-
lytics, elevated to religion after
Obama’s two victories. Clin-
ton’s campaign raised $513
million — roughly double what
Trump raised, including $66
million from his own pocket.
While pollsters and politi-
cal professionals in both parties
dismissed him, he declared he
had galvanized long-alienated
voters into a movement.
“The forgotten men and
women of our country will be
forgotten no longer,” Trump
declared.
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President-elect
Donald Trump
shakes hands
during an elec-
tion night rally
this morning in
New York.
AP Photo/Evan Vucci
What the heck
just happened?!
An Analysis of the 2016 Election
NOVEMBER 15
John Horvick
TO ATTEND:
John Horvick, Political Director
at DHM Research, will review
the 2016 election in Oregon
and nationally. He’ll share his
thoughts about what the
election outcomes say about
our state and country. Horvick
has conducted hundreds of
surveys and focus groups with
Oregonians across the state,
and he’ll discuss some of the
research fi ndings that help
explain why we voted the way
we did, including the values
and issues that were most
infl uential this election.
For Members: Dinner & Lecture:$25 each; Lecture only: no charge
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