5A
THE DAILY ASTORIAN • WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2016
THE ELECTION IMPACT
How consumers are reacting in anxious times
By ANNE
D’INNOCENZIO
AP Retail Writer
NEW YORK — Ameri-
cans have been anxious about
the contentious presiden-
tial election, and when they
get fretful, they tend to stop
shopping.
While government reports
show overall spending has
held up, some analysts say
they’re seeing signs that shop-
pers are being cautious. A dip
is normal before an election,
but the question this year is
whether the uncertainty could
drag on after election day and
cut into holiday buying.
Retailers are hoping an
improving job market and
wage gains will get Ameri-
cans in the mood to spend.
“There’s going to be elec-
tion noise,” Target’s CEO
Brian Cornell has said.
“We’ve all looked at it and
talked about it. But we are
entering a holiday season
with a consumer who is feel-
ing good about the state of
play.”
Here’s a look at where
things stand and what could
be ahead after Nov. 8:
Q. What usually hap-
pens before a presidential
election?
A. Shoppers traditionally
pull back ahead of the election
as they become distracted.
“Everywhere you turn —
whether you’re picking up a
newspaper or watching tele-
vision — political advertise-
ments are taking up ad space
that retailers typically use to
get holiday shopping on the
minds of consumers across
the country,” said Matthew
Shay, president and CEO of
the National Retail Federa-
tion, the nation’s largest retail
trade group.
But
buying
usually
bounces back afterward. In
the 2012 and 2004 presiden-
tial elections, year-over-year
sales growth slowed an aver-
age of 22 percent in Septem-
ber and October, from the Jan-
uary through August period,
but rebounded an average
of 16 percent in November
and December, according to
AlixPartners. The consult-
ing group excluded the 2008
presidential election because
the ballooning financial crisis
that led to a precipitous drop
in spending made it an outlier.
Its figures exclude sales of
cars and auto parts and from
gas stations and restaurants
and are based on an analy-
sis of Commerce Department
figures.
Q. What about 2000,
when the Al Gore- George
W. Bush race wasn’t decided
until Dec. 12?
A. Sales didn’t recover
as usual because of unprece-
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AP Photo/Matt Rourke
A sign advertising a sale is seen posted on a storefront
in Philadelphia. It’s no secret that Americans have been a
bit anxious about the contentious president election be-
tween Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. But while broad-
er government reports say spending is still intact, there’s
been a slowdown. And a cloud of uncertainty could carry
over to after the Election Day that could hurt spending.
dented uncertainty about the
winner through most of the
holiday season, says Noam
Paransky, director of the retail
practice at AlixPartners.
Year-over-year
sales
growth slowed 10.2 percent
in September and October of
that year, from the January
through August period. And
for November and December,
it was 30.4 percent slower
growth. However, retail sales
were still growing through the
period.
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forward. This year may be
different. Republican Donald
Trump, who has railed about a
“rigged” political system, said
in the final presidential debate
that he won’t decide until the
election ends whether he will
accept its results. If Democrat
Hillary Clinton wins, she may
take office amid questions
now that the FBI is looking
further at her emails.
“The potential concerns of
legitimacy of either candidate
can carry over and dampen
spending,” said Perkins.
Q. Given the preva-
lence of political ads in
some areas, what are stores
doing?
A. Both Wal-Mart and Tar-
get say they’ve adjusted their
advertising.
Wal-Mart hasn’t given
many specifics, while Target
says it’s leaning more toward
TV channels like the Food
Network, HGTV and the
Cinema channel. For social
media, it’s focusing on Pin-
terest. The company says it
wants to be smart about where
to focus.
“We don’t want to come
across as tone-deaf to the
conversations that are going
on,” said Rick Gomez, Tar-
get’s senior vice president of
marketing.
Consult
a
W A NTED
*
Q. What’s been the trend
this year?
A. Consumer confidence
has slipped a bit, but spend-
ing generally held up through
September as income gains
and an improving job market
offset some of the uncertainty,
according to the most current
government reports.
Year-over-year growth in
retail sales slowed 19.8 per-
cent in September compared
with the year so far, accord-
ing to an analysis by Alix-
Partners. The government
hasn’t released sales yet for
October. But a report from
the Conference Board said
consumer confidence pulled
back in October, after reach-
ing a 20-month high in Sep-
tember. That dip was in line
with the University of Mich-
igan survey.
A survey by the National
Retail Federation points to
cautious consumers because
of the election uncertainty.
Some shoppers surveyed by
the research group The Retail
Economist and Goldman
Sachs showed the election
was a factor.
And shoppers remain
selective, shifting their spend-
ing more toward items like
cars and appliances, says Ken
Perkins, president of research
firm Retail Metrics LLC.
A clearer picture will
emerge when retailers report
their third-quarter results in
November. “The election is
weighing on consumer psy-
che, and retailers will use it as
an excuse,” Perkins said.
Q. Will there be a
post-election bounce this
year?
A. With the rare excep-
tion of the Bush-Gore con-
test, most elections bring cer-
tainty and the country moved
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Q: What’s the “donut
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The donut hole is a
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BEHAVIORAL
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