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THE DAILY ASTORIAN • MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2015
NOISE OR TRUTH?
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future with natural variances
This is the second of two
stories looking at how scien-
tists are interpreting strange
weather, ocean conditions and
animal sightings in 2014, and
what it all could mean for salm-
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By KATIE WILSON
EO Media Group
There’s the regular kind of
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on the Columbia River bellow-
ing in the fog.
Then there is “noise” in a sci-
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This year was one of the
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in Oregon and Washington:
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of Fish and Wildlife in August.
“The sheer numbers are just so
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But it wasn’t such a great
year for crab. The crab that were
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“It’s the cyclical nature of
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they were right.
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unusual. Neither was the mass
of warm water moving off the
West Coast — the Blob — that
brought many strange marine
animals to colder waters here.
Researchers call these things
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terns.
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dict the effects of climate change
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from the rising clamor of climate
change.
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right now we’re still subject to all
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Washington state climatologist.
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of the ocean is changing too. The
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are going to chain. … We’d like
to know when we’re getting into
uncharted territories.”
Slippery studies
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thousands of researchers have
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every year something changes: a
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are examined and re-examined.
WDFW has slowly been in-
tegrating climate change models
and information into how the
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climate change coordinator with
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is considering changes in how it
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sues) isn’t going to make them
go away.”
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surveys conducted by NOAA
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sky is looking to this vast trea-
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tabase launched in collaboration
with NOAA that looks at how
SPORTS SCOREBOARD
PREP SCHEDULE
SWIMMING
TUESDAY
Girls Basketball — Seaside at
Astoria, 5:30 p.m.
Boys Basketball — Seaside at
Astoria, 7:15 p.m.
HIGH SCHOOLS
District 1/4A Meet
at Astoria Aquatic Center
Girls Team: Valley Catholic
252, Tillamook 229, Newport
216, Scappoose 134, Astoria
130, Seaside 111, Taft 86, Raini-
er 55, Banks 11.
200 Medley Relay: 1, Valley
Catholic, 2:02.59. 2, Astoria,
2:10.06. 3, Tillamook, 2:14.18.
200 Freestyle: 1, Sarah
Krueger, VC, 1:57.29. 2, Clara
Cannon, VC, 2:06.07. 3, Allison
Bachart, New, 2:08.46.
200 Indivdual Medley: 1,
Kathleen Shew, VC, 2:31.0.
2, Shannon Blackburn, New,
2:32.99. 3, Gabie Kreuger, Scp,
2:36.74.
50 Freestyle: 1, Hailey Mo-
raes, VC, 25.89. 2, Clarisse Cov-
entry, Sea, 26.63. 3, Alexa Ryer,
New, 27.86.
100 Butterfly: 1, Sarah
Krueger, VC, 1:00.55. 2, Alyssa
Harkins, Sea, 1:07.15. 3, Ashley
Schacher, Ast, 1:10.84.
100 Freestyle: 1, Kara Putman,
Til, 56.91. 2, Hailey Moraes, VC,
58.77. 3, Allison Bachart, New,
58.92.
500 Freestyle: 1, Kathleen
Shew, VC, 5:49.21. 2, Elena El-
lingson-Cosenza, New, 5:49.75.
3, Sabrina Polman, Til, 6:35.78.
200 Freeestyle Relay: 1, Valley
Catholic, 1:48.27. 2, Tillamook,
1:49.77. 3, Newport, 1:52.58.
100 Backstroke: 1, Megan
Sparks, Ast, 1:07.44. 2, Emily
Reibach, Til, 1:07.59. 3, Lizeth
Cortes, Taft, 1:10.43.
100 Breaststroke: 1, Kara
Putman, Til, 1:11.76. 2, Stefany
Alvarez, Scp, 1:19.27. 3, Shelby
Kunert, Til, 1:19.39.
400 Freestyle Relay: 1, Til-
lamook, 4:06.80. 2, Newport,
4:10.94. 3, Valley Catholic,
4:13.57.
BASKETBALL
HIGH SCHOOLS
Boys
Scappoose 54, Astoria 41
SCP (54): Jacob Wendelschafer
14, McNabb 13, C.Johnson 10,
Marcantonio 8, Ford 6, Lohman 3.
AST (41): Fridtjof Fremstad
10, Strange 9, Palek 8, Jarrett 8,
Fruiht 6, Scroup, Johnson, Keat-
ing, Olson, Williams, C.Englund,
Loughran, Arnsdorf.
Scappoose 14 11 9 20—54
Astoria
10 11 12 8—41
Seaside 48, Valley Catholic 33
VC (33): Kazuma Lane 13,
Krishnakumar 6, Haggerty 4, Os-
swald 3, Parthasarathy 3, Jones
2, Menkens 2.
SEA (48): Jackson Januik 18,
Eagon 11, Marston 8, Smith 4,
Babb 3, Thompson 2, Lewis 2.
Valley Catholic 9 7 7 10—33
Seaside
11 9 16 12—48
TIFFANY BOOTH photo
Sea turtles like this one have washed ashore near the mouth of the Columbia River this
winter, one of many indications that ocean conditions are unusual. Scientists are trying
to separate normal variability in the environment — sometimes called “noise” — from
potentially serious long-term trends.
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both sides of the country are go-
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usual.
The website was only just
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understand it in a variety of con-
texts.
“We’re seeing changes and
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it’s nothing like we’ll see down
the road. … If global warm-
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more dramatic changes and
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Economics of change
It’s inside that “if” about the
rate of change where economics
crashes into climate change. In-
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the West Coast states have allo-
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accurate and relevant for certain
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A future with climate change
looks like a future where tra-
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elsewhere.
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have negotiations between
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with how we are going to share
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resource controlled by one coun-
try.”
“Considerations of long-term
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management in North Ameri-
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Fisheries Management.”
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said in a recent interview. “We
understand the biology not all
that well. We understand the
social and economic side even
less.”
The costs of change
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costs of climate change have
been estimated several times
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economists tried to bring that
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Washington.
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ington of a Business-as-Usual
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the economists concluded that
since Washington will likely be
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and lower river and stream levels
in the coming years as a result of
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There will likely be increased
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increase of about $28 million by
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growing job market for green en-
ergy innovations.
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Take the rate of sea level rise.
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Washington Gov. Jay Inslee
called for a carbon emissions
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carbon emissions — among the
greenhouse gases considered the
leading cause of global warming.
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traded or sold to other business.
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wouldn’t do enough to deal with
climate change in myriad small-
er ways.
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oversees water issues on the
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“We’re seeing a lot of move-
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he said. It’s a banding together
that he attributes to the threat of
climate change.
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about ways to reduce greenhouse
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cluded that such actions should
not be undertaken because their
costs are too great.”
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be of not taking these actions and
allowing climate change to con-
tinue unabated.”
Mapping the borders
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of risk.
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of years have wrestled with the
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They determined that markets
can handle risk. That’s just what
markets do.
“They thought they had con-
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that work in the market generally
don’t work when you’re talking
about something that threatens
civilization.”
Climate change is certainly
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zation dies ... how do we think
about that and make decisions in
the context of that risk?”
With each study and each
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makers may not be able to an-
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“I think at the moment I
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building blocks to do what we
need to do. It’s just a matter of
using them and the time is now.
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I’m starting to see interest out
there.”
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ing room. What on earth do you
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“Maybe looking at some
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S EASIDE
WWW . SUZANNE - ELISE . COM
Knappa 88, Neah-Kah-Nie 38
KNA (88): Tyson Burnard 23,
Takalo 22, Weirup 18, Severson 8,
J.Miller 6, Goodman 5, Dragoo 3,
Parks 2, Rubus 1.
NKN (38): Garit Champ 16, May
12, Holm 6, Croman 3, Hasenoeh-
rl 1.
Knappa
28 27 24 9—88
Neah-Kah-Nie 12 10 13 3—38
Falls City 44, Jewell 29
FC (44): Tristan Yeager 15,
T.Simmons 11, R.Kempfer 8,
N.Kempfer 2, Labrado 2, Larain 2.
JWL (29): Victor Berg 9, Stahly
8, Ritchie 4, Meehan 4, Murray 2,
Silva 2.
Falls City
9 11 14 10—44
Jewell
4 9 4 12—29
Girls
Scappoose 46, Astoria 41
SCP (46): Alyssa Spang 16,
Tinning 13, B.Sykes 6, Kopra 5,
Brodala 4, Bailey 2.
AST (41): Chloee Hunt 14, De-
Mander 8, DiBartolomeo 6, Wal-
lace 6, Mitchell 5, Abrahams 2,
Dalton.
Scappoose 12 10 9 15—46
Astoria
13 6 12 10—41
Valley Catholic 69, Seaside 56
SEA (56): Maddi Utti 16, Dun-
das 11, Westerholm 11, Villegas 8,
P.Ideue 6, Bussert 2, West 2.
V.Catholic
14 18 13 24—69
Seaside
16 18 11 11—56
Neah-Kah-Nie 43, Knappa 41
KNA (41): Chloe Little 13, Cam-
eron 8, Wright 8, Rogers 5, Aho 4,
Jones 3, Vanderburg, Vandergriff,
Landwehr.
NKN (43): Brittany Scull 13,
Holm 10, Romig 9, Swanson 4,
Clifford 2, Kelly 2, Lambert 1.
Knappa 2 9 13 7 7 3—41
NKN
7
8 8 8 7 5—43
Falls City 28, Jewell 27
FC (28): Vanney 18, Coker 4,
Kidd 3, Pdear 2, Ziolo 1.
JWL (27): Alyscia Littlepage 8,
Rachel Stahly 8, Morales 5, Thur-
ston 3, Guillen 2, H.Littlepage 1,
Haddock.
Adna 55, Ilwaco 43
ADNA (55): Rolfe 22, Dotson 12,
Elliott 10, Gaffney 6, Gilbertson 3,
Callahan 2.
ILW (43): Makenzie Kaech 23,
Coffin 13, Lindstrom 3, Ellsworth
2, McMillan 2, Tapio, Jacobson.
Adna
12 14 13 16—55
Ilwaco
8 9 10 16—43
Lake Quinault 47, Naselle 42
LQ (47): Romey Begay 21,
S.Thomas 10, E.Silva 7, B.Thom-
as 6, Blackburn 3.
NAS (42): Ellie Chapman 20,
Leeland 8, T.Eaton 6, Ford 6, Ja-
cot 2, A.Eaton, Footh, Ridgeway.
Lake Quinault 14 5 15 13—47
Naselle
9 17 9 7—42
Boys Team: Newport 304,
Seaside 218, Valley Catholic
156, Rainier 128, Tillamook 124,
Astoria 97, Taft 93, Scappoose
92, Banks 11.
200 Medley Relay: 1, Sea-
side, 1:48.43. 2, Valley Catholic,
1:51.75. 3, Newport, 1:54.27.
200 Freestyle: 1, David Spur-
geon, VC, 1:54.01. 2, Brad Rze-
wnicki, Sea, 2:00.36. 3, Chan-
dler Arnsdorf, New, 2:04.68.
200 Indivdual Medley: 1, Ben
Settle, VC, 2:04.19. 2, Raul Car-
rasco, New, 2:05.25. 3, Arath
Hernandez, New, 2:23.44.
50 Freestyle: 1, Ryland Pam-
push, Til, 24.03. 2, Sam Beau-
doin, Sea, 24.15. 3, Dylan
Townsend, Sea, 24.36.
100 Butterfly: 1, David Spur-
geon, VC, 56.92. 2, Austin
Thompson, New, 57.93. 3, Justin
Delfin, Taft, 1:01.21.
100 Freestyle: 1, Ryland Pam-
push, Til, 53.21. 2, Leland Wood,
New, 54.15. 3, Sam Beaudoin,
Sea, 54.98.
500 Freestyle: 1, Bryce Nurd-
ing, Ast, 5:36.58. 2, Chance Set-
tlemire, New, 5:41.87. 3, Ronan
Krutzikowsky, New, 5:53.27.
200 Freeestyle Relay: 1,
Newport, 1:36.99. 2, Seaside,
1:37.90. 3, Tillamook, 1:40.85.
100 Backstroke: 1, Ben Set-
tle, VC, 55.22. 2, Raul Carrasco,
New, 57.37. 3, Nik Grittith, Rai,
1:01.87.
100 Breaststroke: 1, Aus-
tin Thompson, New, 1:06.19.
2, Chandler Arnsdorf, New,
1:07.22. 3, Brad Rzewnicki, Sea,
1:11.45.
400 Freestyle Relay: 1, New-
port, 3:35.57. 2, Seaside, 3:42.41.
3, Valley Catholic, 3:44.28.
WRESTLING
HIGH SCHOOLS
District 1/4A
at Tillamook
Team: Crook County 507.5,
Scappoose 235.5, Tillamook
205, Banks 183.5, Gladstone
108.5, Estacada 88, Madras 78,
Molalla 59.5, Corbett 57, Astoria
32, Seaside 5.
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