Thursday February 12,1981
Page 2 — Vernonia Freedom
EDITORIAL
Future looking brighter for depressed Oregon timber industry
After a year of high interest rates
that stalled new home construction
and forced the curtailment or closure
of Oregon lumber and plywood mills
economists for the forest industry say
they see the light at the end of the
tunnel. It’s still some distance off,
but it’s coming.
The sequence of events that forced
national home construction starts
from a high in 1979 of 1.7 million
units to a low in 1980 of 1.3 million,
units is probably familiar to most
people. It started with the Federal
Reserve Board actions to restrict the
flow of money in this country in an
effort to slow inflation. They did this
by raising interest rates, making it
more costly to borrow money.
Interest rates on home 'mortgage
loans took a corresponding jump. In
1979 a conventional home loan could
be obtained at a little over 9 percent
interest. In 1980 the home loan
interest jumped to over 14 percent.
This forced many perspective home
buyers out of the market. By
comparing national housing starts
between the two years we can say at
least 400,0001 perspective buyers
changed their minds about buying at
the higher interest rates.
With such a drastic reduction in the
number of homes being built, the
demand for lumber, plywood and
other building products plummeted.
Without a market for their products,
mill managers in Oregon were forced
to slow production by cvfrtailing the
number of hours the mill operated or
completely
closing
tjje
mill.
Companies could not afford to pay
wages and overhead without money
coming in from the sale of products.
That scenario has put mill workers
out of work and on unemployment
insurance. It has reduced income to
other businesses in the community
like restaurants, theaters, retail
PUBLIC FORUM
outlets and so on. It has reduced the
amount of income flowing to state
government and played a role in the
state’s budget deficit in 1980. And it
kept families all over the country
from obtaining that American dream,
a home of their own.
But industry economists say the
end is in sight. They expect the first
six months of 1981 to continue to
drag along at the present rate. But i„n
the second half of this year they see
housing starts increasing again. And
that means increased orders for
Oregon lumber and plywood.
According to Bob Herbst, vice
president for marketing for Western
Wood Products Association, “We’re
headed in the right direction.
One of the reasons housing starts
must pick up in 1981 and beyond is
because of the “pressure cooker’’ of
demand that has been created for
housing. Herbst explains that there
are roughly 2 million families that
will need housing in each year of the
1980s. In 1980 over 700,000 of those
eople wanting housing could Jiot
Seniors need paper
The Vernonia Senior Center needs
your recyclable newspapers. Call
429-3912 for pick up.
VHS B ball game
rescheduled
The Vernonia boys basketball game
scheduled for 8 pm Saturday,
February 14, has been changed. The
JV team will play at 1 pm and the
varsity will play at 3 pm.
The change was made to help meet
the needs of both schools. The early
game will allow the juniors to
decorate the gym for the Valentine’s
dance that evening. It will begin at 8
pm and end at 11 pm.
We apologize for the inconvenience
this change may cause our patrons.
R. Randall Aultman
Principal
Vernonia High School
fulfill their dream. Those people must
be added to the 2 million who need
housing in 1981. The pressure cooker
keeps building and that demand must
be answered.
But these future home buyers will
have to realize that they are
purchasing housing and housing
PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
Effective Feb. 1, 1981 personal
charge accounts will no longer be.
accepted at Brunsman’s True Value
hardware store.
The Management
alone. No longer will it be a financial
investment as well. Herbst explains
that what happened in 1980 had
nothing to do with the basic
economics of supply and demand.
It was caused by government
efforts to deal with an overheated
inflationary economy. This same
thing occurred in 1974-75,1970,1966-
67 and other downturns in the past.
In fact it has happened seven times
since World Warr II. But this time
Herbst says it has been allowed to go
so far that there is no returning to the
world we knew. We have seen, in
1980, the end of an era.
Herbst believes the days of buying
a home with a low down payment and
low interest rate are gone. He says
new financing schemes will allow
families to obtain that dream home,
but without the great financial
leverage that home buying included
in the past.
One new financing method would
have the buyer share the gains made
in appreciating home values with the
institution providing the loan. The
home buyer would be given a lower
interest rate but give up part of the
appreciation.
A graduated payment schedule
might help the young couple trying to
buy a home. The rates would be low in
the first years, then as the family
income increases the payments would
increase as well. There are variable
interest rates where the rate is
reviewed and adjusted at intervals,
ground leases, joint ownerships and
other new purchase schemes.
New loan agreements and a
“pressure cooker’’ of demand for
housing make Herbst believe that
1981 wjll see 1.6 million new housing
starts. That would be a fair year for
the forest industry. And he expects
1982 to be even better. With records
set for housing starts in later years.
continued on page 7
Fishhawk Lake annexation hearings set
Notice is hereby given that the
Board of County Commissioners,
under the provisions of ORS 198.850
intends to hold a public hearing on
the 25th day of February, 1981 at the
hour of 2 pm in the Columbia County
Extension meeting room, main floor,
Columbia County Courthouse, St.
Helens, Oregon regarding Order No.
4-81, declaring its intent to proceed
with, the annexation to the district of
Fishhawk
Lake
Estates-Mist-
Birkenfeld RFPD Annexation. The
new boundaries as proposed by the
district are to include Division 1 of
Fishhawk Lake Estates which lies
within Clatsop County, described as:
T6N,R6W, Sections 1, 2, 11, 12, 13,
14, 23, 24, 25, 27. The area is shown
on the vicinity map below; the area
proposed to be included is that area
contained within the heavy black line:
At this hearing, public testimony will
be received concerning the proposed
annexation;
-Robert M. Hunt
Chairman,
Board of County Commissioners
Zone change
hearing scheduled
The Vernonia City Council will hold
a Public Hearing on Monday,
February 16, 1981 in the City Library
on the request by C.E. Miller for a
zone change to extend the commercial
zone in the city from River Street
north to Nehalem Street and from the
alley between First and Second
Avenues east to California Street;
from Alder Street in Riverview north
to 100 feet on the north side of Knott
Street.
Don Dunaway
City Recorder
Publish February 12,1981
Vernonia Freedom
Published weekly in Vernonia Oregon, 97064, on Thursdays at 825 Bridge St.
Serving The Upper Nehalem Valley. Phone 429-8111. Subscriptions, $8 per year.
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^rntmi^ORMf^
Dennis Dobson....
Ann Dobson..........
Correspondents:
Ruth Nogle
Sandy Welch
Randy Stevens
at Yemonia' OR 97064’ Plication No. 474490.
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