HOT AIR SOCIETY
BY TON Y CORCOR A N
Unintended Consequences
AN UPDATE ON THE PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM
T
his is the week everyone anticipates in
Salem every two years. The May 2017
state revenue forecast is the last tool
available to the Legislature’s Ways and
Means co-chairs to anticipate Oregon’s
general fund problem for the next two years. The bi-
ennial crapshoot from hell. This year our economy’s
going gangbusters. So the kicker may kick! With a
$1.6 billion hole in our general fund! I hate it when
that happens.
Sen. Floyd Prozanski showed up at our Hot Air
Society last week so somber we had to do an emer-
gency IPA infusion. Just think about it — a quiet
lawyer who can’t say anything hopeful about the
current legislative clown show. We thought maybe
he had feline rabies but his vet says he’s up to date
on his shots. We’re keeping an eye on him.
I called some Salem lobbyists to see what was
going on. It turns out Floyd is not the only afflicted
legislator. There’s a rare herd auto-immune epidemic
at the state Capitol: All the legislators in Salem are
sick of one another! And they can’t talk! Mute and
moot. The revenue crisis, Public Employees Retire-
ment System (PERS) reform, and the transportation
package have one thing in common: They don’t have
36 votes in the House or 18 in the Senate. Nobody
knows the words to “Kumbaya.”
Remember Measure 97? Remember carbon emis-
sions and no transportation plan in 2015? Remem-
ber every stinkin’ excuse Republicans had to reject
revenue reform? There were many progressives
who thought Measure 97 was an Oregon MOAB,
or MOAT — Mother Of All Taxes. It represented
Oregon’s largest tax increase in history. Many of us
feared it would go down, and if it did any talk of sig-
nificant tax reform was out the window for a while.
And there’s no question that national politics
also play a role in Oregon’s electile dysfunction. Or-
egon’s Trumpistani Republicans are emboldened by
Trumpcare and Ryancare. I’m calling it Waldencare.
Waldencare represents the largest tax give-away to
the wealthy in our nation’s history! And it does it
by stripping away medical coverage to 24 million
Americans. How friggin’ clever is that? More taxes?
Hah!
I asked two veteran lobbyists on opposite sides to
compare the 2017 PERS negotiations to our reforms
in 2003. Both described this session as hopelessly
deadlocked.
The labor lobbyist told me there is no “moder-
ate” business lobby these days. The Association of
Oregon Industries, the Oregon Business Council, all
merged; and their members still seek revenge on the
public sector unions for Measure 97.
The business lobby told me that the PERS ben-
efit is too “luxurious”; the gap between Tier One
and Tier Two recipients is too broad. They believe
firefighters, cops and teachers should “share” the so-
lution to the unfunded liability dilemma, attacking
their paychecks by “equalizing benefits” between
the two tiers.
Salem’s partisanship is rampant, just as in Wash-
ington, DC. Neither side can agree on basic facts.
Republican leaders Sen. Ted Ferrioli and Rep. Mike
McLane, whom Trump is considering for U.S. Attor-
ney, haven’t given a glimmer of hope regarding new
revenue. And Democrats can’t do it alone.
Republicans are just coming to the realization
that poor investment returns, not over-compensated
public employees, are a large part of the PERS un-
funded liability conundrum. It’s a conundrum be-
cause “cost-containment” is the bi-partisan mantra,
but the fact is that 70 percent of the unfunded lia-
bility is caused by people who have already retired.
Without additional revenue we’re stuck.
The Republican business lobby payback for
Measure 97 is the main reason we can’t get addition-
al revenue through the legislature. And voters won’t
turn out for a special election to increase taxes. Duh!
Republicans are realizing they can’t reduce the
entire $22 billion unfunded 20-year liability all at
once. One 2015 Oregon Supreme Court decision
alone, Moro v. State of Oregon, increased that liabil-
ity by over $5 billion dollars by overturning a com-
ponent of the “grand bargain” ending the
2013 legislative session.
The good news
is that Gov. Kate
Brown gets the
fact that a trans-
portation pack-
age, a revenue
package and PERS
reform are in her best
interests politically go-
ing into the 2018 elec-
tion. The bad news is
the Republicans think
they can stall this shit
out until 2018 and have
Dennis Richardson as
secretary of state and
Knute Buehler as gov-
ernor. If Republicans
win next year, they
control Oregon redis-
tricting in 2020. See
how gerrymandering
works? Stay tuned.
Former state Sen. Tony Corco-
ran of Cottage Grove is a re-
tired state employee.
DON’T LET THE SUN SET
ON YOUR SUMMER!
uosummer.uoregon.edu
Registration is now open and continues until the first day of a class.
facebook.com/uosummer
Indulge in learning something new this summer through your local university.
541-346-3475
UO SUMMER SESSION | JUNE 26–SEPTEMBER 15, 2017
EO/AA/ADA institution committed to cultural diversity. © 2017 University of Oregon
4
May 18, 2017 • eugeneweekly.com