Port Orford news., December 29, 1966, Page 2, Image 2

2— Port O ford New*. Thursday, December 29, 1966
Babson’s Business and Financial Forecast for 1967
By ROGER W. BA PS ON
Poe« O ffice Box S
97465
pOrf Orford. Oregon
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N IW S P A P IR
P U S L IS H IR S
A S S O C IA T IO N
Only one more weekend to
go and the annual Holiday strain
w ill be over.. . except for try­
ing to get the overburdened bud­
get back in balance. A job that
usually takes the balance of the
year to even get close to. Pm
really always glad to see the
Yule season arrive, tho, just as
Pm glad to get it over with, be­
cause it's such a revelation to
ste the almost com plete char­
acter change of the youngsters.
Kids who normally fight with
each other day in and day out
actually cut down the alterca­
tions to about every other day
. . . or at least change the brawls
from fighting over who's suppos­
ed to wash dishes to fighting over
who gets the toy catalog first.
And did you ever notice that a
good many youngsters cut down
on the fighting and increase
their fibbing? If you h a v en 't...
just re-read t h o s e letters to
Santa. According to some letters
you'd think the parents had it
m ighty easy and the kids did all
the work at h om e.. . and were
always nice to teachers, brothers
and sisters and parents.. . almost
in that order.
Our kids this year, about a
week before the big day, voted
to w ait until Christmas morning
to open their gifts. Then about
Wecfaesday they dec ided Chr ist-
mas Eve would be better. By
Friday morning they wanted to
open "just one" gift that night.
WE almost did,too, but the bride
stepped in and made US w ait
until the Eve. (There's one in
every fam ily. ,
I'm probably one of the few
aim ost-m iddle-aged f a t h e r s
that can brag about getting a
train under the tree this year.
This wasn't the "play type, "
tho, but a package wrapped to
look like one. I m ean it was
com plete with large plywood
w heels thatrolled, a tin g -a -lin g
j V i a v th is N e w
Year be the bright­
e st o f t h e m a ll.
G o o d lu c k .
Well's Station
bell, head and tail lights and an
engineer. A real dooty of a wrap­
ping job by, I understand, several
people whom I call good frienda
. . . and t h e bride, too, until I
opened it.
Always one to make a sur­
prise a surprise, the bride en­
trusted her gift to me, to brother
Jim for a special wrapping job
. . .one of his secretta len n W ell,
so it seems, while he was work­
ing on the wrapping job, mutual
friends «hopped in and saw him
w i t h the project.. . which, of
c o u r s e , prompted suggestions
and help from them in various
degrees. They com pleted the
package and about 8:30 Friday
night, while we were in the din­
ingroom, the front door opened
and we heard this clanging bell
advancing a c r o s s the living
room.Needless to say, we heap­
ed multitudes of com plim ents
upon their he ads for the terrific
job of w rapping.. . so good, in
fact, that the kids were up early
Saturday morning and tried rid­
ing it.
TWf r w / v
W ell.. . cam e Christmas Eve
and the opening of gifts.Natural-
ly, I waited until last to open
the train .. . maybe because I
wasn't too sure of it, knowing
the people involved in creating
the gem. When I pulled off the
engine cab, I was more unsure
than ev e r.. . it held an eight-
pack of Olympia and nothing
else. I tackled the engine body
next. Farcing an opening in the
center. I eased m y hand inside
and felt something smooth and
cold and soft and long. I pried a
little more and it began to take
shape.. . looking of all things
j u s t like a leather case far a
bass guitar. I eased it from the
box not daring to believe what
should be in sid e.. . then I n otic­
ed the neck end of the case flop
down and figured I had just re­
ceived a bass case. At the same
tim e, the bride was thinking to
herself that "tho«e crazy fools
done broke the neck!" Me, not
k n o w in g anything different,
calm ly proceeded to unzip the
c a s e .. . where I found two large
cans of unsweetened grapefruit
juice and a generous quantity of
old newspapers. I guess you know
by this tim e the bride was ner­
vous a whole bunch. . . just be­
cause her little trick back-fired
a whole bunch.
But.. . after a long distance
phone c a l l.. . she finally found
the gift, wrapped in burlap and
still in one piece.
School district budget m eet­
ings start in February and con­
tracts will be reviewed; starring
in January for the superinten­
dent, principals in February and
teachers in M arch.. . in case
you're interested.
See the city is to lose another
policem an. Maybe with a few
more of them com ing and going
somebody w ill som etim e take a
look into the situation and com e
up with a solution to the prob­
lem . . . and it is a problem.
O hw ell,thii is the last Scratch
Pad.. . for 1 9 6 6 ... so m ay I wish
you all a very Happy and Pros­
perous New Year.
harder line against Germany
•ra tio n In the economy Is the
24. Labor stands at th e
in 1967 than In some tim e. I
likelihood that business capital
crossroads as Ihe new year
The close of 1966 marks the
feel that we should p articu larly
expenditures may ease. Tight opens. Things never looked bel­
seventieth consecutive month
watch General de Gaulle, who
cred it, suspension of accelera­
ter for nailing down record
In the life span of the longest
Is playing closer and closer
ted depreciation guidelines, and wage and fringe gains; however,
business boom of all tim e for
to Moscow from month to
wepenalon of the tax credit
neither ihe public nor Ihe Con­
the American economy. How­
month.
on business capital outlays w ill
gress Is In any mood to tolerate
ever, "tre es do not grow to the
6. Heavtly armed with Soviet
be tough obstacles lo surmount.
long, costly, and Inconvenient
sky.” Already, sign« of deter­
weapons, the Arabs of the Mid­
18. Except In defense Indus­
shutdowns. I freely predict that
ioration In the expansive vigor
dle Fast— squared off against
trie s , I look for an abrupt switch
there Is more Ilk llhoodtn 1967
that characterized the e a rlie r
Is re a l— present a grave threat
during 1967 from a business
of restrictive labor legisla­
phase of the business upsweep
to world peace. Nevertheless,
policy of Inventory accumula­
tion than al any tim e since T a ft-
have been Increasing in 1966.
I do not believe that Russia
tion to one of Inventory liq u i­
Hartley was put on the hooka.
Hence, the outlook for business
o r the United States can af­
dation.
Union chiefs are aware of thia,
and finance In 1967 la of great-
ford a direct confrontation at
16. I forecast that scarcity
and they thay act with more
er-than-usual Importance.
this time; hence my forecast
of credit w ill continue to be a strike
restraint
than most
Lest readers of this column
that the smoldering conflagra­
problem with which business
people now expect.
be tempted to "push the panic
tion there w ill not erupt Into
must contend In the early part
25. 1967 promises to be a
button,” however, let me state
W orld W ar in .
of 1967. The money managera
year In which many manage­
that It would be unwise to expect
7. While all r e a s o n a b l e
should keep enough credit avail­
ments w ill be righting a " r e a r ­
a m ajor depression In 1967.
people are hoping for a genuine
able for leglUmate business
guard” action to control clim b­
Ckir greatly expanded economy
peace In Vietnam , I predict that
needs, but I expect no e a r l y
ing labor costa. The defense
still has a considerable degree
the Issue w ill not be resolved
radical easing of credit.
buildup w ill maintain hiring
of momentum. The spotlight on
In 1967. Though the tide of bat­
17. However, I do foresee pressure In some Industries;
1967, therefore, should focus
tle Is swinging in our favor,
enough of an easing In credit
but even more activities w ill lie
upon those factors which are
we may be forced to Increase
to perm it more orderly mone­
wielding Ihe paring knire. I
lik ely to cause ab re ath li< spell
our commitment In ord er to re­
tary conditions. If the economic
forecast that the net result
In economic activity. P o liti­
tain this upper hand.
situation falters badly, money
w ill be a rise In unemployment
cians and labor leaders have a
8. I predict, therefore, that
rates w ill, of course, move
next year.
phobia against even a hesitancy
m ilita ry spending w ill be raised
downward sharply.
26. I do not look forprlceand
in business, and rush headloi<
In 1967. This can help soften
wage controls In 1967, unless
Into measure designed to treat
the Impact of any easing In
BUILDING OUTLOOK DIM
our defense expenditures rise
a case of pneumonia when cold
the private sector of th e
18. I predict that com m er­
far above whal la now contem­
p ills
would be more
ap­
economy.
cial and Industrial building w ill
plated.
propriate.
trend lower In 1967, reflecting
1. Although business and fi­
THE DOMESTIC SCENE
the tapering off In capital out­
GAIN IN GROSS PAY
nancial problems loom large
lays.
9. Turning now to domestic
27. An encouraging aspect of
In the prospects for 1967, I
conditions, I foresee a definite
19. Mortgage money s h o u ld
the 1967 outlook Is the affluence
must firs t warn readers that
deceleration In business ac­
remain scarce In 1967. Hence,
of consumers. I forecast a fu r­
the greatest danger for the
tivity in 1967. The fantastic
residential building should see
ther upward trend In personal
year ahead does not exist on
boom Is In need of a rest.
another disappointing year.
Incomes, due to higher wage
the domestic front. Surely it
Instead of the strong uptrend of
20. 1967 opens with the buil­
rates. However, If taxes are
w ill be developments abroad
recent years, I look fo r a high
ding of single homes In a state
raised, take-home pay may not
that w ill hold the gravest threat
level of Industrial production
of c ris is . Starts are down over
show a rise commensurate with
to our country. These could be
40% from y e a r-e a rlle r levels.
early In the year; but unless
the gain In gross pay.
economic as well as m ilita ry
some new stimulus Is Intro­
As a result, I forecast that the
28. Retail trade held up well
o r political.
duced, I fear that a crestlng-
Administration w ill leave no
In 1966, but there was a note
2. I forsee no war between
stone unturned to stimulate con­
over pattern Is likely to develop
of lethargy throughout the year.
the United States and Russia
as 1967 progresses.
struction of houses as soon as
The pattern Is not expected
In 1967. However, tensions be­
possible. At best, however, It
10. I forecast a continuation
Io show much change In 1967 . . .
tween the two world leaders
may be midyear o r after before
of the tug of war between In­
with gains In dollar volume la r ­
may seem to reach the break­
this Important part of our econ­
flation and deflation In 1967.
gely reflecting price Inflation.
ing point as the Krem lin "goes
omy can c o n t r i b u t e much
Though consumers w ill have
Tight cred it, and Increased pro­
a ll out” to create diversions
strength to o ver-all business.
ductive capacity resulting from
more money to spend, tight
to our efforts In Vietnam .
21. Although new h o u s in g
cred it, high borrowing costs,
the flood of business capital
Look for Moscow to throw salt
starts may remain In the dol­
and higher price levels could
expenditures in recent years,
on festering wounds In the
drums for most of 1967, I
cause some tightening of purse
are deflationary. However, I
Middle East, A frica and G er­
confidently forecast that the
strings.
can see no substantial re lie f
many.
29. Spending for food, apparel
from the Inflation In labor and year w ill see the beginning of
3. I am also hopeful that a
a great boom In the construc­
and general merchandise should
other operating costs. In short,
direct clash between Red China
tion of new, modern nursing
be greater In 1967. Also, con­
we can have "cost-push’ In­
and the U. S. can be avoided
homes.
sumers w ill devote a goodly
flation co-exlstlng with defla­
In 1967. Internal dissensions
22. Despite President John­
portion of their spending budget
tion.
are rampant throughout Main­
son’s request for cutbacks, pub­
for leisure activities, vacation
11. A key factor In the busi­
land China, and a great scram ­
lic construction should enjoy a
and travel.
ness and financial outlook for
ble for power Is In full swing.
fa irly good year; the emphasis
30. Durable goods may not
1967 is taxes. With defense
Sabre-rattling may help to uni­
w ill be on bridges, dams, and
fare so well. Demand for home
outlays clim bing, I look fo r a
fy the people; but pressing prob­
water and sewer systems.
appliances, color TV sets, and
rise In corporate and personal
lem s of low productivity, plus
23. The expected declines In
furniture may be hampered by
taxes In 1967.M o re o v e r,¡fo re ­
the demands of her nuclear
residential building andlncom -
tight credit and high borrowing
cast that various levies at the
program , should restrain Red
m ere tai and Industrial building
costs, plus the lethargy In new
state and local levels w ill con­
China from d irec t attack upon
notwithstanding, I forecast that
home building.
tinue to increase.
the United States.
waterfront property w ill remain
31. I forecast a decline In
12. The tightening tax squeeze
4. The struggle for leader­
a good Inflation hedge.
new aulo sales. However, with
on all fronts w ill worsen as the
ship of the Communist world
year advances. And there w ill
camp w ill continue unabated
be rising complaints from both
throughout 1967. Full political
businessmen
and employees
attack w ill be mounted by the
that social security taxes are
K rem lin against Peking. It w ill
becoming unbearable.
be touch and go, however,
13. Results of the recent
whether Russia can persuade
elections indicate that the head­
her wavering satellites to sign
long run of the Great Society
a final manifesto reading Red
Program must take a breather
China out of the Party.
along with the economy. Gains
5. Recent elections In West
scored by the Republicans have
Germany have fanned the em­
altered the balance of power
bers of nationalism into a tiny
sufficiently to force a more
flam e. This has surely thrown
sober look In public spending.
a scare Into Russian leaders.
14. One of the p rim ary rea­
I predict that they w ill take a
sons for expecting a dec e l-
eziA/
im iw ase
ine population
of the d r tv ti* ag», an<1 with the
record rate of personal Income,
new car sales could hold with
10% of 1966’a.
SOAKING LIVING COSTS
32. Soaring living coats will
hit the headlines more often In
1967. Ire will be directed moat
strongly at runaway service
e x p e n s e a — especially medi­
cal--and at advancing red meal
prices.
33. Despite new highs In Ute
cost of living, I predici there
w ill be many eigne of defla­
tion In the midst of Inflation.
Chief among these w ill tie s li­
ding p r o f i t s , rising bank­
ruptcies and foreclosures.
34. Industrial commodity p ri­
ces should he firm to slightly
higher. Selective price markups
w ill he necessary lo of feet wage
hikes.
35. Profils liegen lo wobble
Coni.
Greet the
W W BUM
I k '#
Resolve to take your place
in the fun, fun, fun of our gala
New Year's Eve celebration.
(/1/luAic (w
______
nn
Gold Ocach. Oregon
Bo» fclfc
97444
y
W*
take this
opportunity
to express
sincere
thanks to all
our friends.
WUTfRN BÜILPERS SI/PM . :XC
A message for absent-minded savers
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ay the New Year hold fo r you a ll . ...
good health, good lim es and good fortune. We
look fo rw a rd Io serving you next year! •
chim ing in with
\ ‘ U Year s greetings
Oceanside Dodge
OR BEFORE
JANUARY 10
and a sincere ‘ thank you" to our fine patrons.
D icie and Francis Morrison
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