PAGE 8
“Succeeding in Iraq also requires defending its territorial
integrity — and stabilizing the region in the face of the extremist
challenge This begins with addressing Iran and Syria These
two regimes are allowing terrorists and insurgents to use their
territory to move in and out o f Iraq. Iran is providing material
support for attacks on American troops. We will disrupt the
attacks on our forces. We will interrupt the flow o f support from
Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks
providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in
Iraq..."
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PETER 0. I ZIERLEIN
PARSING THE SURGE
FROM PAGE
since left the country to flee the violence and have set up new
lives elsewhere. Regarding constitutional reform, there is little
hope at this point that the flawed U.S.-organized constitutional
process can overcome its current deadlock.
“America will change our approach to help the Iraqi
government as it works to meet these benchmarks. In keeping
with the recommendations o f the Iraq Study Group, we will
increase the embedding o f American advisers in Iraqi Army
units — and partner a Coalition brigade with every Iraqi Army
division. We will help the Iraqis build a larger and better
equipped Army — and we will accelerate the training of Iraqi
forces, frhich remains the essential U.S. security mission in
Iraq..."
The U.S. spent much of 2006 training Iraqi troops,
having trained an additional 100,000 forces, yet there was an
increase in violence. And while there has been training of troops,
there has been a severe lack of equipment provided to the Iraqi
forces Bush does not acknowledge the root of the problem with
the Iraqi forces — their sectarian allegiances Without allegiance
to Iraqi government, there is little evidence that these forces can
be effective.
“We will give our commanders and civilians greater flexi
bility to spend funds for economic assistance We will double the
number o f Provincial Reconstruction Teams. These teams bring
together military and civilian experts to help Iraqi communities
pursue reconciliation, strengthen moderates, and speed the
transition to Iraqi self-reliance And Secretary (of State Condo-
leezzajRice will soon appoint a reconstruction coordinator in
Baghdad to ensure better results for economic assistance being
spent in Iraq..."
Having spent more than $20 billion on reconstruction
projects, the United States has little to show for its efforts. Levels
of electricity, water, sewage, and unemployment have remained
virtually unchanged over the past nearly four years Oversight
of projects has been sorely needed and should help prevent
the problems of waste, fraud, and abuse but it will not change
the concept and design of these programs which have been
unsuccessful in reconstructing Iraq.
7
While al-Qaida is stronger in Anbar than other provinces
it still constitutes only a tiny minority of the insurgency there.
Most of the insurgency in Anbar consists of homegrown Sunni
Islamists, tribal groups, Baathists, and other nationalists. The
U.S. military estimates that foreign fighters represents barely
5% of the insurgency. The overwhelming majority of those
fighting in Anbar have no desire to build a radical Islamic empire
or attack the United States. They want to rid their country of
foreign occupation forces and oust a government they see as
repressive, corrupt, and too closely aligned with their Persian
and American enemies. The majority of insurgents unaffiliated
with al-Qaida would likely put down their arms and join a broad
coalition government in return for amnesty and a timetable for
a U.S. withdrawal, options the Bush administration has rejected.
“Our military forces in Anbar are killing and capturing
al-Qaida leaders— and protecting the local population. Recently,
local tribal leaders have begun to show their willingness to take
on al-Qaida. As a result, our commanders believe we have an
opportunity to deal a serious blow to the terrorists. So I have
given orders to increase American forces in Anbar Province
by 4,000 troops..."
The tactics and ideology of al-Qaida has indeed alien
ated large numbers of Iraqis, but that does not mean it would
support the presence of American forces in Anbar or end its
attacks against them, particularly if the number of U.S. troops
increases.
“These troops will work with Iraqi and tribal forces to step
up the pressure on the terrorists. America's men and women in
uniform took away al-Qaida's safe haven in Afghanistan — and
we will not allow them to reestablish it in Iraq..."
By sending American troops to Iraq, the Bush adminis
tration has allowed al-Qaida not only to establish a base in Iraq,
but to greatly expand its forces and sympathizers throughout the
Islamic world. By sending even more troops into Iraq, al-Qaida
will likely grow even stronger.
“As we make these changes, we will continue to pursue
al-Qaida and foreign fighters Al-Qaida is still active in Iraq. Its
home base is Anbar Province Al-Qaida has helped make Anbar
the most violent area o f Iraq outside the capital A captured al-
Qaida docurhent describes the terrorists’ plan to infiltrate and
seize control of the province. This would bring al-Qaida closer
to goals of taking down Iraq’s democracy, building a radical
Islamic empire, and launching new attacks on the United States
at home and abroad ."
The idea that the Shiite government of Iran is providing
material support for the insurgency against U.S. forces is ludi
crous. It is apparently yet another of a series of false allegations
leveled by the administration against Iran as part of an effort to
justify possible future military action against that country. What
Iran has done, however, is to actively support Shiite militias
within the Iraqi government. For example, Iraqi Interior Minister
Bayan Jabr was trained by Iran’s infamous Revolutionary Guards
and later served as a leader of the Badr Brigade, the militia of
the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Ameri
cans have also trained Interior Ministry police and commandos
and has effectively allied with Iran in supporting Shiite extremists
in an effort to suppress Sunni insurgents. In other words, Iran
is not backing the insurgency fighting U.S. forces but is backing
elements of the same government supported by the United
States.
Claims of active Syrian support for the insurgents are
also grossly exaggerated. The ruling Baath Party of Syria long
opposed what have become the two main elements of the
insurgency: Saddam’s Iraqi wing of the Baath Party and the
radical Sunni Islamist groups (which have also challenged the
regime in Damascus). While foreign fighters supporting the
insurgency have slipped through the long poorly demarcated
desert border between the two countries, the Bush administra
tion has not presented any convincing evidence that the Syrian
government is actively encouraging or facilitating such activity.
By promising to “seek out and destroy" those allegedly support
ing the insurgency, President Bush may be preparing a pretext
to expand the war into neighboring countries, as previous Presi
dents expanded the Vietnam War in Laos and Cambodia.
Meanwhile, the Bush administration has rejected the
Baker/Hamilton Commission’s key recommendation to engage
diplomatically with Syria and Iran in order to help stabilize the
region.
“We are also taking steps to bolster the security of Iraq
and protect American interests in the Middle East. I recently
ordered the deployment o f an additional carrier strike group to
the region. We will expand intelligence sharing — and deploy
Patriot air defense systems to reassure our friends and allies..."
It's unclear how sailing an additional aircraft carrier
strike group into the Persian Gulf will contribute to stabilizing
the violent chaos in Iraq's cities. Instead, this could be part of
preparations for U.S. military strikes on Iran. Similarly, given
that the Iraq insurgency does not have any intermediate or
long-range missile capacity, the deployment of Patriot air
defense systems doesn’t seem to make sense either. This
may be part of a preparation to defend against Syrian or Iranian
counter-attacks in the event of U.S. strikes on those countries.
Or it might simply be another boondoggle for U.S. arms
merchants. The most the United States could do to reassure
its allies in the region is to stop engaging in provocative military
operations that result in an extremist backlash.
“We will work with the governments o f Turkey and Iraq
and help them resolve problems along their border. ."
This will be tricky, to say the least. Thanks largely to
a series of U.S. policies the Baghdad government essentially
has no control over its border with Turkey or anywhere in the
Kurdish dominated northern part of its country. The quasi
independent status of Iraqi Kurdistan has emboldened ethnic
Kurds in southeastern Turkey to renew their struggle for
autonomy and independence and has provoked the Turkish
government to renew its counter-insurgency efforts and political
repression, including incursions into Iraqi territory. Meanwhile,
the ethnic Turk minority in northern Iraq is feeling increasing
persecution as well from U.S.-backed Kurdish militias. If U.S.
diplomacy continues to be as inept as it has been elsewhere
in the region, the Iraqi-Turkish border region could deteriorate
into full-scale war.
“And we will work with others to prevent Iran from gain
ing nuclear weapons and dominating the region..."
It is the United States, which already deploys nuclear
weapons on its planes and ships, that currently dominates the
region and will continue to do so whether the Iranians or anyone
else likes it or not. If indeed, Iran does harbor nuclear weapons
ambitions, such weapons are presumably designed to deter
possible American and Israeli attacks. Iran witnessed U.S. forces
invade its immediate neighbors to the east and west: Afghanis
tan and Iraq. With repeated threats by the U.S. government to
attack Iran as well, it is not unreasonable to appreciate why that
country might desire a nuclear deterrent. Finally, despite pledges
to “work with others,” the Bush administration has certainly not
abandoned its willingness to challenge Iran unilaterally.
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