July 2015
FEATURES
Dear EarthTalk: Where will be the
best places to live if global warming
gets the best of us?
– Cynthia McIntosh, Jasper, Wyoming
If temperatures around the
globe continue to rise in the face of
human-induced climate change as
climatologists expect, some of the
world’s most populous areas could
become uninhabitable.
Rising sea levels will flood out
coastal areas, while increasing drought
will make survival in already arid
areas difficult at best. While we may
have at least a few decades of runway
to prepare ourselves for the worst,
advance planners might want to think
carefully about where to put down
roots now.
According to the Notre Dame Global
Adaptation Index that measures
and ranks 175 countries based on
vulnerability and readiness to adapt
to climate change, Scandinavian
countries—Norway, Sweden, Finland
and Denmark—just might be the
safest spot in the carbon-compromised
world of the future.
ND-GAIN researchers stress that
residents of just about any developed
country (including the U.S., Canada,
Australia, New Zealand, Russia,
China and most of Europe) will likely
be fine staying put given the fact
that better-heeled governments are
already gearing up to adapt to warmer
temperatures, more intense storms,
rising sea levels and other expected
changes.
On the flip side, the worst places to
be may be mid-latitude developing
countries, including most of Africa
and South Asia. The countries ND-
GAIN predicts will be hardest hit by
climate change include Chad, Eritrea,
Burundi, the Democratic Republic of
Congo, the Central African Republic,
Sudan, Niger, Haiti, Afghanistan and
Guinie Bissau.
Americans looking for the best
place to live domestically as the
world warms should also look north.
Alaska and the Pacific Northwest,
both blessed with plenty of water and
plenty of terrain well above sea level,
are generally acknowledged to be the
best parts of the country to be in under
a new climate regime.
In fact, University of Washington
atmospheric science professor Cliff
Mass believes the Pacific Northwest
will be “a potential climate refuge”
in coming decades. He writes in his
popular weather blog that Washington
State could soon become the nation’s
premiere wine production region as
California’s vineyards continue to
be slammed by years and years of
drought.
Meanwhile, UCLA environmental
economics professor, Matthew Kahn,
says that otherwise fading cities
like Minneapolis, Milwaukee and
Detroit will become more and more
attractive as their counterparts to the
south (Miami, Phoenix, Los Angeles,
San Diego) take the brunt of global
warming’s fury.
In his 2010 book, Climatopolis, Kahn
predicts that Detroit will be one of the
nation’s most desirable cities by 2100.
Other climate change winners could
include Vermont, Pennsylvania, Ohio,
Indiana and Colorado.
Not everyone agrees that Detroit
The Southwest Portland Post • 7
Some consider Seattle and the rest of the Pacific Northwest to be a potential refuge for
Americans looking to escape drought-stricken southern states.
(Photo by Howard Ignatius, FlickrCC)
will be the golden city of our future
world. Author Giles Slade contends
in his 2013 book, American Exodus, that
we all may be heading for northern
Canada when global warming’s fury
really starts to kick in.
“The safest places will be significant
communities in the north that are
not isolated, that have abundant
water, that have the possibility of
agricultural self-sufficiency, that have
little immediate risk of forest fires, that
are well elevated, and that are built on
solid rock,” he writes. “Our northern
lands are our Noah’s ark—a vital refuge
against the moment of mankind’s
greatest need.”
EarthTalk® is written and produced
by Doug Moss & Roddy Scheer and is
a registered trademark of Earth Action
Network Inc. View past columns at: www.
earthtalk.org. E-mail us your question:
earthtalk@emagazine.com. Contacts:
Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-
GAIN), www.gain.org; Cliff Mass Weather
Blog, www.cliffmass.blogspot.com.
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