August 2013
FEATURES
Dear EarthTalk: Hurricane Sandy
brought more sea water onto shore-
lines than I’d ever witnessed before
and many communities near where I
live are now being required to raise
their homes up. What is the prog-
nosis for sea level rise in the years
immediately ahead?
-- Scott P., Fairfield, CT
Since sea level measurements
were first recorded, in 1870, global
averages have risen almost eight
inches. The annual rate of rise has
been 0.13 inches over the past 20
years, which is close to twice the
average from the previous 80 years.
Future estimates for sea levels
vary according to region but most
Earth scientists agree that sea levels
are expected to rise at a greater pace
than during the last 50 years.
Predicting the amount of rise is
an inexact science and depends
on many factors including climate
change and ice sheet flows.
The U.S. National Research Coun-
cil predicts a possible sea level rise
of between 22 and 29 inches over
the 21st century in the U.S. Sea
levels are anticipated to continue
rising for centuries.
According to the U.S. Environ-
mental Protection Agency (EPA),
land elevation changes also have a
large impact on the effects of rising
water levels. Subsidence (sinking)
or uplift (rising) of the land can help
determine the relative sea level rise.
The EPA’s relative sea level esti-
mates, assuming a two foot global
sea level rise by 2100, are 2.3 feet at
New York City, 2.9 feet at Hampton
Roads, Virginia, 3.5 feet at Galves-
ton, Texas, and one foot at Neah Bay
in Washington state.
The main factors contributing to
sea level rise are thermal expansion
(created by an increase in ocean wa-
ter temperatures) and the melting of
ice caps and glaciers.
Human activities, such as the
burning of fossil fuels, combined
with natural activities, have con-
tributed to the rise of the earth’s
surface temperature over the past
century.
According to National Geographic,
about 80 percent of this additional
heat is absorbed by the oceans.
The above factors are well stud-
ied, but more research is still being
done on how climate change will
impact large ice sheets in areas such
as Greenland and the Antarctic. An
extra foot of sea level rise could be
a possibility depending on what
happens with these larger ice sheets.
Even small changes in sea levels
can have adverse effects on coastal
areas. Erosion, flooding of wetlands,
aquifer and agricultural soil con-
tamination, and habitat loss for fish,
birds and plants are all problems
resulting from rising sea levels.
Also, higher sea levels usually
mean more destructive weather
events as storm surges get bigger
and more powerful and devastate
The Southwest Portland Post • 7
Most Earth scientists agree that future sea levels will rise at a greater pace than during the
last 50 years. Coastal communities will suffer the most, as flooding from rising water levels
will force millions of people out of their homes. Pictured: flooding in Marblehead, Mas-
sachusetts caused by Hurricane Sandy on October 29, 2012. (Photo courtesy of The Berkes)
everything in their way. Coastal
communities will suffer the most,
as flooding from rising water levels
will force millions of people out of
their homes.
As for what can be done, reducing
our collective carbon footprint is no
doubt the first and most important
step. Individuals should drive and
fly less, walk and bicycle more and
take advantage of public transit.
But sweeping policy changes
will have the most impact: A recent
commitment by the Obama White
House to require coal-burning pow-
er plants and other large industrial
operations to minimize greenhouse
gas emissions should finally help
get the United States started on the
right track, but many wonder if such
moves represent too little too late.
Contacts: U.S. National Research
Council, www.nationalacademies.
org/nrc; EPA Climate Change
Future, www.epa.gov/climat-
echange/science/future.html; Na-
tional Geographic Sea Level Rise,
ocean.nationalgeographic.com/
ocean/critical-issues-sea-level-
rise/.
EarthTalk® is written and edited by
Roddy Scheer and Doug Moss and is a
registered trademark of E - The Envi-
ronmental Magazine (www.emagazine.
com). Send questions to: earthtalk@
emagazine.com.
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