18 Summer 2017 Applegater
OPINIONS
Big numbers!
River Right
BY TOM CARSTENS
It’s clearly a budget. It’s got a lot of
numbers in it. —George W. Bush.
The combination of big snowmelt and
big rain has meant that all our rivers have
big water. River flows are measured in
cubic feet per second (CFS); these numbers
are also big right now. The folks I paddle
with study these numbers. You could call
it “risk-budgeting.” Little kayaks on big,
roiling water can make for interesting trips.
It is budget time and that brings
another set of big numbers. Federal, state,
county—everyone’s trying to match needs
with resources. Well, the feds, not so
much—they can spend without regard for
income in spite of being over $20 trillion
in the hole. It’s hard to wrap my head
around that number, which comes out to
over $61,000 of debt for every American.
Not sure how that’ll be repaid. At least, by
law, Oregon’s state and local governments
must balance their budgets.
Our legislature has been trying to
work out a $1.6 billion shortfall in
projected revenues. The Democrats want
to raise taxes. They contort themselves into
framing income redistribution schemes
that make it seem like someone else will be
paying the tab. But they don’t fool most of
us—in the end, we know who pays the tab.
Beleaguered, Republicans are suggesting
we try cutting some spending.
Last February, the joint Senate-House
Committee on Ways and Means held a
series of meetings throughout the state to
gather public input on what to do. Did you
attend the one in Ashland? Even though
speakers were limited to two minutes
each, it was a full three-hour parade of
sacred cows competing to spare the knife. I
brought up the uncomfortable fact that the
state actually has an unfunded liability of
around $22 billion (and growing), mostly
due to future Public Employees Retirement
System (PERS) pension obligations.
That full amount is not yet a deficit on
today’s balance sheet, but it does represent
promises for which we have no idea how
we’ll pay.
Not really understanding how big that
number is, I worked out that 22 billion
seconds ago or 697 years is the year 1320,
which is 172 years before Columbus
first set sail. And the world was still flat!
Put another way, that’s over $5,000 per
Oregonian. It’s so much money that our
Global warming and
sustainable agriculture
BY RAY SEIDLER, PHD
“Climate change” is the long-term
trend in the Earth’s climate (changes in
temperature, wind, precipitation, strength
and frequency of extreme weather events).
“Global warming” refers to the increase in
Earth’s average surface temperature due to
increased concentrations of greenhouse
gases (GHG). “Sustainable agricultural
practices” are farming techniques that
protect the environment, soil health and
productivity, and public health, human
communities, and animal welfare.
How does all this come together?
A lot of Applegate Valley agriculture
is known to involve sustainable and near-
sustainable agricultural practices. These
practices protect neighbors, use few if any
toxic synthetic pesticides, and attract more
consumers who seek foods, plants, and
“vine imbibes” with enhanced health and
nutritional properties.
Climate models suggest that global
warming from the release of greenhouse
gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide) will change everything about
our future agriculture industry.
The graph shows temperature trends
anticipated for Jackson County, including
the Applegate area, through the year
2100 based on mathematical modeling
conducted by US Geological Survey
scientists. The upper line represents the
mean maximum temperature scenario that
assumes consumption of fossil fuels at the
accelerating rate we have exhibited to date
(“business as usual” or BAU). Meanwhile,
the lower line assumes we change the
trajectory and slow the rate of accelerating
fossil fuel use and GHG emissions by
about 50 percent.
As illustrated by the graph, we have
already experienced a 1.5-degrees F mean
increase in annual temperature during the
1950 to 2005 period. It shows another 4
degrees F expected to be phased in over
the next 40 years, with an additional
4.1-degrees F increase (9.6 degrees F total)
by the end of the twenty-first century if we
follow BAU.
These models predict less snowpack for
summer irrigation, earlier spring snowmelt
providing less irrigation water during the
late growing season, and a reduction in soil
moisture. Anticipated are:
• Changes in the current natural fauna
and flora
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• A necessity to change crops using
cultivars more adapted to a warmer
environment (such as different grape
varietals)
• Possible losses of beneficial biological
control and pollinator populations
• Warming river temperatures as riparian
vegetation zones change (disappear?)
• A significantly increased area involved in
wildfires and, therefore, increased potential
for soil erosion
Scientists have estimated that the
global food system and conventional
agriculture practices contribute one-third
of the GHG emissions and account for
some 30 percent of the world’s energy
consumption (nature.com/news/one-
third-of-our-greenhouse-gas-emissions-
come-from-agriculture-1.11708). Fossil
fuel combustion for the production of
ammonia fertilizer, mining, and shipping
of other mineral fertilizers, soil preparation,
synthesis and application of pesticides,
manufacturing farm equipment, and the
harvesting and shipping of food thousands
of miles from where it was produced all
contribute to energy demands. In the
Rogue Valley, we are now receiving fruits,
including table grapes, from Chile, located
some 6,000 miles away.
Adding to the problem is the loss of
soil organic matter as carbon dioxide,
largely since World War II, due to farming
practices that physically disturb the soil
Temperature assuming the BAU trend
of accelerating fossil fuel consumption
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°F
legislators don’t really have a clue how
they’re going to deal with it. Out of around
4,400 bills presented this session, not one
addresses this.
Give credit to our own Senator Alan
DeBoer. He’s about the only guy in Salem
actually looking for solutions to this huge
problem. He thinks the PERS unfunded
liability will eventually reach $50 billion if
we don’t act. Now, that’s a wow.
Among other things, he’s tinkering
around with individual and corporate taxes
to try to get at the “unfunded” part. He
should be careful: we don’t want to look
like Illinois, breathlessly trying to tax our
way out of financial difficulty while citizens
and businesses scurry off to states with
more favorable tax climates. Think of it as
the “self-draining swamp effect.”
Sooner rather than later, we’re going
to have to look directly at the “liability”
part, i.e. the lopsided contract the public
employee has with the taxpayer. That’s
going to take some political courage and
leadership. Without it, we’re going to see
some real pain. All those sacred cows could
be headed for the slaughterhouse. We’re
already seeing consequential cuts to local
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Consumption of fossil fuels at reduced rate
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1950
1960
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1990
2000
2010
2020
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2050
2060
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2090
2100
Temperature trends for the Rogue Valley from 1950 to 2100 using data from the US Geological Survey
(2.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/nccv/viewer.asp). Graph provided by Alan Journet, PhD, of Southern Oregon Climate Action Now.
Tom Carstens
school budgets. (Why do schools always
seem to be the first to get the ax?)
Meanwhile, DeBoer is also looking
at how the state could relieve the PERS
liability from local governments. A
significant percentage of our two county
payrolls is encumbered by pension costs.
Josephine County tries to work in these
costs up front with each new hire, but it’s
hard to project; legislative relief will be
needed to address the spiraling pressure.
Jackson County maintains a “rainy day”
fund, but the county can’t keep this up
forever—PERS will someday “eat our
lunch,” says the county administrator.
At least we can take some budget
comfort here in the valley. Our Applegate
Valley Fire District is one public entity
that provides great support at a bargain-
basement price. Small numbers, zero
drama, big payback. Maybe we ought to
put those guys in charge.
See you on the river…but watch those
numbers!
Tom Carstens
541-846-1025
and use nonspecific toxic chemicals to
control pests. This destroys the soil’s health
and sustainability.
Scientists believe that if some
atmospheric carbon dioxide gas is
sequestered back into the soils to again form
soil organic carbon, further global warming
can be at least partially slowed. It is possible
that 5 to 15 percent of annual global
carbon dioxide emissions can be offset by
increased global soil carbon sequestration
(cdn2.sustainabilitylabs.org/ecosystem-
restoration/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/
Soil-Carbon-Sequestration-Impacts.pdf ).
Financial incentives to sequester carbon
by using sustainable agricultural practices
include improved fertility and soil water-
holding capacity and increased crop yields.
Soil carbon sequestration is only a minor
part of the total repair of global warming.
Reduction in fossil fuel emissions coupled
with soil carbon sequestration is vital for
buying time to find more significant ways
to slow climate change.
Practices that facilitate soil carbon
sequestration are:
• Decreasing the level of soil disturbance
(tillage)
• Increasing the mass of organic inputs
to soils (organic fertilizers free of toxic
chemicals, plants with numerous deep
roots)
• Improving soil microbial diversity
and abundance by increasing soil organic
matter and avoiding or limiting toxic
pesticides
• Adopting year-round cover crops and
crop rotation.
Ray Seidler, PhD
rayseidler@msn.com
Ray Seidler is a retired professor of
microbiology, former senior research scientist
with the US Environmental Protection
Agency, and board member of Our Family
Farms in Medford, Oregon.
