BUSINESS COMMENT
2
Coast River Business Journal
Publisher’s Notebook
What will ‘normal’ look like in 2022 and beyond?
H
ow will 2022 diff er from 2021?
Considering the generally positive trajectory
of this region’s economy before the pandemic,
there’s a temptation to hope for a broader return
to “normal” — competent businesses being
able to make predictable profi ts, free from
much worry about being able to fi nd aff ordable
supplies and enough employees. Will we get there in 2022? Should we
even realistically hope to?
Clatsop and Pacifi c counties are each in the midst of sharp upswings
in COVID-19 infections, most likely from the fast-spreading omicron
variant. While dealing with many new cases all at once is concerning,
the experience in South Africa, London and elsewhere suggests
omicron could fade fast. Additional viral variants are possible, but
there are glimmers of light at the end of this long, dark tunnel.
Predicting the future of economies is almost as doubtful as
forecasting the evolution of a novel virus, but some broad trends can
be discerned.
• Our distance from the population centers along Interstate 5 isn’t
the handicap it once was. The ability of many to work remotely won’t
end commuting or the need to personally attend to some jobs, but
has permanently opened new living options for hundreds of thousands
of people along the West Coast. It doesn’t take a very big trickle of
newcomers to invigorate and transform our relatively small business
sector.
• The red-hot real estate sector may cool down a little in 2022 — or,
then again, it may not. Construction is adding to our housing inventory,
but there’s a long way to go before we reach equilibrium between
buyers and sellers. The supply of dwellings available is hovering
around fi ve or six weeks in both Clatsop and Pacifi c counties, whereas
a four- or fi ve-months’ supply represents about the midway point
between being a buyer’s or seller’s market.
• Social unrest has subsided in nearby cities but there continues
to be a sense of insecurity about personal safety and civic destiny
in Portland-Vancouver and Seattle. This unease, coupled with the
ability to sell city homes for eye-watering sums, will continue
Matt Winters • January 2022
driving relocations to bucolic places like the coast. But on the fl ip
side, fi nding services here could be a challenge — from physicians to
handimen, providers are in tight supply. There are good opportunities
for ambitious entrepreneurs to address these needs.
• Outdoor recreation — and tourism in general — will continue
to grow in economic importance. Snow Peak USA’s enormous vote
of confi dence in the appeal of the Long Beach Peninsula is a prime
example of how recreation has the potential to drive other forms of
development.
• Domestic lumber and paper, seafood, farm products and other
commodities will take on renewed importance in light of ongoing
demand and supply chain problems. Automation means some of
these basic industries will never be the job-producers they once were,
but the jobs they do generate are incredibly important — creating
tangible new value from renewable natural resources. Maintaining a
balance between these and the need for residential expansion — in a
region laced with landslides, wetlands and protected forests — will
be among this century’s greatest challenges.
There are good reasons to hope 2022 will see a gradual end to
the pandemic and many of the painful disruptions and suff ering it
brought. This is an exciting time to live on this coast.
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