BUSINESS NEWS
2 • June 2020
Coast River Business Journal
Publisher’s Notebook
June 2020 Matt Winters
Rational optimism will help see us through crisis
E
ven as states begin a slug-like crawl toward
a squished and twisted “normal,” we’re still
somewhere in the between times — far from the
happy semi-prosperity we took for granted, but
still unable to peek into a foggy future. If this were
a train wreck in an old silent movie, we’re in the
locomotive teetering at the broken end of a rickety wooden trestle,
holding our breaths to see if we fall or can back away from disaster.
We haven’t been hit by a giant asteroid — not yet anyway —
but this spring’s cavalcade of bad news proves the wisdom of
the ancient Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.”
Recent years that led up to our pandemic, societal shutdown, mass
unemployment, civil unrest and federal perfidy were certainly
far from ideal. Billions struggled while a few became obscenely
rich. Even so, who wouldn’t wish away the severe shocks of the
past three months? Interesting times come with much pain and
heartache.
One of my favorite old media bosses maintained that, at least
on a local level, how economic news is portrayed has a large role
in how the economy actually performs. A positive view keeps up
morale, and good morale translates into business investment and
consumer spending. This strategy largely assumes the economy is
an artificial agreement between us all, a game in which optimism
and exuberance can bend the rules in our favor. It’s a fairly valid
approach — but has its limits.
The nearly countless linkages between individuals and the
economy that supports us are under enormous strain. To outline
just one local example, covid-19 led to travelers and governments
limiting air travel, which led to airlines cutting flights and grounding
planes, which led to job cuts at a local manufacturer of airliner-
towing tractors, which leads to less spending on everything from
rent to seafood dinners, which leads to landlords and restaurant
owners having less ability to make their own payments, and
diminishes lenders’ willingness to provide new loans. No amount
of positivity can overcome a valid concern about the chance of
catching a deadly virus.
Nowhere in the world is being spared this avalanche of teetering
and falling dominoes. It’s likely to take years for all the pieces to
come to rest in a new equilibrium from which a vibrant economy
can sprout.
Without peddling empty optimism — and acknowledging the
severe economic strains we all are under — Oregon and Washington
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are nevertheless better off than most places in the nation and around
the world. For example, looking at unemployment insurance
claims, Oregon is the least impacted in the U.S. since the start of
the pandemic, according to the financial services firm WalletHub.
Washington state — with a considerably larger economy — has
seen worse impacts, but is still better off than 17 other states despite
being the first epicenter of covid in the U.S. (Nationwide, Florida
and Georgia have been hardest hit by job losses.)
The Pacific Northwest enjoyed a strong economic base going
into this destructive crisis and thus has a more secure foundation
for rebuilding after the dust settles. Our assets, including a benign
climate and a highly qualified workforce, position us to take
advantage of new opportunities. Although renewed prosperity
is still a long way ahead, it’s essential that we do everything we
can to preserve what we have — good K-12 schools and world-
class universities, an amazing natural environment, innovative
companies, and much more. This is a great place to live. Let’s keep
it that way.
We can be realistic and optimistic at the same time. Without
sugarcoating what lies ahead in the immediate future, we can and
will succeed.
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