BUSINESS NEWS
2 • March 2020
Coast River Business Journal
Publisher’s Notebook
March 2020 Matt Winters
Business in a time of coronavirus: We’ll get by
I
t’s springtime and it’s weird time. There probably are lots
of March, April and May showers ahead before coastal
weather coalesces around consistently blue skies and
pleasant temperatures. But flower blossoms are already
bursting out all over. Shirtsleeve strolls have been possible
some days. Tourist traffic seems robust, considering the time of year.
On the other hand — and it’s a very big other hand — rampant
uncertainty surrounds the new Chinese coronavirus and the illness
it causes, Covid-19. On a recent visit to Costco in Warrenton, the
intensity of shopping might have led an uninformed observer to
suspect Genghis Khan’s Mongol Horde had been spotted descending
from Saddle Mountain. Clearly, nobody wants to get quarantined at
home without enough toilet paper.
But if fear of illness is a boon to some businesses, consumer
uncertainty is often bad news for others — especially those selling
durable goods.
Although some steadfastly resist the idea that Covid-19 will
amount to much — and we all certainly hope they are right — a new
strain of respiratory virus to which no one is immune is a challenge
far beyond the ordinary. Medical specialists have predicted for
years that we are overdue for a serious pandemic. But often weeks
or months must pass before it becomes clear just how deadly a new
germ is and how easily it passes from person to person. At the point
this is being written, American deaths can mostly be traced to just
one long-term care facility in the Seattle area — horrible and sad,
but not in itself enough to warrant massive continent-wide worry.
However, every day brings news of additional positive test results
around the nation and world. This could upset our local schedule of
passenger cruise ship stops. International air travel is taking a big
hit. An erratic stock market makes investors feel less inclined to
spend money.
Based on past experience, broad-scale economic disruptions can
actually bring more business to the coast. People on the Interstate
5 corridor are still going to be wanting to take a break, and it’s
possible to foresee an upsurge in visits to the seashores of the North
Coast and Southwest Washington.
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Another important local economic sector — real estate — could
experience a short-term pause. But the substantial emergency cut in
Federal Reserve interest rates should translate into something like
another quarter of a percent drop in already-low mortgage rates.
Coronavirus, for some urban people, may be the last straw that
generates a move to the coast.
Based on past experience, broad-scale
economic disruptions can actually bring
more business to the coast.
All this is hypothetical and vastly less important than saving lives.
Our counties with their disproportionately large 60-plus populations
will need to work hard to ensure that vulnerable residents get all
the help and reassurance they need until this fast-evolving crisis is
resolved.
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