8
in other words
may24
2011
Voices From the Crowd: The End of Empire
By Miles Wickstrom
One axiom that is universally
accepted among historians is that all
empires eventually collapse. Throughout
the history of mankind, there have been
no exceptions to that rule. Some, like
the Caliphate of the Middle East, last for
many centuries. Others, like the Third
Reich, didn’t last even one generation.
Some, like the Roman Empire, were
particularly memorable. Others, like
the Hittite Empire, you’ve never even
heard of, have you? One constant still
remains: empires always collapse.
That’s the rule.
All of us should naturally have
an interest in empire collapse because
we happen to live in an empire - the
American Empire, founded in 1790
when we trounced the British Empire
in the Revolutionary War. There are
several predictors that signal what
historian Dmitri Orlov calls “empire
collapse syndrome”, so let’s compare
the predictors of collapse with current
events and see where our particular
empire stands in its life cycle.
Empires typically – not always,
but typically – collapse as the result of
military overextension. The Roman
Empire is a good example. At the time
of the collapse of the Roman Empire in
476CE, its influence spanned four time
zones and encompassed an area of the
globe from Great Britain in the northwest
to Saudi Arabia in the southeast.
Militarily, the Roman legion
was one of the mightiest armies ever
assembled. Like a juggernaut, it rolled
across the map, conquering nation after
nation and bringing them under the itself. We repeat ourselves.
thumb of Rome. As you might imagine,
So, applying the lessons of
it is one thing to conquer, it’s another history, where does the American Empire
thing to rule. When Italy was invaded stand? We might consider that nearly
by the Visigoths and Vandals and later 50% of discretionary spending in the
the Huns in the fifth century, the Roman federal budget goes to the Pentagon. We
legion was spread so thinly that there might consider that we have more than
simply weren’t enough soldiers to defend 2000 military installations worldwide, at
the nation. The lesson here is valuable: least one in every time zone on the planet.
the further a nation attempts to extend We might even consider the fact that we
its influence through military means, have borrowed two billion dollars a day
the more vulnerable it
for the last seven years to
becomes to collapse.
fund the wars in Iraq and
In 1995,
We – all of us – had
Afghanistan. We might
America was
a front row seat to exactly
also consider the fact that
ranked number
this phenomenon. The
that borrowing accounts
USSR spanned six time
for $10 trillion of our $14
1 on scholastic
zones and existed from
trillion national debt, and
achievement
1922 to 1991 - not a terribly
counting.
tests. Last year,
impressive life span as far
That level of borrowing
we ranked 53rd.
as empires go, but certainly
comes at a terrible price.
rd
53
out
of
57
an imposing force in its
Each year, a larger slice
time. The Soviet Empire
of the budget pie goes to
countries.
repeated all the mistakes of
the military and prison
Rome. The ruinous costs
industrial
complexes
of the space race, the arms race, and the while a smaller slice goes to education,
Afghan war chewed up fully 27% of and it shows. In 1995, America
GDP. The result was an astronomical was ranked number 1 on scholastic
national debt. Without a functioning achievement tests. Last year, we ranked
cash flow, funding for social services 53rd. 53rd out of 57 countries. At least
stopped. Maintenance and expansion we can claim dominance over Somalia
of the country’s infrastructure stopped. and Kazakhstan, for what it’s worth.
Paychecks for military personnel
We’re losing our technological
stopped. In 1985, it abandoned the edge. The rest of the world is crisscrossed
prison system known as the gulag, not with bullet trains and magnetic levitation
because it ran out of dissidents, but rail systems. America – the nation
because it ran out of money. Six years that once was the gold standard for
later, the Russian Empire collapsed even technological innovation - has just one
though it still had nine thousand nuclear high speed rail line. The average speed?
warheads and a massive military.
62 MPH. The fastest computers in the
Note: history doesn’t repeat world are manufactured in China using
Chinese technology. I was taught that
communism was a political system that
was doomed to fail and I believed it. The
communist nation of China will pass
America as the world’s largest economy
sometime in the next 16 years. India –
ya know, that nation with all the starving
children? - will pass us in 2050, Brazil
ten years later.
Empires on a collapse trajectory
typically see it coming well in advance
even when they won’t openly admit it.
Once the writing on the wall becomes
legible, it seems to become irresistibly
tempting to rattle a few sabers one last
time in a show of nationalistic chest-
thumping. Thus, most empires have
marked their collapse with burning
cities, slaughtered civilians and martial
law. In a highly weaponized empire
such as ours, where there are more
privately owned firearms than there are
people, the worst case outcome is dire in
the extreme.
Empires always collapse. That’s
the rule. As much as we’d like to think
that rule doesn’t apply to us, the American
Empire will also collapse. That doesn’t
mean we will disappear from the face
of the Earth, but it does mean we will
need to learn how to accept second place
as The New Normal. While we almost
certainly passed the point of redemption
in 1982 when we sold the White House
to Wall Street, we can still plan the
transition. Will it include burning cities
and slaughtered civilians, or can we
create a softer landing? I sincerely hope
it is the latter.
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