...Ballot Measures
(From Page 1)
ready face term limits — they’re called
elections: Voters can and do decide not
to return incumbents to office. This
measure would take away voters right to
send back popular lawmakers.
Measure 46 would amend the Ore-
gon Constitution to allow laws that limit
or prohibit political campaign contribu-
tions or expenditures. Opponents say
this would permit limitations on free
speech — the Oregon Supreme Court
has ruled that under Oregon Constitu-
tion, campaign contributions are pro-
tected free speech.
Measure 47 would prohibit corpora-
tions and labor unions from contributing
to state and local candidates, political
committees or political parties, or mak-
ing independent expenditures support-
ing or opposing candidates or political
parties. It would also set up detailed lim-
itations on individual political contribu-
tions in state and local races. Opponents
say that it will tie the hands of member-
ship groups like unions, while provi-
sions limiting the ability of rich individ-
uals to fund their own campaigns would
be overturned in court.
Measure 48 — Of all the items for
voters to decide in the general election,
the one that has the greatest potential to
choke off state spending — on schools,
public safety and whatever else the state
spends money on — is Measure 48.
Measure 48, a constitutional amend-
ment, sounds simple and reasonable: It
limits increases in state spending to pop-
ulation growth, plus inflation.
But state needs don’t always rise ac-
cording to such neat formulas. When in-
vestigations determined that many Ore-
gon bridges had serious need of repair, it
was not a project that could wait. When
a recession threw record numbers of
Oregonians out of work beginning 2001,
the Legislature was able to respond to
the crisis by extending unemployment
benefits. Thanks to voter-approved
mandatory minimum sentences, the
prison population is growing faster than
the population overall. Thanks to the
postwar baby boom and the miracle of
modern medicine, the senior population
is growing faster than the population
overall. Prisoners and seniors are more
expensive than the population at large in
terms of state services. All these kinds
of expenditures come out of the state
budget and would be restrained by Mea-
sure 48 limits.
And Measure 48 could have a cou-
ple of perverse effects that aren’t obvi-
ous. One is the ratchet effect. During re-
cessions, government revenue tends to
fall. If Measure 48 were in place, and a
decline in revenues led to spending cuts
during a recession, future increases
would then be based on that lower level
of spending — basically, state govern-
ment could never catch up to the level
of services it provided prior to the reces-
sion-caused budget cuts. This ratchet ef-
fect would tighten the state’s belt every
time tax revenue falls.
Then there’s the fact that not all state
spending is equal. Some, such as mak-
ing good on past pension obligations or
OCTOBER 20, 2006
paying interest on past bonds — is re-
quired by law. Some spending is at-
tached to specific revenue, like gas tax
and road maintenance. But for the pur-
poses of the Measure 48 spending limi-
tation, these would be in the same boat
as discretionary K-12 budgets, or money
spent to generate federal matching
funds. Putting the squeeze on state
spending could mean walking away
from federal matching funds.
Perhaps most importantly, there’s a
tricky little economic factor that the
logic of Measure 48 ignores. Oregon’s
state budget — and government budg-
ets generally, have always grown faster
than population and inflation.
How can that be? While it’s true that
governments have grown as society has
become more complex (Oregonians had
no need of traffic courts or electrician li-
censing in 1890), it’s also true that over-
all per-person productivity and prosper-
ity grow faster than inflation.
Government can stay the same size, as a
share of economic output, and yet grow
faster than population and inflation —
because the economy is becoming more
productive.
And it turns out that Oregon already
has a state government spending limit
that takes such economic growth into
account. A state law limits spending
from the state’s general fund to 8 per-
cent of total personal income. The law
excludes bond proceeds, federal funds
and trust obligations from the limits.
Aggregate personal income is re-
garded as the best overall measure of a
state’s economy. Under Oregon’s exist-
ing spending limit, state government can
grow, but it can’t grow as a percentage
of the overall economy.
Measure 48, on the other hand,
would freeze Oregon’s government at
2006 levels, making it unable to meet
the needs of a 2016 citizenry or make
use of the potential prosperity of a 2026
economy.
In the 1990s, personal income grew
6.5 percent a year on average, while
population plus inflation was 4.7 percent
a year. Extrapolate that out over a
decade or two, and you’d see govern-
ment shrink in size relative to the private
sector. This kind of nitty-gritty gets to
why labor and business groups are op-
posed to Measure 48.
If it passes, bond rating agencies
have announced that Oregon’s credit rat-
ing would fall, meaning more tax dol-
lars would go to pay higher interest
rates.
In short, Measure 48 would be an ex-
periment. In fact, it’s an experiment be-
ing waged in several states, by a New
York real estate millionaire with ties to a
network of right-wing anti-government
groups. Howard Rich’s riches paid for
petitioners to gather signatures to qualify
Measure 48 for the ballot.
If it passes, the Legislature will be
unable to amend it, because it’s a change
to the Oregon Constitution. Under Mea-
sure 48, the state could exceed the limits
on a one-time basis but only if two-
thirds of both chambers of the Legisla-
ture agree, and a majority of voters ap-
prove the exception.
CRISIS IN HEALTH CARE: What Are We Doing About It?
A conference presented by the Oregon Chapter of the
Labor and Employment Relations Association
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Oregon Convention Center
777 NE Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd
Portland, Oregon 97232
REGISTRATION 8:00 am - 8:45 am
Continental Breakfast Served
WELCOME 8:45 am - 9:00 am
MORNING PLENARY 9:00 am - 10:15 am
Dr. John Santa, Assistant Director for Health Projects,
OHSU Center for Evidence-based Policy
Break 10:15 am - 10:30 am
WORKSHOPS 10:30 am - 11:45 am and 1:15 pm – 2:45 pm
•
•
•
•
A Better Mousetrap: Using Evidence in Benefit Design
•
Left Behind: Why the Uninsured Are Everyone's Problem
•
Paying the Piper: Health Care Purchasing Models (am only )
Promises Kept: Improving Quality & Safety in Health Care (am only)
Access, Delivery, and Cost: The Triple Play of Prescription Drugs
Between a Rock and a Hard Place-Bargaining Health Care Benefits
LUNCH 11:45 am -1 pm
Workshop Presenters
Maribeth Healey, Oregonians for Health Security
Dr. John Santa, OHSU Center for Evidence-based Policy
Ardis Belknap, Human Resource Manager, City of Springfield
Pat Boose, Labor Relations Director, Good Samaritan Health Systems
Nancy Clarke, Executive Director, Oregon Health Care, Quality Corporation
Mitch Greenlick, State Representative, Professor Emeritus, OHSU School of Medicine
Barbara Prowe, Executive Director, Oregon Coalition of Health Care Purchasers
Jean Thorne, Administrator, Public Employees' Benefit Board, State of Oregon
Jim Dameron, Administrator, Oregon Patient Safety Commission
Missy Dolan, Administrator - Oregon Prescription Drug Program
Diana Moffat, Attorney/Labor Relations Consultant, LGPI
Steve Pickle, Business Representative, IBT Local 305
LERA AWARD PRESENTATIONS 2:30 pm - 4:30 pm
Dessert & Beverages Served
REGISTRATION FEE: $140.00 (includes materials, meals, refreshments)
SEND CHECKS TO:
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For detailed brochure/questions contact David Stiteler:
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