Think Again •
EE
R
F
By Tim Nesbitt
BARGAIN COUNTER
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Westlund can’t win, but he
can spoil the race for governor
O
regon’s political pundits are
calling this a three-way race for
governor. If that’s the case, put Ben
Westlund on the bottom of your tri-
fecta ticket, because he’s a sure thing
to finish third.
Westlund has been getting a lot of
attention from the media for his de-
fection from the Republican Party
and his announcement that he will
run for governor as an independent.
But this is a two-way race be-
tween Democrat Ted Kulongoski
and Republican Ron Saxton. If
Westlund gets in, he’ll create a photo
finish between those two. But West-
lund himself won’t even be in the
picture.
I respect Ben Westlund. But he’s
no Jesse Ventura, the professional
wrestler who muscled his way to an
upset win of the Minnesota gover-
norship as the Reform Party candi-
date in 1998. Westlund doesn’t have
that kind of name recognition, nor
does he have even a minor party to
support him. And, as a Republican
who recently abandoned his party,
Westlund is not likely to pick up
many votes from that party’s rank
and file.
This means that Westlund will
have to compete for votes from unaf-
filiated voters and disaffected De-
mocrats, which is hardly a prescrip-
tion for success when you have a
polarizing candidate like Saxton in
the race.
Saxton is running to the far right
on issues of importance to most
union members, Democrats and in-
dependents who work for a living
and worry about their families’ well-
being. He opposes continuing the
voter-approved cost-of-living adjust-
ments to our minimum wage. He’d
leave workers to fend for themselves
with little or no help from govern-
ment, opposing limits on usurious
payday loans and questioning
K
whether there’s any role for govern-
ment “to deliver or pay for health
care.” And, for workers rattled by
recent attacks on retirement benefits
in the public and private sectors,
Saxton’s proposal for public employ-
ees won’t be reassuring: He’d fire all
of them if that’s what it takes to ter-
minate the pensions that the Oregon
Supreme Court ruled are protected
by the state constitution.
(Memo to public employees: Ku-
longoski cut Public Employees Re-
tirement System benefits, but fought
to keep a solid defined-benefit pen-
sion plan intact for new hires; West-
lund voted for the PERS cuts and for
even steeper cuts for new hires; and
Saxton wants to blow up the PERS
system for current employees and
new hires alike. There are real dif-
ferences among these candidates,
even on a grudge issue like PERS.)
Westlund can try to run between
Saxton and Kulongoski on working
family issues. But, on many of those
issues, he’ll be slogging over squishy
ground. What’s the point of defend-
ing cost-of-living adjustments to the
minimum wage, which Westlund
promised to do last session, when he
also backed the restaurant associa-
tion’s demand for a reduced mini-
mum wage for tipped workers?
That’s not the kind of principled
stand that voters want from an “inde-
pendent” candidate.
Westlund gets credit, as does Ku-
longoski, for opposing the artificial
spending limits endorsed by Saxton
that would create more budget crises
for our schools. But Kulongoski
comes to the race with bragging
rights for securing the revenue divi-
dends we’re now getting from a re-
bounding economy. This gives Ku-
longoski the resources to be the man
with a plan for improving our
schools, expanding college aid to
middle-class families and stabilizing
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PAGE 6
the Oregon Health Plan, which
should provide the edge he needs to
outflank Saxton…unless Westlund
gets in the way.
Westlund can run, but he can’t
win. Based on voter registration and
turnout patterns, the votes cast for
governor this fall will come almost
equally from Democrats (40 percent)
and Republicans (40 percent) with
the balance from unaffiliated and mi-
nor-party voters (20 percent). Sax-
ton and Kulongoski will win large
majorities of their parties’ rank and
file. So Westlund will have to build
his campaign on the voters who are
unaffiliated or disaffected, who tend
to wander all over the political track.
It will be difficult for Westlund to se-
cure the large majorities among
these voters that Saxton and Ku-
longski can deliver from their par-
ties’ registrants. And, even if he
could, there aren’t enough votes
there to make up the difference.
Remember Ross Perot’s impres-
sive showing in Oregon’s 1992 presi-
dential election? He got 24 percent
of the vote — a solid third place fin-
ish.
Westlund can’t win, but he can af-
fect the outcome of this race, more
likely by pulling votes from Kulon-
goski than from Saxton, if only be-
cause Republicans are more lock-
step loyal to their candidates.
If he runs, Westlund could end up
rewarding the extremists in his for-
mer party who want workers to live
with smaller paychecks, buy their
own health insurance and pay for
their own retirement benefits. That
would be an ironic legacy for a
politician who is campaigning
against “extreme partisanship.”
Tim Nesbitt is a former president
of the Oregon AFL-CIO.
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CRAFTSMAN LAWN mower, 6 spd, 12hp, w/rear
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JUNE 2, 2006