ju s t out ▼ January 3 , 1 007 ▼ 15
piece of their income. The good news of
he old lavender crystal ball saw the outline of things pretty clearly cant
protease
inhibitors has began to cut into that
a year ago, particularly for election day. It called the easy ones of revenue stream
will do so even more in
Clinton ’s victory and Dole as the Republican nominee, but also the 1997. Look for a and
lot of belt-tightening at com
munity
organizations.
less homophobic tone of the Republican Party and the surprise
emergence of Steve Forbes with more protest votes than Pat Buchanan.
Congress did not change substantively, and Jesse Helms was re-elected as C ongress
predicted.
year ago, even its most ardent promoters
at
the Human Rights Campaign would not
So I ventured deep into the closet to retrieve that dusty orb and, fortified
have predicted a vote—let alone a near
with a glass of holiday cheer and goodwill toward all, looked anxiously into
favorable one—on the Employment Non-Dis
the future. And let me tell you, it's scary.
crimination Act. The tally of 49 supportive sena
T
A
tors raises expectations that ENDA will pass the
upper chamber this year and move on to the
clinical therapy.
House, where the going will be tougher. Maybe.
A ppointments
The good news of the “Lazarus effect,” with
HRC has the fragile backing of the Leadership
ommissioner of the Food and Drug Admin people living longer and better lives with the new Conference on
istration: This might be Clinton’s most im HIV drugs, will continue. But the euphoria will be Civil Rights for
portant appointment for gay men and les leavened by the reality of new and continued ENDA and
bians. Retiring Commissioner David Kessler problems associated with the disease.
doesn’t want to
played a unique role during the past six years in
threaten that by
speeding up approval of HIV drugs. His succes- M oney
changing the
language of the
IDS groups have been united in Washing bill. Trans folks
ton, D.C., to push for federal action. That are left out, and
began to come apart over Ryan White re they don’t like
authorization and worsened in a scramble at the
it. They are
o.
end of the congressional session by some Title I back and better
cities to grab additional money intended for AIDS organized this
Drug Assistance Programs run by the states, which year, and may pursue new Labor and Human
pay for medications.
Resources chairman Sen. Jim Jeffords (R-Vt.) to
A number of reports will strengthen the case write more inclusive coverage into the version he
for ADAPs. In January, the National Institutes of introduces.
Health will
Robert Doman’s departure and a more prag
matic
approach on divisive social issues by the
issue guide-
'A ?
i>
Republican leadership should mean fewer anti
lines on
f'V
standards of
gay amendments to contend with in the House.
%
care that will
The fly in that ointment is the departure of openly
f r i ---------
solidify the
gay Republican Steve Gunderson, who acted as a
F Co 1
K:, u s a
staged use of
trip-wire on lesbian and gay issues, bringing them
combination
^
v
to Gingrich’s attention to defuse them before a
sor will continue to face that issue plus the emerg therapies. In
vote. That will be greatly missed.
March,
a
H
t/A
V
ing one of microbicides, topical agents that can
kill infectious diseases. Since their primary use is s t u d y
C ourts
sexual, this raises the specter of anal and oral sex, funded by
and the potential for controversy from the theo
on’t look for any resignations from the
Fcmndatfon
g W tO
cratic right. It could be a rocky ride.
Supreme Court this year—only a surprise
AIDS czar: Clinton interest in the subject
death will give Bill Clinton the chance to
continues to fade, but he seems unwilling to take d e l T h at
make another appointment.
the heat for folding the position into the Office of significantly
The legal struggle to lift the ban on gay men
the Secretary of Health and Human Services. more money
f
.
i • i
and lesbians openly serving in the military was
Look for another no-name bureaucrat with no is needed to
,
stalled when a 2nd Circuit appeals panel sent the
independent voice or standing to be named, even pay for these
Able case back to trial court. A favorable verdict
therapies.
S OtTIC
tually, to the position.
should be forthcoming
Surgeon general: One observer has suggested
early in the year, and a
that the post, vacant for the past two years, might same* time!
favorable appeals deci
remain so for four more. It’s possible, given the the medici-
sion later in the year.
administration’s penchant for avoiding contro nal miracle
The Supreme Court will
versy. But a more likely outcome is a bland is reducing
take the government’s
nominee once all other positions have been filled. demand for
appeal and schedule ar
White House gay liaison: The post has been some AIDS
guments for 1998.
vacant since summer, when Richard Socarides s e r v i c e s ,
If the fight for the
officially moved to the re-election campaign. He particularly for late-stage patients. Pressure is freedom to marry is a
may be back, or the title may be abolished as a growing to reprogram government funds, which war, then Hawaii is the
budgetary move—the odds are about 50-50. If the some organizations will fight. It could get bloody. Battle of Stalingrad. It
latter option, look for someone in Vice President
will be long and pain
Gore’s office to become the unofficial link to the
fully bloody, but at the
community, after all, our money and votes are
end there will be no
important in Democratic presidential primaries. M oney , P art II
doubt that the tide of the
he viatical settlement industry is going battle has turned. Vic
through a last hurrah, a flurry of activity tory becomes not a ques
AIDS T reatment
by middlemen to make their commissions tion of if, but of when and at what price. The
ook for increased talk of integrase inhibi
off of purchasing policies and attracting inves
Hawaii Supreme Court will signal the end of that
tors, a new family of HIV drugs that attacks tors still ignorant of the therapy breakthroughs. phase with its positive decision in late 1997.
the virus at a different point in its life cycle. Look for AIDS coverage to crash. That could
There will be symbolic losses as many states
Treatment activists will focus on the Glaxo spell trouble for gay publications dependent on pass mini-Defense of Marriage Acts refusing to
nucleoside analogue known as “1592,” now in viatical advertising for a big chunk of income. It recognize Hawaiian same-sex marriages. But the
initial clinical trials. Some believe it is a powerful might be softened by the recent spurt of con pace will slow as the public begins to look seri
successor to AZT and accuse the company of sumer advertising by pharmaceutical com ously at the idea of same-sex marriage and finds
delaying it to protect the existing cash cow.
panies trying to buy market share for their HIV less and less to fear from it. A big boost will come
The FDA should grant accelerated approval to drugs.
in the summer when the Episcopal Church, at its
two or possibly three additional HIV drugs during
You won’t hear much publicly about it, but triennial general convention, votes to perform
the year. But we still will not have a very detailed many AIDS and gay groups have come to count same-sex unions.
sense of how to combine and stage their use in on bequests from the AIDS dead for a signifi
C
A
è
:>•
Pressure is
reprogram
government
funds W/ilC/i
organizations
W ill fight.
It could get
bloody.
L
T
D
Another year,
another squint
into the old
crystal ball...
by Bob Roehr