just out ▼ Jan u ary 5, 1996 ▼ 9
Lavender
Predictions '9 6
by Bob Roehr
My predictions for last year of “benign neglect" of gay issues by the new
Republican Congress held true, gay-bashing was about the same as it was the
previous few years under Democratic control. The Ryan White CARE Act was
reauthorized with some fine tuning, and AIDS funding inched upward.
I goofed on saying Melinda Paras would not survive the year at the National Gay
and Lesbian Task Force and was half right on Roberta Achtenberg leaving the
Clinton administration—she left to run for mayor of San Francisco.
So, with a glass of eggnog and some trepidation, I took a squeegee to the old
lavender crystal ball and peered into 1996.
ELECTIONS
t’s a long time out to predict, but Bill Clinton
looks to be the odds-on favorite to win re-
election. It proves the adage “You can’t beat
someone with no one.” Look for Clinton to get about
the same number o f votes as last time. Two wild
cards are the economy— will it start to slide down­
hill?— and body bags from Bosnia and Haiti. Either
could sink him.
Steve M ichael’s quixotic challenge to Clinton
on AIDS in the Democratic primaries could cause a
lot more worries than White House politicos imag­
ine. The press isn’t going to have much to write
about this primary season; M ichael’s principled
stand could give him ink— and protest voters a place
to make a statement.
Bob Dole leads the Republican pack, and it is his
race to lose. There will be surprises in New Hamp­
shire and elsewhere, probably a kinder, gentler
Steve Forbes replacing the vitriolic Pat Buchanan as
the protest vote of choice for Republicans. But it
seems the only thing that could deny Dole the
nomination is his own health. His choice of a
running mate may be the difference between win­
ning and losing in November. If he chooses some­
one who can generate his own excitement— chiefly
Colin Powell— then he might be able to upset Clinton.
Ironically enough, a Dole presidency would
likely include the first openly gay Cabinet secre­
tary— retiring Rep. Steve Gunderson at either Agri­
culture or possibly Education.
I
epublicans will retain control o f the Senate,
picking up a few seats but not the 60 necessary
to close off filibusters. In North Carolina, Jesse
Helms will again face a tight race, and if the Demo­
crats again nominate Harvey Gantt, Helms will eke
out a tight win.
One of the most interesting races will be in
Massachusetts, where very pro-gay Democratic in­
R
cumbent John Kerry is being challenged by Repub­
lican William Weld, called by many the most pro­
gay governor in the nation. Too bad one of them
can’t be elected from another state, say North Caro­
lina.
Newt Gingrich will remain as
speaker of the House, as Republi­
cans pad their margin o f control by a
handful o f seats. That is due chiefly
to the number of Democrats retiring,
especially in the South, and the likely
pickup Republicans will make in
those open seats.
Barney Frank will be the only
openly gay legislator elected to the
105th Congress.
Assistance Programs for people without resources
could easily face demands totaling more than $1
billion for the year. And if research shows, as seems
likely, that these medications are beneficial for
people infected with HIV long before they suffer an
AIDS-defining infection, then the demand for AD AP
money could increase several-fold. The funding just
isn’t there.
The Senate will take up modest reform of the
Food and Drug Administration early in the year. Its
draft legislation has the support of most AIDS
activists. The House seems more intent upon push­
ing for radical reform that would rely less upon
government regulation and more upon market forces.
Look for the Senate to win most of its points.
eauthorization of the National Institutes of
Health may prove to be a more contentious
matter, with AIDS, genetic research, and a replay of
battles over fetal-tissue research at its center. The
Office of AIDS Research was created as an “insti­
tute without walls” to coordinate AIDS research
within the separate entities of the NIH. It has had
mixed success, in large part because of the au­
tonomy o f institute directors.
R
T
The Levine Group is making the first evaluation
of all NIH-sponsored AIDS research. Its report is
due out in late January. It is likely to show deficien­
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he military policy of “don’t ask, don’t tell” is
on appeal in two different federal circuit
courts. The decision on Thomasson vs. Perry is
expected to come out o f the 4th U.S.
Circuit Court o f Appeals in Richmond,
Va., in late winter. There is a reasonable
chance it will be favorable.
The second case. Able vs. Perry, being
decided in New York, was favorable to
lesbians and gay men in the first round. That
is likely to be sustained by the three-member
panel of the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Ap­
peals, which heard the case in December.
The full circuit will probably not accept an
appeal.
That sets up the likelihood of a spring
appeal to the Supreme Court. If both circuits
rule in favor of allowing gay men and lesbi­
ans to serve openly, the court may surprise
people by declining to hear the appeals. It
would be forced to take the appeals if the
courts differ.
Oral arguments would likely be sched­
uled for the fall. That would put the issue in
the public spotlight just before Election Day.
It is not what the Clinton administration
wants, as the president’s flip-flops on the
issue have dismayed both conservative op­
ponents and sexual minority supporters.
ncremental gains will continue to be
made in state courts in terms of dism an­
tling sodomy statutes and securing parental
and partnership rights for lesbians and gay
men. Progress will be made on the Hawaii
gay marriage case, though final resolution
at the state level will not come until 1997.
Activists will use the time to educate the public and
build alliances for the inevitable battles that will
follow.
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he U.S. Supreme Court will return a ver­
dict favorable to lesbians and gay men on
the Colorado Amendment 2 case. But the
opinions are likely to be divided and leave muddy
the issue of initiative challenges to rights of gay men
and lesbians. The earlier the decision comes down,
the more positive it is likely to be for the community
and the more it is likely to impact other cases
working their way through the system.
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THE COURTS
Bill Clinton looks to
be the odds-on
favorite to win
re-election.
It proves the adage
You can’t beat
someone with
no one. ”
Look for
Clinton to
get about the
same
number
of votes as
last time.
AIDS
he predominate action of 1995
was moving promising lab
research through trials and
regulatory approval.
This year will see the usual num-
ber o f research “breakthrough” an­
nouncements— some will pan out in
the long run and others won’t. Most
o f the news from the labs will take
several more years to move from
discovery to clinical use.
The average person with AIDS
comes front and center this year,
with widespread availability of newly
approved drugs such as 3TC and
protease inhibitors, which now be­
come part o f the mix of front-line
treatment for AIDS.
Money will become the key is­
sue. These expensive new medications will push
many people with AIDS with private health insur­
ance up to their drug and/or policy caps. AIDS Drug
cies in many areas, parallel to those reported in 1995
at the National Cancer Institute, which has the
largest single AIDS-research budget at NIH. That
could stimulate public debate on whether to retain
the current “institute without walls” character of
OAR or consolidate those programs under a sepa­
rate, newly created Institute of AIDS.
The Clinton White House will continue to be a
virtual nonplayer in these debates.
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