Friday, May 27, 2022
CapitalPress.com 3
Fuel price outlook depends on what world economy does
By MATEUSZ PERKOWSKI
Capital Press
A serious global economic
downturn would cause oil prices
to plunge, but that’s not the only
way fuel expenses could decrease,
experts say.
Oil prices would also drop if
the Ukrainian conflict is resolved,
or if federal energy regulations are
relaxed, though those possibilities
hardly appear imminent, experts say.
If oil prices do fall because of an
economic slump, which some econ-
omists fear is looming, the impacts
on farm profits would be unpredict-
able and likely vary by crop sector.
“At the end of the day, I don’t
think a recession is going to help
anybody,” said Nolan Schrock,
energy division manager at the Pra-
tum Co-op, an Oregon-based farm
supplier. “I don’t think a recession is
something to hope for.”
Low inventories may prevent
wheat and other commodity crop
prices from decreasing as steeply as
fuel prices, he said.
However, a recession would
Orlin Wagner/Associated Press File
Cattle rancher Randy Cree adds diesel fuel to a tractor at his Kansas farm.
severely impact crops that are highly
dependent on the consumer market,
such as the grass seed that’s ubiqui-
tous in Oregon’s Willamette Valley,
Schrock said.
“It’s probably going to hurt them
more,” he said.
The price of delivered diesel
for on-farm use has shot up from
roughly $2.25 per gallon to $4.35
Washington state
vet: Keep birds
home until flu passes
By DON JENKINS
Capital Press
Washington State Veteri-
narian Amber Itle asked bird
owners May 19 to not show
at fairs and exhibitions or
go to live poultry markets
while avian influenza circu-
lates in the state.
The state agriculture
department has not invoked
its emergency powers to
contain diseases. Itle said
she hoped bird owners will
voluntarily comply.
“It would be a total
nightmare if we had avian
influenza at a market or
exhibition,” she said at a
press conference. “You start
to think about the numbers
of people that are there and
how many people would be
impacted.”
The agriculture depart-
ment has confirmed bird
flu in nine non-commer-
cial flocks in seven counties
since May 5. Highly patho-
genic avian influenza was
detected in the Northwest
late in a U.S. outbreak that
has claimed almost 38 mil-
lion domestic birds.
The outbreak continues
coast-to-coast. New Jersey
was the 35th state to have a
confirmed case. Oregon and
Washington were 33rd and
34th. The first case was in
a commercial turkey flock
in Indiana in early February.
The virus has not been
detected in a Washington
commercial farm.
“Everybody has been
leaning in really hard to
try to prevent commercial
introduction because as you
can well imagine that would
be devastating to the indus-
try,” state agriculture depart-
ment veterinarian Dana
Dobbs said.
A 2014-15 outbreak
of bird flu killed 50 mil-
lion poultry. The death toll
mounted as the virus was
spread among commer-
cial poultry barns in the
Midwest.
Animal health officials
say wild birds are having a
greater role in spreading the
disease this year. Migratory
waterfowl shed the virus,
but are often not sickened
by it. This year, more wild
species are being infected
and more are dying.
“Part of the reason that
it’s so bad is that we have
so many birds that are vul-
nerable,” Itle said. “And so
we have more opportunity
for these birds to spread it
between them.”
The Washington Depart-
ment of Fish and Wild-
life has documented highly
pathogenic avian influenza
in 12 wild birds.
Itle said backyard flock
owners should keep their
birds from coming into con-
tact with wild birds for at
least several more weeks.
“As long as we’re seeing
it circulate in the waterfowl
and in the wild birds in our
state, we can’t feel 100%
safe,” she said.
“What you want to do is
USDA ARS
Veterinarians are urging
farmers to keep their poul-
try away from wild birds.
wait for summer, let things
dry out, let things warm up,
let that virus die,” Itle said.
“It’s not a very tough virus,
but it can persist in a cool,
wet environment, which,
unfortunately, we’re seeing
this spring.”
Bird flu has been found
in non-commercial flocks in
Clallam, Okanogan, Pacific,
Pierce, Thurston, Spokane
and Whatcom counties.
per gallon in the past year, demon-
strating the value of investing in
long-term contracts when prices are
low, Schrock said.
“It’s not a bad risk management
tool,” he said.
Oil prices had been rising before
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but
that war caused a further spike in the
costs of fuel and fertilizer, experts
say. Demand for both crops and
farm inputs surged as the global
economy rebounded with the easing
of pandemic-related restrictions.
The price of oil would be easy to
predict if an analyst could foresee
geopolitical events, but of course
that’s impossible, said Jim Wil-
liams, president of WTRG Eco-
nomics, which analyzes energy
markets.
Russian oil production has
declined due to widespread eco-
nomic sanctions, since roughly half
of that country’s output is exported,
Williams said. “Why produce it if
nobody is going to buy it?”
Shipping companies are reluc-
tant to transport Russian oil to coun-
tries that haven’t imposed sanctions,
since they may change their mind at
any point, he said. “If I take that Rus-
sian crude, will I be able to unload it
someplace?”
Though geopolitical turmoil
is unpredictable, Williams said it
doesn’t seem likely that Russia will
suddenly end hostilities — and even
if it did, economic sanctions may not
be lifted immediately.
“It’s been a very expensive war
for Russia but I don’t see it stop-
ping,” he said.
More restrictive federal energy
policies have also driven up the price
of oil and refined fuels, though opin-
ions among experts vary as to the
degree of impact.
Williams said the price hike was
initially caused by stronger demand
from the economic recovery and
then aggravated by Russia’s inva-
sion of Ukraine.
The Biden administration’s
“slow-walking” of domestic drill-
ing permits has also inflated prices,
though only moderately compared
to the other factors, he said.
“They’ve increased the regula-
tion. The boxes you have to check to
drill a well,” Williams said.
The Biden administration has
been reluctant to loosen drilling
restrictions because reducing the
U.S. economy’s reliance on oil is
meant to cut carbon emissions and
fight climate change, he said.
“It’s certainly a longer-term goal
of the Democrat Party,” Williams
said.
Quarantine established after bird
flu detected in Willamette Valley
By GEORGE PLAVEN
Capital Press
EUGENE, Ore. — Part
of Lane County in Oregon’s
southern Willamette Val-
ley is under quarantine after
state agriculture officials con-
firmed a second case of the
highly contagious avian influ-
enza in a backyard poultry
flock on May 17.
The quarantine extends
roughly 20 miles from
Eugene and Springfield north
along Interstate 5 to Harris-
burg and the Coburg Hills,
according to a map provided
by the Oregon Department of
Agriculture.
Unless
otherwise
exempted, no live or dead
birds, poultry products or
poultry waste can leave the
area until the department
ensures there are no more
cases of bird flu to avoid
spreading the disease.
A backyard poultry flock
in Linn County also tested
positive for bird flu on May
6. ODA has identified the
area from Albany south to
near Corvallis and Lebanon
as an “outbreak area,” though
it has not been placed under
quarantine.
Meanwhile, the Oregon
Department of Fish and Wild-
life confirmed “several” Can-
ada goose goslings recently
tested positive for avian flu at
Alton Baker Park in Eugene,
as well as a red-tailed hawk
and osprey collected from
Dorena Reservoir near Cot-
tage Grove. They are the first
cases of wild birds infected in
Oregon.
The latest strain of bird flu
spreading across the U.S. —
known as H5N1 — was first
detected in Oregon on May 6
in a backyard poultry flock in
Linn County. Prior to that, the
last confirmed case was during
the 2015 H5N2 outbreak.
Additional cases of bird flu
have been reported in wild and
domestic birds in Washington
and Idaho.
Dr. Ryan Scholz, state vet-
erinarian for the state Depart-
ment of Agriculture, said they
knew bird flu was coming after
a bald eagle in British Colum-
bia tested positive in March.
The region is part of the Pacific
Flyway, a major north-south
route for migrating birds that
extends from Alaska to Pata-
gonia in South America.
“Since that detection, we
have been hard at work com-
municating with our commer-
cial poultry producers, veteri-
narians and the public on how
they can protect their flocks,”
Scholz said, emphasizing the
importance of keeping poultry
separated from wild birds and
increasing biosecurity.