Friday, March 4, 2022
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Milk production down from last year
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
At 19.05 billion pounds,
U.S. milk production in Jan-
uary was down a dramatic
1.6% year over year on 82,00
fewer cows and a decline of
15 pounds per cow, according
to USDA National Agricul-
tural Statistics Service.
Milk production was down
in 19 of the 24 states with the
largest production.
Milk production in New
Mexico showed the largest
decline, down 12.1% from
January 2021 on 42,000
fewer cattle.
The
state’s
production
per cow, how-
ever, was up
10 pounds.
Wa s h i n g -
ton also saw a large decline in
milk production, down 7.1%
on 17,000 fewer cows and a
20-pound decline in produc-
tion per cow.
On the plus side, South
Dakota’s milk production
increased 18.3% with 28,000
additional cows despite a per-
cow decline of 20 pounds.
The USDA report also
showed a 1.3% increase in
milk production in 2021 year
over year. The number of
cows increased 56,000 head
year over year in 2021, and
per-cow production was up
171 pounds.
Nationwide, the indus-
try lost 1,794 licensed dairy
herds in 2021 — a 5.7% drop
from 2020. Declines in the
number of dairies were seen
in 41 states, and nine others
held steady.
The biggest declines were
in Wisconsin, down 340 dair-
ies; Pennsylvania, down 230
dairies; New York, down 220;
and Washington, down 145
dairies.
While year-over-year cow
numbers were down 9,000
head in Washington and 8,000
in Pennsylvania, they were
up 15,000 in Wisconsin and
1,000 in New York.
Over the past 10 years,
the number of licensed dairy
herds declined by 39.5%,
from 49,331 herds in 2012 to
29,858 in 2021. During the
same period, the number of
milk cows increased 2%, milk
produced per cow increased
10% and overall milk produc-
tion increased 13%.
Dairy Checkoff partners with Mayo Clinic
Capital Press
The Dairy Checkoff has entered into
a fi ve-year collaboration with the Mayo
Clinic to undertake research on public
health and dairy’s benefi ts.
The memorandum of understand-
ing with Mayo includes Dairy Manage-
ment Inc., National Dairy Council and the
Innovation Center for U.S. Dairy.
“This is a milestone moment for
dairy farmers who made this possible
through their century-long commitment
to research and dairy nutrition,” Barbara
O’Brien, Dairy Management Inc. CEO,
said in a press release.
“This is a powerful collaboration
that shows how the Dairy Checkoff is
expanding our scientifi c network to bring
a modernized complement to our leg-
acy and move us further into the future,”
she said.
The collaboration will be incorporated
across Mayo Clinic’s campuses in Roch-
ester, Minn., Scottsdale and Phoenix,
Ariz., and Jacksonville, Fla.
Teams comprised of National Dairy
Council scientists and registered dieti-
tians, Mayo Clinic physicians and health
professionals as well as Innovation Cen-
ter for U.S. Dairy experts will lead initia-
tives focused on three areas:
• Research to discover how dairy
foods, particularly whole milk dairy,
impacts cardiovascular health and meta-
bolic conditions. Other potential research
areas include dairy’s role in sleep, diges-
tive health and immunity.
Dairy West
The Mayo Clinic and the Dairy Checkoff will work together on research about the
impact of milk on human health.
• Communicating dairy’s body of
evidence, new research and insights
with the scientifi c community, health
and
wellness
professionals
and
consumers.
• Exploring dairy’s role through digi-
tal platforms to propel people into a new
way of precisely managing their wellness.
In addition, co-created content will
help debunk dairy myths and help con-
sumers maintain confi dence in dairy
foods, farms and businesses.
“This collaboration illustrates the
checkoff ’s consumer-fi rst focus and our
commitment to leading with credible sci-
ence,” said Marilyn Hershey, a Pennsyl-
vania dairy farmer and chair of Dairy
Management Inc.
For information about the Dairy check-
off , visit: www.usdairy.com.
Milk output down 1.6%
By LEE MIELKE
For the Capital Press
DAIRY
MARKETS
U
.S. milk production
dropped for the third
month in a row from a
year ago.
The Agriculture Depart-
ment’s latest Milk Production
report shows preliminary Jan-
uary output at 19.05 billion
pounds, down 1.6% from Jan-
uary 2021, the steepest year
over year decline since March
2004, when there was a short-
age of recombinant bovine
somatotropin, according to
Dairy and Food Market Ana-
lyst editor Matt Gould in the
Feb. 28 “Dairy Radio Now”
broadcast.
Output in the top 24 pro-
ducing states totaled 18.2 bil-
lion pounds, down 1.4%.
Revisions lowered the original
Lee
Mielke
50-State December estimate
by 35 million pounds, now
put at 18.8 billion pounds,
down 0.3% from a year ago.
January cow numbers
totaled 9.368 million, down
5,000 from December, the
eighth consecutive month they
were down from the previ-
ous month, and 82,000 head
below a year ago.
The December count was
revised 2,000 head lower. The
milking herd has dropped
139,000 head from its peak in
May 2021.
Output per cow aver-
aged 2,034 pounds, down 15
pounds, or 0.7%, from 2021.
California’s output totaled
3.5 billion pounds, down
68 million pounds, or 1.9%,
from a year ago, thanks to a
40-pound drop per cow. Cow
numbers were unchanged.
Wisconsin output totaled
2.7 billion pounds, down 8
million, or 0.3%. Cow num-
bers were up 11,000, but out-
put per cow was down 25
pounds.
Idaho was up 0.6% on
4,000 more cows. Output per
cow was unchanged.
Michigan was down 3.5%
on 10,000 fewer cows and a
30-pound drop per cow. Min-
nesota was down 1.0% on
a 25-pound drop per cow,
though cow numbers were up
1,000. New Mexico output
plunged 12.1% on a drop of
42,000 cows, although output
per cow was up 10 pounds.
ee
fr
High input costs temper
strong milk prices
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
While the futures market is bullish for milk
prices and keeping up with grain prices, non-feed
costs are likely to limit profi tability on dairy farms
in the coming year, an economist says.
Futures prices on Class III milk for the next 12
months are about $22 per hundredweight, and the
margin between milk prices and feed costs is pro-
jected at more than $11.50 a hundredweight.
Milk and feed prices are the two biggest factors
in driving profi tability. And on that basis, it looks
like margins are going to be favorable, said Andy
Novakovic, professor of agricultural economics
emeritus at Cornell University.
“But the big thing this year that’s diff erent from
our common everyday assumption is that non-
feed factors are moving also,” he said in the latest
“Dairy Livestream” webcast.
Those always move a little but generally not
enough to drive the profi tability factor. But fertil-
izer and other input costs and interest rates on oper-
ating debt and capital improvements are all more
expensive than they used to be, he said.
“So to me, that’s a little bit harder to predict …
we don’t have forward markets on all that stuff .
And so to me, that could be a real restraint,” he said.
It’s probably going to be one of those years
where guys who grow all or a big chunk of their
feed are going to be in better shape than guys who
purchase feed. But it will depend on what happens
with all the crazy weather that’s probably associ-
ated with climate change, he said.
“Those are pretty big factors that are going to
come into play here as well,” he said.
As for milk production, dairy producers will
have a tendency to focus fi rst on the milk price and
then take a look at how badly costs are eating up
that milk price, said Mark Stephenson, director of
the Center for Dairy Profi tability at the University
of Wisconsin.
“It’s signifi cant this year, but that milk price is
alluring. It’s going to be something you want to
grab as much of as you can,” he said.
That said, infl ation and non-feed cost infl ation
is real, he said.
He thinks margins will be positive, depending
on the amount of feed farmers are growing them-
selves. But even the inputs for growing feed are
very high this year, he said.
“We’ll have to see how it plays out, but I think
we’re going to produce more milk,” he said.
Phil Plourd, president of Blimling and Associ-
ates, said he’s hearing credible talk of cost of pro-
duction at about $21 per hundredweight for produc-
ers in the West buying feed. That’s a big number,
but milk prices look like they’re going to be $22 to
$23 per hundredweight, he said.
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