Friday, April 16, 2021
CapitalPress.com 11
Dairy/Livestock
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Meat exports lower but outlook strong
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
February exports of U.S.
beef and pork remained
below the rapid pace set in
early 2020 but were consis-
tent with projections by the
U.S. Meat Export Federation.
Despite the year-over-
year decline, the federation
expects 2021 beef exports to
increase substantially, while
pork exports are projected
to narrowly surpass the 2020
record.
Beef exports in February
totaled 103,493 metric tons
at a value of $669.5 million.
Those exports were down
8% in volume year over year
and 2% in value, due mainly
to a decline in variety meat
exports.
Through February, beef
exports year to date were
down 5% in volume and 2%
in value from a year earlier.
Beef exports to South
Korea are off to a strong start
U.S. meat exports January through February 2021
Quantity (metric tons)
Item*
2020
2021
Beef
219,395
208,540
Pork
546,659
1,435
Lamb & mutton
Value (thousands of dollars)
% change
2020
2021
% change
-5
1,353,619
1,322,532
-2
487,896
-11
1,465,334
1,272,139
-13
2,179
52
3,436
2,790
-19
*All items include variety meats
in 2021, up 9% in volume
and 10% in value. In addi-
tion, demand for U.S. beef
continues to grow in China,
capitalizing on access gains
achieved in the U.S.-China
Phase One agreement, the
federation reported.
Exports to China in Janu-
ary and February, at 16,982
metric tons, were up 1,072%
in volume and, at $124.1
million, were up 1,097% in
value from the same period
in 2020.
“With Phase One mak-
ing beef from a much larger
percentage of U.S. cattle eli-
Source: USDA data compiled by U.S. Meat Export Federation
gible for China, USMEF
expect China to move into
the top fi ve destinations for
U.S. beef exports in 2021,”
Joe Schuele, the federation’s
vice president of communi-
cations, said.
“In future years, China
will likely join Japan and
South Korea in the top tier
of beef export markets,” he
said.
On the pork side, Febru-
ary exports were down 12%
from a year earlier at 239,240
metric tons and down 13% in
value to $629.4 million.
However, February pork
exports set records in the
Dominican Republic, Gua-
temala, El Salvador and
Costa Rica and contributed
to a 37.7% increase in vol-
ume and a 33.9% increase
in value of exports to Cen-
tral America in February.
Pork exports were also very
strong to the Philippines and
Colombia.
As anticipated, February
pork exports to China trended
lower than the enormous vol-
umes shipped in 2020, down
28.2% in volume and 35.6%
in value year over year. But
the region continues to be the
largest destination for U.S.
pork.
While down from 2020,
pork exports to the region in
2021 will be the second larg-
est on record, Schuele said,
“Phase One has helped
ensure that more U.S. pro-
cessing plants are eligible
to export to China, and with
fewer product restrictions,”
he said.
U.S. lamb exports in Feb-
ruary increased 142% in vol-
ume year over year to 1,152
metric tons and 19% in
value to $1.6 million. Those
increases were fueled by
larger variety meat shipments
to Mexico, Canada and Hong
Kong.
“While February exports
were in line with expecta-
tions, the results don’t fully
refl ect global demand for U.S.
red meat,” Dan Halstrom,
USMEF president and CEO,
said in a press release accom-
panying the data.
“Logistical
challenges,
including congestion at some
U.S. ports, are still a signifi cant
headwind and tight labor sup-
plies at the plant level continue
to impact export volumes for
certain products — including
some variety meat items and
labor-intensive muscle cuts,”
he said.
The fl ow of exports
through U.S. ports is showing
some gradual improvement
as COVID-impacted crews
move closer to full strength,
but they remains a serious con-
cern for the U.S. agricultural
sector, he said.
Export
demand
has
remained solid despite logisti-
cal challenges and other pan-
demic-related obstacles. Con-
tinued international demand,
along with robust domes-
tic business, contributed to
stronger cutout values in the
fi rst quarter, which were up
an average of 27% year-over-
year for pork and 4% for
Choice beef, the federation
reported.
Powder and whey
Shipping delays put drag on dairy exports
bolster dairy exports
U.S. dairy exports January – February 2021
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
U.S.
dairy
exports
climbed 7% in value and
15% in volume year over
year in February, despite one
fewer day and U.S. suppliers
still facing shipping delays.
The growth was driven
primarily by a resurgence
in nonfat dry milk and skim
milk powder to Mexico and
Southeast Asia and whey
demand in China, accord-
ing to the U.S. Dairy Export
Council.
U.S. suppliers shipped
178,090 metric tons of dairy
products on a milk-solids
equivalent in February val-
ued at $565.5 million.
Analysts with the export
council were surprised
by the increase in pow-
der exports, expecting ship-
ping delays would continue
to harm exports. But pow-
der shipments grew sub-
stantially in February, up
31.4% year over year to
71,548 metric tons — with
a 38% increase to Southeast
Asia and a 30% increase to
Mexico.
February’s
robust
exports, anecdotal reports
that product in inventory
is sold and the gain in last
week’s Global Dairy Trade
suggest strong international
demand for skim milk pow-
der, the analysts said.
“Looking ahead, this sug-
gests that if U.S. exporters
can secure booking with a
carrier, there will be oppor-
tunities to grow exports,”
they said.
Whey exports are another
bright spot. They climbed
29% in February year over
year to 51,243 metric tons
— with a 159% increase to
China.
“Overall, both increased
domestic demand for dairy
products raising domes-
tic milk prices and ongoing
eff orts to rebuild the swine
herd has led China to dra-
matically increase whey
exports,” the analysts said.
“The U.S. continues to
be a key benefi ciary of this
demand despite the sup-
ply-chain constraints in
moving product off the West
Coast,” they said.
While cheese exports are
lagging 2020 levels, there is
some optimism in the Feb-
ruary numbers. U.S. cheese
exports were the highest in
seven months.
Big gains were made
in the Middle East, North
Africa, Japan, China and
South Korea, helping to
mitigate an 11% decline to
Mexico, the top U.S. market.
More competitive U.S.
cheese pricing since Decem-
ber and progress in keeping
COVID-19 in check in some
key markets are creating
a more optimistic outlook
for U.S. cheese exports, the
analysts said.
“But U.S. shipping issues
and continued COVID-19
uncertainty remain strong
headwinds to a full cheese
rebound,” they said.
As for exports to Mexico,
February marked the sixth
consecutive month of year-
over-year decreases in U.S.
cheese exports, but it was
the largest export volume
since August 2020.
The lower exports to
Mexico are primarily a result
of weak demand caused by
the COVID-19 pandemic,
said William Loux, the
council’s director of global
trade analysis.
“Mexico’s
economy
was in a recession entering
2020, and the COVID-19
pandemic only exacerbated
the economic situation,” he
said.
According to Mexico’s
National Institute of Statis-
tics, Geography and Infor-
matics, the economically
active population in Mex-
ico dropped by 10 million in
the second quarter of 2020,
he said.
While U.S. exports of
milk powders and dry whey
products surged in Febru-
ary, other dairy commod-
ities didn’t fare as well.
And they all continue to
face headwinds in getting to
overseas ports.
“U.S. dairy exports, like
many other U.S. agricul-
tural products, are delayed
leaving the United States as
a result of logjams at U.S.
and international ports,”
said William Loux, direc-
tor of global trade analysis
for the U.S. Dairy Export
Council.
There are several factors
contributing to the delays,
he said.
“First is that consumer
demand for goods is very
high, particularly in the
United States,” he said.
During the pandemic,
people aren’t able to go
Product
NDM/SMP
(Metric Tons)
2020
2021
% change
124,014
134,452
8.4
Dry whey products
80,924
98,591
21.8
Cheese
58,907
55,408
-5.9
Lactose
64,814
51,206
-21.0
WMP
5,602
5,897
5.3
Butterfat
3,569
7,065
98.0
MPC
7,028
5,794
-17.6
Infant formula
5,449
4,226
-22.4
Evap/Cond Milk
2,082
1,660
-20.3
556
406
-27.0
18,026
21,956
21.8
Total volume* (metric tons)
325,308
338,977
4.2
Total value (million dollars)
1,083.8
1,071.0
-1.2
Casein
Milk/cream (liters)
*milk solids equivalent
Source: U.S. Dairy Export Council and U.S. Census Bureau
out and spend money on
services as easily. So they
spend more money on
goods, which is driving up
international freight rates
from Asia to North Amer-
ica, he said.
“Thus, it is highly prof-
itable for container compa-
nies to sail from Asia to the
United States with expen-
sive consumer goods, but
it’s not as profi table for
those companies to run
agricultural commodities
from the U.S. back to Asia,”
he said.
As a result, rather than
wait for U.S. export prod-
uct to be loaded, container
companies opted to run
back empties to Asia, he
said.
“This has left U.S. prod-
uct stuck at the port and
exacerbated other underly-
ing issues, such as shipping
companies reducing lines
pre-pandemic, containers
being in short supply glob-
ally and labor and equip-
ment shortages at a number
of ports,” he said.
“This isn’t to say that
product isn’t moving or
that it’s unsolvable, but the
delays are a headwind on
dairy exports,” he said.
S219915-1