Friday, February 26, 2021
CapitalPress.com 7
Labor issues challenge dairies
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
Capital Press File
Dust flies from a bale of alfalfa as it’s picked up south of
Quincy, Wash. Alfalfa acreage is shrinking in some west-
ern states.
Fundamentals are
supportive of alfalfa prices
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
While no one knows what
milk markets will do this
year, other fundamentals are
supportive for alfalfa prices
in 2021.
While alfalfa acres were
down 3% in the U.S. in 2020
compared with the 10-year
average, there have been
some big declines in west-
ern states over time, Josh
Callen, owner of The Hoyt
Report, said during the Idaho
Hay and Forage Association
annual conference.
Alfalfa acres in 2020 were
down 29% in New Mex-
ico from the 10-year aver-
age and 22% in Nevada.
Acreage in California was
down 37%, and that’s been
kind of a steady trend,
he said.
“It just goes to show that
even though a lot of dairies
have cut alfalfa out of their
ration … California is going
to continue to be reliant on its
neighbors, mainly Oregon,
Idaho, Utah, Arizona for its
alfalfa needs,” he said.
Almond acres continue
to replace alfalfa acres in
California, with a steady
investment in trees. There’s
a higher upfront cost, but
almonds take less labor and
less water than alfalfa, he
said.
There was a pretty steep
drop-off in alfalfa acres in
California in 2020, and it’s
going to continue in 2021, he
said.
While Dec. 1 hay stocks
were down 6% in western
states, they were up 21% in
California. There’s really
good demand out of Califor-
nia, he said.
“They’re buying,” he
said.
The water issue is also
going to be a little iffy for
California this year, given
dry conditions. It will prob-
ably be OK, but the question
is what the dry conditions
mean for the Colorado River
in the longer term, he said.
The price of other pro-
teins is likely to be a big fac-
tor in alfalfa market in 2021,
he said.
“The big thing going
on right now is just overall
strength in general commod-
ity prices, what’s that going
to do for alfalfa,” he said.
Rolled corn prices went
on a tear beginning in
August, going from $175
a ton to $250 with some of
the highest prices seen since
2013 and 2014. Alfalfa and
corn prices tend to follow
each other fairly closely, he
said.
First-crop alfalfa should
have pretty good demand,
depending on milk prices,
he said.
“You could see some
more alfalfa being fed. That
could also support it as well.
Higher protein prices could
make alfalfa more attrac-
tive,” he said.
Alfalfa acreage is going
to be a little mixed in 2021.
The trend toward almond
trees in California is likely
to continue, but there’ll be
more alfalfa acres planted
to wheat. And some alfalfa
acres could also be replaced
with rolled corn and corn
silage, he said.
“It’s kind of hard to
gauge that dairy situation.
Right now, it looks like there
could be some more alfalfa
being fed,” he said.
Changing overtime regulations in
some states and increases in minimum
wages are giving dairies a run for their
money.
“All of these changes are happening
when farms struggle to find employ-
ees,” said Rich Stup, an agricultural
workforce specialist with Cornell Uni-
versity Cooperative Extension.
“Some places can still draw from
a local labor pool, but it’s hard when
communities are increasingly discon-
nected from farms and don’t view
farms as viable employers,” he said
during a recent “DairyLivestream”
podcast.
Immigration into the U.S. has
dropped from its peak in the 1990s
and early 2000s due to tighter border
control, more aggressive enforcement
and demographic factors in Mexico’s
developing economy, he said.
“All of these factors are combin-
ing to make farmers rethink labor strat-
egies, including adopting an array of
technologies to make each worker
more productive and, in some cases,
to reduce the need for employees alto-
gether,” he said.
In his opinion, the future for dairy
employment is high tech, high produc-
tivity, high skill and higher-paying jobs,
he said.
It’s definitely becoming a challenge,
said Frank Cardoza, a dairy consul-
tant with DairyWorks and manager of a
dairy in California’s Central Valley.
Carol Ryan Dumas/Capital Press File
Employee Juan Cortez prepares
cows for milking at Knott Run
Dairy in Buhl, Idaho. Minimum
wage increases and overtime pay
are among the many worries for
dairy operators.
Every year, dairy farmers have to
decide what changes they’re going to
make to be successful, he said.
“For sure, we’ve looked at differ-
ent options and tried different options
as far as hiring more people and reduc-
ing hours,” he said.
The dairy he manages is constantly
working on how to bring in technol-
ogy and create better jobs to encourage
young people to come in and still have
people who want to work the physical
jobs required on dairies, he said.
Research has found labor costs and
labor efficiency are the single most
highly correlated factor with dairy
farm profitability, said Chris Wolf, a
professor of agricultural economics at
Cornell University.
Human resource management is
also a primary risk for dairy farms; the
cows have to be milked at least twice a
day, he said.
So having healthy, available and
affordable workers is increasingly
important in having a plan to deal with
that, he said.
One of the topics in the news right
now is the potential for a national min-
imum wage increase. If that wage is
uniform across the country, it’s going
to have a much bigger effect in some
areas than others, and rural areas are
where it might have a bigger effect, he
said.
From an economist’s perspective,
that brings worry over things like wage
compression. Bringing up the wage for
lower-paid workers potentially results
in small differences in pay across work-
ers in a firm even though there might
be large differences in responsibilities,
skills and qualifications, he said.
“New employees can wind up mak-
ing more than existing or longer-term
employees, and that can lead to loss
of motivation and friction in the work-
place,” he said.
With any regulation, it’s important
to allow flexibility so farmers can inno-
vate, he said.
“What we’re looking for here, hope-
fully, is a set of standards rather than
mandating methods … which might
advantage some farms more than oth-
ers,” he said.
Oregon rancher named NCBA regional vice president
By GEORGE PLAVEN
Capital Press
IONE, Ore. — Mem-
bers of the National Cat-
tlemen’s Beef Association
elected Eastern Oregon
rancher Skye Krebs to
serve as regional vice pres-
ident for policy during the
organization’s virtual Win-
ter Business Meeting on
Feb. 4.
Krebs, of Ione, Ore., will
represent Region V, which
includes Oregon, Washing-
ton, Idaho, Montana, Wyo-
ming and Colorado.
“After serving on the
P u b -
lic Lands
C o u n -
cil execu-
tive board
for many
years,
I
Skye Krebs have come
to
know
several of the affiliated
state executives, officers
and producers,” Krebs said.
“I feel like I can hit the
ground running and I have
a bit of fuel left in my tank
to serve the beef industry.
I’m excited to get started.”
Based in Denver and
Washington, D.C., the
NCBA is the marketing
and trade association for
U.S. cattle ranchers, pro-
moting research and prod-
uct development funded
by the industry’s Beef
Checkoff.
NCBA regional vice
presidents serve three-
year terms, and play a
critical role in coordinat-
ing member activities and
communications.
Krebs’ family has been
ranching in Eastern Oregon
for more than 100 years. He
and his wife, Penny, own
and operate Krebs Sheep
Company in Ione, where
they raise both sheep and
cattle.
Outside his ranching
business, Krebs is a mem-
ber of the Oregon Cattle-
men’s Association, where
he currently serves as
the Public Lands Coun-
cil endowment protector
chairman. He also serves
as the Wallowa County
Animal Damage Con-
trol District secretary and
is involved in the Ore-
gon Sheep Growers Asso-
ciation and Alpha Gamma
Rho Alumni Board.
Krebs was born and
raised in Ione, and earned
his bachelor’s degree in
general agriculture from
Oregon State University.
Most alfalfa markets
recovered from pandemic
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
A lot of western alfalfa
markets saw a $20 to $30 per
ton decline year over year in
the spring of 2020 due to pan-
demic-related lockdowns.
“The deep swings in the
dairy market, too, didn’t help
very much starting out,” Josh
Callen, owner of The Hoyt
Report, said during the Idaho
Hay and Forage Association
annual conference.
The price of supreme
alfalfa hay delivered to
Tulare, Calif., took a big dip
from April to May. Prices
went from an average of
$275 a ton to $265, some
of the lowest prices in a few
years, he said.
They recovered steadily
over the summer, and are
back at around $275. Some
of the jump in September
and October was due to wild-
fires in California, which
hurt the quality of some later
cuttings, he said.
Fourth-quarter
prices
were $285, spurred by dair-
ies that have cheese as their
main outlet.
Idaho’s supreme alfalfa
started off $30 lower year
over year in May and June.
In June, it was just above
$170 but moved into the
$180s in October.
Prices held fairly steady
over the winter, and January
prices should average $185,
he said.
While most western mar-
kets recovered from the pan-
demic, the Columbia Basin
was a different story. Wash-
ington in general was really
different this year, he said.
The market for premium
alfalfa started lower just
like everywhere else. But it
didn’t see the recovery that
other states experienced, he
said.
That hay was $195 in
June compared with nearly
$210 a year earlier, and the
price moved lower to $170
by December.
“That price kept going
down,” and there were a cou-
ple of factors, he said.
One was Washington had
more alfalfa acres in 2020
because the Timothy hay
market wasn’t good in 2019.
Another factor was lower
demand from the Middle
East.
“Another thing has been
that the dairies in Washing-
ton, I think, had a tougher
time
pricewise
com-
pared to other areas,” he
said.
A few dairy cooperatives
dominate in Washington,
and labor costs are higher, he
said.
“Those dairies, too, were
in a little worse shape so they
were probably a lot more
cautious in their buying,” he
said.
He expects that hay will
average $170 to $175 in
January.
Prices for premium/
supreme alfalfa in central
and southern Oregon tend to
be pretty steady. Harvest got
going later than other places
so by mid-to late-June, some
of the coronavirus disruption
had started to calm down, he
said.
Prices were comparable
to a year earlier at around
$210.
Markets for Idaho feeder
hay started off quite a bit
lower year over year in June,
below $130. Prices hov-
ered around $125 in August,
September
and
Octo-
ber but climbed to $140 in
December.
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