Capital press., February 14, 2020, Page 12, Image 12

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Friday, February 14, 2020
Livestock
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Cattle inventory shows
end to beef herd expansion
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
The number of beef and
dairy cattle and calves on
Jan. 1 in the U.S. was slightly
lower year-over-year at 94.4
million head, according to
USDA National Agricultural
Statistics Service.
USDA’s tally was on target
with most pre-report estimates
on total inventory but showed
a much smaller decline than
expected by John Nalivka,
owner of Sterling Marketing
in Vale, Ore.
“I thought there’d be a lot
more liquidation … given
the cow slaughter and heifer
slaughter last year,” he said.
Heifer slaughter in 2019 was
up 7% year over year and repre-
sented 49.3% of heifers weigh-
ing 500 pounds and above —
the highest since 2011, when
the industry liquidated 2% of
the entire cattle herd, he said.
In addition, that heifer
slaughter represented 27% of
the 2018 calf crop — also the
highest since 2011, he said.
He’s not going to argue
with USDA’s numbers, which
are compiled from producer
U.S. cattle inventory, Jan. 1
(Million head)
2019
2020
Item
Percent
change
Cattle and calves
Beef cows and heifers
that have calved
Replacement beef heifers*
-Expected to calve*
94.8
31.7
94.4
31.3
-0.4%
-1.2
5.9
3.53
5.8
3.5
-1.9
-0.8
Item
(Million head)
2018
2019
Calf crop
36.3
Source: USDA NASS
*500 pounds and over
36.1
Percent
change
-0.7
Capital Press graphic
Cattle inventory suggests
better prices in 2020
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
Don Jenkins/Capital Press file
The number of beef and dairy cattle and calves on Jan. 1 in the U.S. was slightly
lower year-over-year at 94.4 million head.
surveys, but slaughter is a
good statistic, he said.
Cow slaughter in 2019 was
up 4% year over year, rep-
resenting 15.9% of the cow
inventory at the beginning
of 2019 — the highest since
2013, he said.
“I would have expected
a larger drop in the cow and
heifer inventory,” resulting in
more of a decline in total cat-
tle inventory, he said.
The 1% decline in the 2019
calf crop, however, shouldn’t
be a surprise to anyone —
given last year’s significant
and severe flooding along the
Missouri River, he said.
“We had a lot of death in the
calf crop last year,” he said.
Last year’s calf crop is
largely this year’s feeder cat-
tle supply, and there’s going to
be fewer cattle available this
year. It won’t show up until
the second half of the year,
however, as the industry is
still working through cattle on
feed and cattle placed on feed
last year, he said.
Katelyn McCullock, direc-
tor of the Livestock Marketing
Information Center, said the
report was largely in line with
expectations, but the num-
ber of beef replacement heif-
ers was quite a bit smaller than
expected.
Florida rancher takes reins at NCBA
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
Fifth-generation Florida rancher
Marty Smith was elected president of
National Cattlemen’s Beef Association at
the annual Cattle Industry Convention in
San Antonio, Texas.
He replaces Jennifer Houston of
Sweetwater, Tenn.
Smith operates Smith Brothers-Waca-
hoota LLC, a cow-calf operation in central
Florida. It has been in continuous operation
since 1852 and retains ownership through
feedlots in Texas, Kansas and Iowa.
Smith graduated from the University
of Georgia with a bachelor’s degree in
agricultural econom-
ics and animal sci-
ence. While at the uni-
versity, he was on the
livestock judging team
and served as presi-
dent of Ag Hill Coun-
Marty Smith cil. He was also active
in Alpha Gamma Rho
and AGHON, the high-
est honor a UGA student of agriculture,
forestry, veterinary medicine or engineer-
ing can attain.
He graduated from the University of
Florida College of Law and was admitted
to the Florida Bar in 1984.
“It’s a tremendous honor to lead the
oldest and largest national organization
representing America’s cattle producers,”
Smith said in a press release.
“We have a great product with a
great story, and I’m looking forward to
helping tell that story without apology
during the year ahead as president of
NCBA,” he said.
Also elected to the officer team were:
Jerry Bohn of Kansas, president-elect;
Don Schiefelbein of Minnesota, vice pres-
ident; Todd Wilkinson of South Dakota,
policy chairman; Mark Eisele of Wyo-
ming, policy vice chairman; Buck Weh-
rbein of Nebraska, federation chairman;
and Scott McGregor of Iowa, federation
vice chairman.
USDA’s Jan. 1 cattle inven-
tory — showing a reduced herd
and a 1% decline in the 2019
calf crop — is expected to have
a positive effect on cattle prices
in 2020.
Live cattle prices through-
out the sector should be higher
as long as demand stays strong,
Katelyn McCullock, director
of the Livestock Marketing
Information Center, said.
LMIC is expecting fed cat-
tle prices to increase $4 to $6
a hundredweight on average in
2020. Feeder cattle and calves
could see even bigger gains,
she said. Prices for 500- to 600-
pound steers might be a little
below last year’s average in the
first quarter but moving for-
ward could see some big gains,
particularly in the fourth quar-
ter, she said.
Fourth quarter prices could
be $10 a hundredweight higher
than the same period in 2019,
assuming a large corn crop and
modest feed prices, she said.
Prices on 700- to 800-pound
steers will likely see a smaller
price increase over 2019, but
the annual average is expected
to be $4 to $7 a hundredweight
higher than 2019’s average, she
said.
All these
prices
are
based
on
expected
slightly lower
corn prices
in 2020 and
Katelyn
fairly stable
McCullock demand, she
said.
Demand has been really
good the last two years, and
she’s not sure if that will hold.
One potential challenge for
beef would be a domestic and
global economic slowdown in
late 2020, she said.
Demand for animal protein
in China, due to African swine
fever, should have a big impact.
But now the corona virus could
have a negative impact on
global demand, she said.
Cow-calf returns should
be better in 2020 on better
calf prices and better cull cow
prices. A lot of foreign lean
beef that was coming to the
U.S. is going elsewhere, which
should raise cull cow prices in
the U.S., she said.
John Nalivka, owner of
Sterling Marketing in Vale,
Ore., expects cow slaughter to
be down 3% year over year in
2020. That would also support
cull cow prices, and cull cows
are 10% to 15% of a rancher’s
revenue, he said.
Idaho cattle producer
to lead Beef Board
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
Jared
Brackett,
a
fifth-generation cow/calf
producer from Filer, Idaho,
was elected chairman of
the Cattlemen’s Beef Pro-
motion & Research Board
during the 2020 Cattle
Industry Convention in
San Antonio, Texas.
A past president of the
Idaho Cattlemen’s Asso-
ciation, Brackett contin-
ues to serve on a number
of other livestock commit-
tees and boards in addi-
tion to his responsibilities
guiding the beef checkoff.
He holds a degree in agri-
culture economics from
Texas A&M.
“The beef industry has
been a part of my family’s
livelihood for decades,”
Brackett said in a press
release.
“While there’s no doubt
that our industry has its
own unique set of chal-
lenges, I believe that by
working together, we can
enact positive change that
will continue to drive beef
demand
w o r l d -
wide,” he
said.
During
his tenure as
Beef Board
Jared
chairman,
Brackett
he plans to
collaborate
with the officer team and
the entire board to encour-
age checkoff advocacy and
find new ways to move the
industry forward, he said.
Brackett served as vice
chairman of the Beef
Board in 2019.
Also elected to the offi-
cer team are Hugh San-
burg of Eckert, Colo., and
Norman Voyles Jr. of Mar-
tinsville, Ind.
Sanburg, a cow/calf and
registered Hereford oper-
ator, will transition from
his role as the 2019 sec-
retary-treasurer to become
vice chairman.
Voyles, a seventh-gen-
eration grain and live-
stock operator, is the
newest member of the
officer team and 2020
secretary-treasurer.
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