Capital press. (Salem, OR) 19??-current, March 08, 2019, Image 10

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Newspaper Page Text10 CapitalPress.com Friday, March 8, 2019 Subscribe to our weekly dairy or livestock email newsletter at CapitalPress.com/newsletters Dairy/Livestock U.S. cattle numbers hold steady By CAROL RYAN DUMAS Capital Press USDA’s annual inventory of cattle shows the number of all beef and dairy cattle and calves in the U.S. on Jan. 1 was slightly higher than a year earlier. At nearly 94.8 million, the tally increased 461,700 head year over year. The number of beef cows and calved heifers at 31.8 million was up 1% and nearly 300,000 head, the National Agricultural Sta- tistics Service reported on Thursday. Beef replacement heifers at 5.9 million was down 3% and about 283,000 head. The 2018 calf crop at 36.4 mil- lion was up 2% and about 644,000 head. Cattle on feed in all U.S. feedlots, including small feedlots, at 14.4 million is up 2 percent. The report held no major surprises and conﬁ rms what the industry had expected, Derrell Peel, livestock mar- keting specialist at Okla- homa State University, said. Beef herd expansion is slowing, and cattle numbers are approaching a plateau, he said. “The beef cow-herd num- ber was a little bigger than some expected but not enough to change the story,” he said. There might be a little more growth in cattle num- bers next year, but it will be minimal if it happens. Beef replacement heifers were Carol Ryan Dumas/Capital Press File Beef cattle graze in Idaho’s Wood River Valley. Analysts say cattle numbers may grow next year, but it will be minimal. U.S. cattle inventory, Jan. 1 (Million head) 2018 2019 Item Cattle and calves Beef cows and heifers that have calved Replacement beef heifers Replacement beef heifers expected to calve Percent change 94.3 31.5 94.8 31.8 0.5% 1 6.1 3.8 5.9 3.5 -3 -6 Item (Million head) 2017 2018 Calf crop 35.8 Percent change 36.4 Source: USDA NASS 2 Capital Press graphic down last year as well, and the report reinforces that herd expansion is slowing to a point that there’ll be little to no change in cattle num- bers, he said. The report also contained the quarterly cattle on feed numbers, which showed more heifers on feed for the 12th quarterly report in a row, he said. “It’s all consistent with a slowdown in expansion. The report really provides a lit- tle certainty to the story,” he said. The 2018 calf crop was up and the 2019 calf crop should be slightly larger, so there are ample feeder sup- plies in the pipeline through 2020 — leading to modest increases in beef produc- tion this year and in 2020, he said. The report was also no surprise to John Nalivka, owner of Sterling Marketing in Vale, Ore. “It matches my projec- tions pretty closely,” he said. He did, however, expect the number of beef replace- ment heifers expected to calve in 20019 to be larger. Those heifers were retained in 2017 and bred in 2018, and 2017 was a pretty good year for cow-calf producers, he said. “I thought maybe there’d been more motivation to hold back heifers and con- tinue expansion,” he said. But heifer slaughter was up 6% last year and up 12% in 2017. In addition, cow slaughter was up 6% last year and 7% in 2017. Those signiﬁ cant increases put things in perspective, he said. “You can’t be slaughter- ing that many cows and heif- ers and not be putting the brakes on expansion,” he said. But 2018 was a pretty good year for cow-calf pro- ducers, with about a $160 per cow return on a cash basis. So producers might have held more heifers back for replacement last fall, he said. “If prices hold together this year and demand is good, we might slowly build the herd again,” he said. Eastern farmers keep milk production in check By CAROL RYAN DUMAS Capital Press The ﬁ rst milk production report since the partial gov- ernment shutdown shows the U.S. is slowing the ﬂ ow, growing just 0.5% year over year in December. But spigot rates varied across the country, with some big reductions to the east of the Mississippi River offset by some signiﬁ cant increases to the west. Milk production dropped 12.3% in Virginia, 9.7% in Illinois, 7.2% in Florida, 6% in Pennsylvania and 3.7% in Indiana. Pennsylvania dropped 20,000 cows from the herd year over year. The cow count was down 8,000 head in Virginia, Illinois and Flor- ida and down 6,000 head in Indiana. Countering those decreases were milk produc- tion increases in Colorado (up 6%), South Dakota (up 5.5%), Kansas (up 5.3%), Idaho (up 4.9%), Washington and Texas (each up 4.8%), Oregon (up 4.3%), Utah (up 2.1%), and California (up 1.7%). OREGON WOMEN FOR AGRICULTURE THANKS These Wonderful Sponsors Who Helped to Make Our Golden Jubilee Convention Such a Special Event Platinum Sponsors EMPOWERING PRODUCERS OF FOOD & FIBER Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsor Paul & Jeraldine Mulkey Supporting Sponsors • Monmouth/Independence Chamber of Commerce • Oregon Women in Timber • Polk County Farm Bureau • Spirit Mountain Casino • Travel Polk County • Wilco • Yamhill County Farm Bureau Tour Sponsors • Freddy Guys Hazelnuts • Gylan Mulkey Farms • Miami Corporation • Oregon Forest Resources Institute • Rock n Rogers/ Farrol’s Restaurant • Starker Forests • Western Helicopter Services • Weyerhaeuser Company 1969 - 2019 10-3/HOU 0000000-ROP-107629-CP-OWAthankyou.indd 1 3/5/19 8:13 AM All of those states increased cow numbers year over year, with Texas top- ping the list with an addi- tional 27,000 head. Heavy hitters Idaho and Califor- nia added 14,000 and 11,000 cows, respectively. Nonetheless, total cow numbers across the country declined 49,000 year over year in December. The good news is milk production was only up half a percent in the last quarter of the year and cow num- bers are still going down, Bob Cropp, an economist at the University of Wiscon- sin, said in the latest “Dairy Situation and Outlook” podcast. For all of 2018, milk pro- duction was up a little over 1% and cow numbers are lower, he said. “So that’s good news because (with) production at that level … we should start seeing some improvement in prices,” he said. Prices have increased in the last six Global Dairy Trade auctions, with prices for all products except but- ter running higher than U.S. prices. EU intervention stocks of powder are practically eliminated, increasing pow- der prices in the EU, he said. That’s also reﬂ ected in the U.S. Class IV milk price, which is up almost $1 per hundredweight, Mark Ste- phenson, another Univer- sity of Wisconsin economist, said. But the Class III price on milk for cheese is still strug- gling, he said. Cheese demand is a little soft, and the last stocks report was 8% higher year over year. There’s been a little movement upward in cheese prices, but not enough to get Class III prices out of the $14 range, Cropp said. The futures market antic- ipates Class III prices in the $15s in the second quarter and hitting $16 by August. But he’s a little more opti- mistic than that if milk pro- duction stays at current lev- els, he said. “Normally you could han- dle about a 1% growth in production with the domestic demand and more exports,” he said. But there has to be strength in prices and a reduction in cheese stocks, he said. “This is one of those areas where you could say it could go either way,” Stephenson said. Judge: Organic livestock rule lawsuit can proceed By CAROL RYAN DUMAS Capital Press A federal judge has decided a lawsuit the Organic Trade Association ﬁ led against USDA over its withdrawal of the new organic livestock and poul- try rule can proceed. That rule, ﬁ nalized on the last day of the Obama administration in January 2017, included new stan- dards for raising, trans- porting and slaughtering organic animals. It was set to go into effect in March 2017 but was delayed by an exec- utive order by President Trump delaying imple- mentation of all pending regulations. USDA delayed imple- mentation again in May and November 2017 and withdrew the rule in March 2018, stating it exceeds the agency’s statutory authority and could have a negative effect on vol- untary participation in the National Organic Program. OTA challenged the delays in court in Septem- ber 2017, amending its complaint twice and chal- lenging the withdrawal of the rule. The government moved to dismiss OTA’s second amended complaint chal- lenging USDA’s with- drawal of the rule, citing a lack of standing by OTA. But the court on Wednesday denied that motion, ﬁ nding OTA does have standing on behalf of its members, who contend they will face increased competition in the mar- ketplace as a result of the withdrawal of the rule. OTA’s members, who already comply with the requirements of the rule, state they suffer compet- itive harm because they must continue to compete against other organic oper- ators who achieve lower production costs by not adhering to those practices. The judge concluded the injury to OTA’s mem- bers is “concrete and par- ticularized” and therefore OTA has standing to chal- lenge withdrawal of the rule. “The court has recog- nized the harm to organic producers, to organic busi- nesses and to the integ- rity of the organic seal … and the potential for even greater damage,” Laura Batcha, CEO and execu- tive director of OTA, said, in a statement on Thursday. “We are conﬁ dent our case is strong and look for- ward to winning this legal battle to uphold organic standards,” she said. The court also allowed OTA to proceed with its claim that USDA violated the Organic Food Pro- duction Act by failing to consult with the National Organic Standards Board when considering and ﬁ nalizing withdrawal of the rule. While the court could not ﬁ nd a blanket require- ment for USDA to consult with the board on livestock regulations, it also could not decide whether USDA was nonetheless required to do so before promulgat- ing the withdrawal rule. The Organic Livestock and Poultry Practices Rule was the “largest and most important organic rule pro- mulgated since the 2010 Access to Pasture Rule, and USDA consulted over its development with the Board,” Senior Judge Rosemary Collyer of the U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia wrote in her ruling. As such, USDA might have been required to con- sult with the board before ﬁ nalizing the withdrawal rule — which was simi- larly large and important, she wrote. The court did, how- ever, dismiss OTA’s chal- lenge to USDA’s delays in implementation — on the grounds of the lack of or insufﬁ cient public notice and comment — ﬁ nding those claims were made moot by the withdrawal of the rule. Dairy markets remain hesitant By LEE MIELKE For the Capital Press Cheese traders took the Cheddar blocks higher for the ﬁ fth week in a row, closing Friday at $1.61 per pound, up 1 1/2-cents on the week, the highest since October and 5 cents above a year ago. The barrels ﬁ nished at $1.41, up a half-cent on the week, 6 1/2-cents below a year ago, and 20 cents below the blocks. The blocks dropped 4 cents Monday and stayed there Tuesday at $1.57. The barrels gained 2 cents Monday and were unchanged Tuesday, hold- ing at $1.43. Cheese demand varies, according to Dairy Market News, but a growing seg- ment of Midwestern cheese- makers reported a seasonal shift slower. Cheese inven- tory is unchanged but long. Milk is readily available in the West and vats are at or near capacity and cheese makers are employing sev- eral strategies to control the size and type of inventory. Butter closed Friday at $2.2875 per pound, up 2 3/4-cents on the week, the highest since Feb. 1 and 8 3/4-cents above a year ago. Monday’s butter jumped 5 1/4-cents, then gave back 4 1/2-cents Tuesday, fall- ing back to $2.2950. Central plant managers continue reporting widely available cream for the churns but demand is pick- ing up ahead of the spring holidays. Inventories are plentiful, but contacts sug- DAIRY MARKETS Lee Mielke gest they are in a good place ahead of increasing seasonal demand. Western churning con- tinues at a full and fast pace. Some processors have stopped buying cream as they do not have enough capacity. Butter supplies are plentiful and stocks continue to increase but sales are generally stable, says DMN. Spot Grade A nonfat dry milk saw a close Friday at 98 1/2-cents per pound, down 1 1/4-cents on the week but 32 1/4-cents above a year ago. The powder inched a quarter-cent higher Mon- day, then lost 1 1/4-cents Tuesday, sliding to 97 1/2-cents per pound. Dry whey saw some ups and downs last week but ﬁ nished Friday at 36 cents per pound, 1 1/4-cents higher on the week, with a whopping 47 cars sold at the CME. The whey lost three-quarters Monday and a quarter-cent Tues- day, slipping to 35 cents per pound. GDT climbs Technical issues delayed reporting of the March 5 Global Dairy Trade auc- tion but once resolved the weighted average of products offered moved higher for the seventh con- secutive event, jumping 3.3%.