February 26, 2016
CapitalPress.com
3
Generational shift stunts USDA’s Foreign Ag Service chief
wine appetites, experts say answers questions on trade deal
Oregon winegrape
production (Thousands of tons)
By MATEUSZ PERKOWSKI
Alan Kenaga/Capital Press
Sources: USDA NASS; Southern
Oregon University Research Center
Capital Press
38.6
PORTLAND — Genera-
tional changes are expected
to stymie per-capita U.S. con-
sumption of wine in 2016, at
least temporarily stunting the
longtime upward trend, ex-
perts say.
The “baby boomer” gen-
eration, which consumes the
most wine, is now preparing
for retirement and feeling
pressure to spend less and
save more, said Mark Freund,
managing director for Silicon
Valley Bank, which tracks the
wine industry.
Meanwhile, the “millenni-
al” generation faces its own
fi nancial concerns — such as
paying off student debt — and
isn’t as dedicated to wine, he
said Feb. 23 during the 2016
Oregon Wine Symposium in
Portland, Ore.
Over the long term, though,
there’s reason to believe that
history will repeat itself and
young people will come to
prefer wine as they grow old-
er, Freund said.
Other economic factors cut
both ways.
Fuel prices are lower, al-
lowing consumers to spend
more on wine, but the vola-
tile stock market has raised
concerns about recession and
infl ation-adjusted incomes re-
main fl at, he said.
“It’s diffi cult for the mid-
dle class to get ahead when
there hasn’t been real wage
growth,” Freund said.
U.S. wineries can also
expect to face more foreign
competition. While the out-
put of wine-producing coun-
tries such as France, Italy and
Spain has trended upward,
their domestic consumption is
down, he said.
78.3
2007
3
34.7
56.2
50.2
40.2
Capital Press
31.2
’08
’09
’10
’11
’12
’13
Oregon wine sales
2014
2.68
Sources: USDA NASS; Southern
Oregon University Research Center
Alan Kenaga/Capital Press
0.89
2.86 million: Up
6.9% from 2013
1
0
By MATEUSZ PERKOWSKI
41.5
(Millions of cases)
2
Up
31%
from
2013
1998
’00
’02
’04
That means those countries
will be eager to export to the
U.S., which has emerged as
the top wine consumer in the
world, he said.
Young drinkers’ appetite
for craft beer doesn’t nec-
essarily have to come at the
expense of the wine industry,
said Christian Miller, propri-
etor of Full Glass Research, a
market analysis fi rm.
The popularity of craft beer
is associated with consumers
seeking higher quality and
more intense fl avors, which
is a “cultural trend” that may
also help wine, he said.
“What they’re shedding is
the Budweisers and Coors of
the world,” Miller said.
The millennial generation
represents about 30 percent of
the “high frequency” class of
U.S. wine drinkers, who buy
roughly 80 percent of the wine
in the U.S., he said.
’06
’08
’10
’12
2014
Baby boomers comprise
38 percent of high frequency
wine drinkers, while the older
generation represents 13 per-
cent and “Generation X” rep-
resents 19 percent.
Sparkling wines have ex-
perienced consistent growth
since 2010, which may bring
new consumers to the overall
wine industry, Miller said.
Consumers associate Or-
egon wines with small pro-
ducers, food friendliness and
good value, though the region
still isn’t as well-known as the
Napa and Sonoma regions of
California, he said.
The main reasons cited by
high-frequency drinkers for
not buying Oregon wine is
that they prefer wine from oth-
er regions, that Oregon wines
aren’t available where they
shop and that Oregon doesn’t
produce the varietals they
commonly drink, Miller said.
Cool-weather grapes challenged by warming
By ERIC MORTENSON
Capital Press
PORTLAND — Average
temperatures in various parts
of the Pacifi c Northwest have
risen 1.3 to 2.5 degrees since
the mid-20th century, forcing
changes in how vineyards and
wineries operate, speakers at
the annual Oregon Wine Sym-
posium said.
Climate change has altered
the timing of harvest, changed
grape ripening profi les and
forced growers and wine
makers to account for fl uctu-
ating sugar and acid balances
and to deal with new pests
and diseases, said Greg Jones,
a Southern Oregon University
professor who specializes in
wine climatology.
The past year was the
warmest in recorded history
globally, Jones said. The “heat
content” of the world’s oceans
has increased tremendously,
he said, which likely will have
dramatic impact on weather
patterns. “This may be the
real issue as we go forward,”
Jones said.
Jones and
his counterpart
from France’s
famed
Bur-
gundy region,
Benjamin
Jones
Bois, headed
a
discussion
that attracted an estimated
200 people. Mark Chien, co-
ordinator of Oregon State
University’s Wine Research
Institute, moderated the dis-
cussion. Chien noted that Ore-
gon’s niche success within the
wine industry began with cool
weather grapes, Pinot noir. A
warming challenges the in-
dustry, he said. The wine sym-
posium and accompanying
trade show attract about 1,400
people annually to the Oregon
Convention Center in Port-
land. The agenda each year
includes detailed discussions
of grape growing and wine
making. Many of the sessions
included Spanish interpreta-
tion, a nod to the workforce in
most vineyards.
The trade show annually
features equipment dealers,
label makers and suppliers
of corks, barrels and tanks,
among many others. Ven-
dor booths ranged from one
staffed by the Davis Wright
Tremaine law fi rm, which
has a wineries, breweries and
distilleries practice group, to
MaxYield Falconry, which
uses falcons to chase pest
birds from vineyards, or-
chards or berry fi elds.
The climate change pre-
sentation was among the bet-
ter-attended sessions. Bois,
a professor of viticulture and
climatology at the University
de Bourgogne in France, lent
some perspective to the rela-
tive youth of the West Coast
wine industry when he said
2003 was the earliest Burgun-
dy harvest on record — which
dates to the 14th century.
But he said the region’s Pi-
not noir wine from 2003 is in
good shape, suggesting there
is some “range and space”
within a warming environ-
ment in which wine quality is
not harmed.
TIME FOR A NEW TRUCK?
PORTLAND — With the
Obama administration in its fi -
nal year in offi ce, trade offi cials
want to persuade Congress to
ratify the Trans-Pacifi c Partner-
ship, a wide-ranging and con-
troversial trade deal that would
likely face an uncertain future
under a future administration.
Earlier this year, the 12 na-
tions involved in the negotia-
tions — U.S., Australia, Brunei,
Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia,
Mexico, New Zealand, Peru,
Singapore and Vietnam —
agreed to the TPP and now must
have their governments ratify it.
Philip Karsting, administra-
tor of the USDA’s Foreign Agri-
cultural Service, recently spoke
with Capital Press about the
deal’s importance to U.S. farm-
ers during a stop in Portland,
Ore. The following conversation
has been edited for length and
clarity.
Capital Press: What are
some of the consequences
for U.S. agriculture from the
Trans-Pacifi c Partnership?
Phil Karsting: We think
there is a lot of opportunity
here. Altogether the countries
that are part of the TPP con-
versation constitute 40 percent
of global GDP (gross domestic
product, a common measure of
economic activity). There’s an
increasing hunger for American
agricultural products. One of
the things the TPP does is in the
beef sector. Japan already has
an agreement with Australia, so
their beef goes into Japan at a
comparative advantage to U.S.
beef. Once TPP is enforced, our
folks will be able to compete on
a level playing fi eld.
CP: What is the danger
if the U.S. doesn’t ratify the
agreement?
PK: The risk that we’re fac-
ing is that we’d lose access and
other people are going to be
able to capitalize on the access
they create. There is this notion
in some circles that our choice
as a nation is between the TPP
and the status quo. That really
isn’t the case. The question isn’t
between TPP and the status quo,
it’s between TPP — which we
helped design the platform for
trade — versus an evolution in
trading relationships that we
have no say about.
CP: What are the hurdles
facing its ratifi cation among
the parties?
PK: Because this is a 12-par-
ty negotiated agreement, you
can’t just pull one thing out and
say we’re going
to renegotiate
X, Y and Z. It
doesn’t work
that way. If you
pull one thing
out, that means
something else
Karsting
falls off in an-
other part of the
agreement because it’s all wo-
ven together. The way it would
enter into force is when 85 per-
cent of the GDP of the countries
involved agree to it. As a practi-
cal matter, that means we need
the United States and Japan and
then a few more. And if a coun-
try doesn’t agree to it, then they
don’t get the benefi ts of it.
CP: Critics of the deal
have complained about the
enforceability of labor stan-
dards included in it, as well
as a confl ict resolution mech-
anism known as investor-state
dispute settlement, in which a
company can legally challenge
the regulations of a TPP sig-
natory outside that country’s
court system. How do you re-
spond to these concerns?
PK: On the labor standards,
we have never had a multi-lat-
eral trade agreement that has as
enforceable labor standards as
this one. It has disciplines (en-
forceable standards) on forced
labor, child labor. Vietnam, for
instance, is going to have to
make some changes in how it
does business to comply with the
rules of TPP on minimum wage
and those sorts of things. We’ve
never had as many labor-friend-
ly provisions baked into the sub-
stance of a trade agreement as
we have on this one.
On the investor-state dispute
settlement piece, the U.S. is
party to a whole lot of investor
state dispute settlement treaties,
and we’ve never lost a case
that’s been brought against us.
It’s not a big threat to America’s
legal system or to America’s
way of life. The whole premise
of ISDS is to create a frame-
work where U.S. investors
overseas can be assured they’ll
receive fair treatment in a for-
eign country.
ROP-32-52-2/#17
U.S. per-capita wine
consumption expected
to halt temporarily
Obama administration
hoping to ratify Trans-
Pacifi c Partnershi p
Take a new look at an old friend.
Shelly Boshart Davis
Oregon Aglink Board Member
She is a third generation farmer who
produces grass seed, hazelnuts, wheat
and bale grass straw along with two of
her siblings and her parents. They also
have a trucking export business,
providing transportation services to local
farmers in Oregon.
Shelly is currently the president of the US Forage Export
Council, and is also active with Oregon Women for
Agriculture, Oregon Farm Bureau, National Hay Association,
Oregon Export Straw Association, sits on the Ag Advisory
Board of Santiam Christian Schools, while also being a
member of the Albany Chamber of Commerce Government
Affairs Committee.
• Hillyers Ford fleet department offers fleet pricing to all business owners,
farmers, ranchers, dairymen & their family.
• No hassle bottom line fleet pricing gladly given over the phone or email.
• All trades welcomed, as long as it doesn’t eat.
• Ford commercial, business, farm loans & leasing programs.
Shelly and her family became members of Oregon Aglink
because “Many kids don’t know where their food comes from,
have never stepped on a farm, or have any idea why there are
big tractors that drive slowly on the road. I feel responsible to
take advantage of every situation to explain and/or show kids
all aspects of our farm. Oregon Aglink and the Adopt a
Farmer program is an incredible way to fill that need.”
Become a member today!
Call Ken Heffner (Fleet Manager)
30+ years Ford Experience
7360 SW Hunziker St., Suite 102
1-800-307-4447 ext. 1407
Cell: 503-330-FORD (3673)
Email: ken@hillyers.com
Portland, OR 97223 • 503-595-9121
Out of stock or factory special orders- same price
9-1/#7
www.aglink.org
9-1/#13