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CapitalPress.com
January 22, 2016
Popular meteorologist Art Douglas
offers his take on El Nino’s impact
By MATTHEW WEAVER
Capital Press
Meteorologist Art Douglas
is a fixture at the Spokane Ag
Expo and Pacific Northwest
Farm Forum each year, bringing
his unique perspective on the
weather to the region’s many
farmers and ranchers.
This year, all eyes are on
El Nino, warm water that has
pooled in the Pacific Ocean,
and how it will impact the West
Coast’s weather during the next
year.
Peterson will speak during
the Pacific Northwest Farm Fo-
rum main session, which starts
at 9 a.m. Tuesday, Feb. 2.
Dry conditions in the Pacif-
ic Northwest are part of the El
Nino pattern, which started to
develop in 2013. As it became
a “mega” El Nino the impact
spread.
Douglas predicts that El
Nino will likely start to fade
by March or April, with neutral
conditions developing by the be-
ginning of summer.
“It’s probably not quick
enough to turn moisture con-
Capital Press file
Meteorologist Art Douglas
will offer his annual outlook
during this year’s Spokane Ag
Expo and Pacific Northwest
Farm Forum, starting at 9 a.m.
Tuesday, Feb. 2.
ditions around in the Pacific
Northwest in the critical time
in which the wheat is in the
ground,” Douglas, professor
emeritus at Creighton Universi-
ty in Omaha, Neb., said. “It’s not
real positive.”
Douglas also expects to talk
about climate change during his
presentation. Warming has tak-
en place on the planet and the
amount of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere has more than dou-
bled, he said. But within the sci-
entific community, he believes
“global warming” is too often
blamed for abnormal weather
instead of changes in the oceans
that are likely to reverse.
“If that’s the case, we’re go-
ing to see a slowdown in glob-
al warming and other types of
weather patterns taking over,”
he said.
For example, from 1998
to 2011, the Pacific Ocean’s
“decadal oscillation” was in a
good phase for moisture in the
Pacific Northwest and “disas-
trous” for California and Texas,
Douglas said. Now the cycle is
changing, returning the region
to drier climate similar to that in
the 1960s and 1970s, he said.
In 2016, the El Nino may
give way to a strong La Nina
pattern, which would create a
year of wet weather.
“We may have one nice,
good, wet winter next year, and
then we’ve got to be prepared
for quite a few years of recurrent
below-normal precipitation in
the Northwest,” Douglas said.
Farmers flock to hear Douglas talk
By MATTHEW WEAVER
Capital Press
Courtney Morse gets up
early to make sure he hears Art
Douglas deliver his weather
forecast.
Morse drives the 50 miles
from his farm, south of Daven-
port, Wash., to Spokane to make
sure he doesn’t miss the popular
weatherman’s presentation.
Morse said Douglas’ presen-
tations are like taking a class in
meteorology.
“He’ll take you to the next
level, (how) ocean tempera-
tures, wind currents and what’s
happening in a different part of
the planet will affect the weather
here,” Morse said.
Douglas has spoken at 28 of
the last 29 Spokane Ag Expos
and is a popular mainstay.
When he was involved with
the Washington State Farm Bu-
reau, Davenport farmer William
Guhlke would divide his time
between the Spokane Ag Expo
and meetings with legislators in
Olympia.
“I would crawl over the
mountains for Art Douglas, to
hear him talk,” Guhlke said.
“He’s not the guy that’s going to
predict it’s going to be 100 de-
Matthew Weaver/Capital Press
Davenport, Wash., farmer Courtney Morse, left, and another
audience member speak with weatherman Art Douglas prior to his
forecast at the 2013 Spokane Ag Expo and Pacific Northwest Farm
Forum. Farmers praise Douglas for his accuracy and accessibility.
grees on the Fourth of July, and
then it rains. If he says it’s going
to snow and you’ll have a bliz-
zard on Christmas, you better
bet you’re gonna have a blizzard
on Christmas.”
“He’s usually pretty down
to earth — you can understand
where he’s coming from when
he’s explaining what he expects
to happen,” said Art Swannack,
a Lamont, Wash., rancher. “He
does a good job of explaining
why he believes the ocean cy-
cles are the primary driver of
our weather in Eastern Wash-
ington.”
The farmers said Douglas’
forecast helps them make plans
for their operations.
“He’s been fairly accurate
with all his statistics,” Guhlke
said. “He really predicted this
summer to be hot and dry, and
I felt he hit it right on. Maybe
I didn’t follow his advice good
enough. We had a tremendous-
ly hot summer, which devastat-
ed our crop. He was very right
about that.”
If Douglas predicts drought,
that means Morse will be less
aggressive when forward con-
tracting his wheat, the better to
take advantage of potentially
higher prices later, he said.