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14 CapitalPress.com December 25, 2015 Subscribe to our weekly dairy or livestock email newsletter at CapitalPress.com/newsletters Dairy/Livestock EU post-quota milk production even greater than expected 30 US. milk prices and production (Jan. 2014-Oct. 2015) $23.50 $25.70 25 All milk ($ per cwt) Class III ($ per cwt) Production* (Billions of pounds) *23 major states Sources: USDA AMS; USDA NASS By CAROL RYAN DUMAS Capital Press $24.60 20 While milk production growth is slowing in most export regions in response to falling prices, it continues to barrel ahead in Europe, par- ticularly in Ireland and the Netherlands. More milk supplies in response to the removal of milk quotas in early April were expected in Europe, but the growth is even great- er than anticipated, Rabo- bank analyst Matt Johnson said during the bank’s latest market webinar. European dairy farmers are operating in a market without production limits for the first time in 30 years, and they’ve responded with sig- nificant growth — boosting production 2.2 million tons from April through October compared to the same period in 2014, he said. Year-over-year produc- tion increases are growing, from 2.4 percent in Septem- ber to nearly 4 percent in October. And they’re likely to come in higher in Novem- ber and December compared with weaker figures, as sup- pliers were putting on the brakes in late 2014 to reduce over-quota super levies, he said. Most of the growth is coming from Ireland and the Netherlands, which together accounted for 60 percent of the additional supply. Simi- lar increases are expected in those two countries for No- vember and December, he said. Across Europe, post-quo- ta investments in new barns and additional cows are coming online, and those investments have to be paid for. Milk prices are being supported above market lev- el, with prices at an equiva- $17.70 $21.15 17.2 16.2 16 15 $15.46 Carol Ryan Dumas and Alan Kenaga/Capital Press 10 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O 2015 2014 Milk production drops in the West By CAROL RYAN DUMAS Capital Press U.S. milk production growth slowed overall in No- vember with the total up just 0.6 percent year over year to 16.6 billion pounds nation- wide. Cows wit t eir distincti e maternal instinct ta e care of a newly orn calf near esel ermany on Most of the slowing was Aug. 20. U farmers are increasing mil production in response to t e end of uotas. due to drought-related de- clines across the West, which lent of about $13.50 per hun- The government is work- Internal demand has also somewhat balanced out dredweight compared with ing on reference rates linked been better than it has for the continued strong growth in a value of closer to $11 for to the number of cows on the past several years, he said. the Midwest and moderate milk going into butter and farm, so dairymen are keep- Some milk prices in Eu- growth in the Northeast. skim milk powder, he said. The number of milk cows ing their cow numbers up, rope are starting to move In some cases, the sup- sending 22,000 fewer cows lower, and Rabobank expects nationwide was up 29,000 port is coming from co-ops to slaughter compared with European production and head to 9.31 million and selling some share holdings the previous year, he said. export surplus to shrink in production per cow, at 1,787 in their public companies Currency exchange rates 2016, but not until the second pounds, was up 4 pounds and sending the money back and a weaker euro are help- half of the year. Lower milk year over year. to farmers. In others, co-op ing exports, mitigating lost prices won’t begin to affect Production declines were reserves are being eroded markets due to Russia’s production until the start of led by California, down and sent to farmers at an ear- political sanctions and pre- the next milk season about 4.4 percent and 149 mil- lier stage, he said. lion pounds to 3.2 billion venting a buildup of stocks. March or April, he said. Those strategies are al- European dairy exports have Strong year-over-year pounds. Cows were down lowing dairy farmers to been performing well all year JURZWKLVH[SHFWHGLQWKH¿UVW 4,000 head, and milk per generate cash to pay back and were up 9 percent in liq- half, mainly due to weak- cow was off by 80 pounds investments, he said. uid milk equivalent year over er 2014 comparables. Ex- year over year. An additional dynamic year in the third quarter. Oregon and Washington change rates will still make is factoring into significant Further export incentive is exports attractive, but at also posted production de- growth in the Netherlands, in the lower buy-in for gov- some point export destina- clines, down 1.5 percent to where environmental regula- ernment intervention stocks, WLRQVZLOO¿OODQGWKRVHPDU 1.136 million pounds and tions, particularly for phos- which is down $500 a ton to kets will reduce imports, he 0.4 percent to 524 million phates, are being reviewed, $1,833 for skim milk powder said. pounds, respectively. Johnson said. Cow count was down since March 2014, he said. Both intervention and private storage aid stocks 1,000 head in Oregon and are likely to build and put held steady in Washing- some pressure on pricing de- ton. Milk per cow took a spite internal consumption 15-pound hit in Oregon and a 5-pound hit in Washington. growth, he said. Production in New Mexico decreased 3.3 percent to 617 million pounds. Cow num- bers held steady, but milk per cow was down 65 pounds. Idaho and Arizona were the only Western states post- ing production increases, up 1.9 percent to 1.136 billion pounds and 1.3 percent to 380 million pounds, respectively. Other declines were seen in Kansas, down 1.6 percent; Texas, down 1.7 percent; Utah, down 1.1 percent; and Virginia, down 2.1 percent. Notable increases were seen in Wisconsin, New York, Michigan, Indiana, Colorado and South Dakota. Wisconsin was up 4.3 per- cent to 2.349 billion pounds on 7,000 additional cows and an added 65 pounds per cow. New York posted a 3.3 percent increase to 1.147 bil- lion pounds on 5,000 addi- tional cows and an added 45 pounds per cow. Michigan was up 6.4 per- cent to 836 million pounds on 11,000 additional cows and an added 70 pounds per cow. Indiana was up 4.1 per- cent to 332 million pounds on 5,000 additional cows and an added 25 pounds per cow. Colorado was up 3.4 per- cent with an additional 4,000 head and an added 55 pounds per cow. Pre-calving nutrition critical for healthy cows By CAROL RYAN DUMAS Capital Press JEROME, Idaho — Healthy cows and viable calves are at the core of the cow-calf operation, and get- ting them through the cold, sometimes harsh, winters takes special attention. Proper winter feeding is critical, as what takes place during that pre-calving period sets things up for the rest of the year, John Hall, beef cattle specialist with the University of Idaho Nancy M. Cummings Center, told cattle producers at the Magic Valley extension beef school on Dec. 17. Cows that calve in poor body condition have longer postpartum intervals and low- er pregnancy rates and pro- duce weak calves, and heifers are particularly sensitive, he said. Nutrition in the last trimes- ter also affects a calf’s perfor- mance the rest of its life, with affected steers grading lower and heifers harder to breed back, he said. Producers should aim for a body condition score of 5 or 6, moderate but not fat. If the FRZ LV ³SOHQW\ ÀHVK\´ VKH¶V going to breed right back, he said. Anytime before calving is a good time to start working on body condition. It doesn’t matter where you start but where you end up at calving. After calving is too late, as the extra nutrition will be going to the nursing calf, he said. Pre-calving nutrition is also important for labor and calf performance directly af- ter birth. Research has shown that cows with restricted nu- trition in the last trimester took two hours to go through the birth process, ran out of steam and took longer to get up and tend to their calf. Their calf also took longer to stand up and to start sucking, Hall said. Calves need extra energy to keep warm in cold weath- er, and they can burn through the reserve they are born with within 24 hours. They need to “get up and suck pretty quick in Idaho,” considering typical winter conditions, he said. Cows lacking proper nu- trition are also likely to pro- duce calves with weak calf syndrome, which affects their ability to get up and nurse and comes with a high mortality rate, he said. A calf only has 24 hours before its gut closes, and its ability to absorb those antibodies in the colostrum diminishes over that period. Producers should also be aware that under-nourished cows produce fewer antibod- ies in the colostrum, he said. ’Twas the ‘weak’ before Christmas By LEE MIELKE For the Capital Press C 49-2/#8 ash dairy prices contin- ue to slide like an over- loaded sleigh. Traders, awaiting Friday afternoon’s November Milk Production report, reversed earlier week declines on cash block Cheddar cheese Friday morning, upping the price 3 cents, to close the day and the week at $1.44 per pound, still down a half-cent on the week and 17 cents below a year ago. The blocks were un- changed Monday but down 3 cents Tuesday, sliding to $1.41, the lowest level since Jan. 10, 2011. The barrels were bid up 4 cents Friday, closing at $1.45, up 2 3/4-cents on the week but a dime below a year ago. They retail and school sales pat- terns are altered for the holi- Dairy day weeks. Something must Markets be done with the milk, and Lee Mielke cheese continues to be among WKHPRVWSUR¿WDEOHXVHV´ Western cheese makers were unchanged Monday but also have plenty of milk and slipped to $1.42 Tuesday. Nineteen cars of block production is steady. Proces- were sold last week at the sors expect some downturn CME and 10 of barrel. Seven in demand after the holidays ORDGVRIEORFNDQG¿YHRIEDU but anticipate good requests rel went to Chicago Tuesday. through the Super Bowl. Cash butter grabbed a tree Dairy Market News says, “Continuing high milk sup- branch on its way down last plies are a big factor driving week. After dropping 70 cents ... cheese production. If you the week before and 13 cents run a cheese plant, you make last Monday, it inched up cheese. If you also have high three-quarter cents Wednes- milk availability at a favorable day, but plenty of product cost, you make more cheese.” found its way to Chicago (26 Milk was ample and more loads) and pulled the spot to will be looking for a home this $2.06 per pound Friday, down week and next when DMN 14 cents on the week, but 45 VD\V ³SUHYDLOLQJ ÀXLG PLON cents above a year ago.