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12 CapitalPress.com January 23, 2015 More than half of farmers surveyed disagree that global warming is human-caused CLIMATE from Page 1 51 degrees Farhenheit Farmers have long taken a keen interest in a changing cli- mate and potential effects, good and bad, on what they grow and how they grow it. But they see broad room for interpretation — and so do many scientists, for that matter — about what’s causing climate change, if it’s happening at all, and what the future may hold. On Jan. 15, scientists with NASA and the National Ocean- ic and Atmospheric Administra- tion announced their indepen- dent conclusions that 2014 was the hottest year globally in the 134 years temperature records have been maintained. They contend it is part of a trend of increasing temperatures, largely attributable to humans pumping greenhouse gases such as car- bon dioxide into the atmosphere and trapping heat. Bosen, however, isn’t con- vinced man is to blame for climate change. Instead, he believes natural cycles may be the cause. And he’s not alone among Northwest farmers. According to a new survey funded by a USDA climate grant, more than half of 986 re- sponding Washington, Oregon and Idaho farmers strongly dis- agree with the premise that glob- al warming is human-caused, compared with 30 percent who agree. The survey also found that 39 percent believe glob- al temperatures are rising, 20 percent believe they will have to change farming methods be- cause of climate change and 70 percent have witnessed chang- es in weather patterns. The sur- veys were mailed in December of 2012, but results weren’t re- leased until this month. The American Farm Bu- reau Federation acknowledges the potential for more extreme weather, but share’s Bosen’s concerns that Mother Nature may have more to do with cli- mate change than mankind. In an October 2014 climate change policy paper, Farm Bu- reau opposed federal cap-and- trade programs, proposed En- vironmental Protection Agency emissions regulations for coal- fi red power plants and any “regulations that will increase costs for all Americans while not having a signifi cant effect on climate.” Warmest year? NASA and NOAA base their temperature estimates on a network of 6,300 weather stations, Antarctic research sta- tions and ocean readings from ships and buoys. They’ve declared that last year, propelled by record ocean temperatures and near-record land temperatures, beat out 2010 and 2005 for the warmest year by the slimmest of mar- gins — just one-hundredth of a degree in NASA’s case. They offered the caveat that there’s at least a 55 percent chance the highly touted record is invalid, based on the margin of error. NOAA concluded the aver- age global land and sea surface temperature in 2014 was 58.24 degrees, 1.24 degrees above the 20th century average. NASA’s Avg. annual temp. Mean avg. temp. 48.7 (45.1º F, 1901-2000) 49 Northwest average annual temperatures, 1895-2014 47.7º F — 2.6 degrees above the mean avg. 47 45 43 43.6 Source: NOAA, National Climatic Data Center a/ Alan Kenaga/Capital Press 42.3 41 ’95 1900 ’10 ’20 ’30 ’40 ’50 ’60 ’70 ’80 ’90 2000 ’10 ’14 Spud growers adjust to changing conditions By JOHN O’CONNELL Capital Press Western Idaho farmer Doug Gross has shifted to growing potato varieties that are water effi cient and can handle heat without quality problems. Concerned the state’s No. 1 spud variety may be ill-equipped to handle high- er summer temperatures, he hasn’t planted Russet Burbank in 15 years. He now relies on heat-resistant spud variet- ies such as Bannock Russet, Ranger Russet, Shepody and stress-tolerant lines of Russet Norkotah. From 2009 to 2013, Ida- ho’s average annual yield per acre increased by 4.9 hundred- weight, University of Idaho Extension economist Paul Pat- terson said. However, yields were down 0.4 hundredweight in southwest Idaho, the state’s hottest region, up only by 0.5 hundredweight in southcen- tral Idaho and up by 6.5 hun- dredweight in cooler Eastern Idaho. Patterson believes high 2014 estimate of 58.42 degrees was up 1.22 degrees compared with a baseline average of tem- peratures in the years spanning from 1951 to 1980. The agencies say the 10 warmest years on earth have all occurred since 2000, with the exception of 1998, and the planet has warmed by 1.4 de- grees since 1880. “This is the latest in a se- ries of warm years, in a series of warm decades,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “While the ranking of individual years can be affected by chaotic weather patterns, the long-term trends are attributable to drivers of climate change that are now dominated by human emissions of greenhouse gases.” Satellite data alone, however, told scientists with the Universi- ty of Alabama’s Earth System Science Center a somewhat dif- ferent story — that 2014, was the world’s third warmest year in the 36-year history of satellite summer temperatures have improved yields in Eastern Idaho but pushed the state’s western fi elds to the point of being too hot. “Yields of Washington state have also fl at-lined in re- cent years, and that’s because of this additional heat,” Patter- son said. According to the National Weather Ser- vice, Idaho’s average sum- mer tempera- ture was 0.3 degrees above average in Hoff 2009, a degree below average in 2010, 0.3 degrees below average in 2011, 2.4 degrees above average in 2012 and 3.7 degrees above average in 2013. When temperatures were a degree below average in 2010, however, southwestern yields bucked the trend and rose 50 hundredweight from the pre- vious year, while other Idaho counties saw yields shrink by 26 hundredweight, according to USDA. temperature data, but by such a slim margin as to be statistically insignifi cant. “2014 was warm but not spe- cial,” they wrote. University of Idaho clima- tologist John Abatzoglou, who authored research concluding man-made climate change has already occurred in the Northwest, acknowledges the 2014 temperature was a “pho- to fi nish” with 2010, 2005 and 1998, but he considers data from individual years to be “noise” within a long-term warming trend. In the continental U.S., NOAA calculates 2014 was the 33rd warmest year at 52.55 de- grees, still 0.53 degrees above the average since 1895, with the Midwest and East Coast expe- riencing cooler temperatures. Regionally, Idaho’s 45-degree average temperature was third warmest for that state, Washing- ton’s 48.4-degree average was fourth warmest, and Oregon’s 49.5-degree average was sec- Gross believes the experi- ence of recent years shows the sensitivity of Western Idaho potato farming to increased temperatures. “It does change our outlook on varieties we think we can grow viably in Western Idaho if the heat continues,” Gross said. “Something is obviously happening. I don’t really know what the cause is, but we’re bracing ourselves for warmer years in the future.” In Eastern Idaho, grower James Hoff said he’s noticed yields have been on the rise in the past few years. “Warmer summers are defi nitely helping us that way,” Hoff said. But Hoff has found too much heat can cause prob- lems, even in Eastern Idaho. For a long stretch of the sum- mer of 2012, Hoff said his re- gion didn’t get its usual cool nights, and quality problems such as high sugar ends sur- faced. “That’s always been Ida- ho’s key, that we have those long, warm days but we get ond warmest. California, with an average temperature of 61.5 degrees, was among four states that set records. According to the theory of global warming, as carbon di- oxide levels rise, more atmo- spheric water vapor is trapped, holding in heat. Polar ice begins to melt, darkening vast stretch- es of the planet’s landscape and causing it to absorb even more heat, which is stored in oceans and lends energy to more ex- treme weather events. Global cooling? Western Washington Uni- versity climate researcher Don Easterbrook understands cli- mate is constantly changing, but believes man-made warm- ing is “a hoax” and atmospher- ic carbon dioxide levels are too minute to cause any noticeable climate change. He studies satellite records, convinced the federal govern- ment’s political bias affects how NOAA and NASA adjust for data gaps and changes in circumstances. Easterbrook’s pick for the warmest year since 1880 is Abatzoglou 1934. Abatzoglou acknowledg- es no method is perfect, and NOAA and NASA must take changes such as development Mantua near weather sta- tions and station relocations into account. But he trusts the data. Easterbrook, whose research involves study- ing glaciers Eigenbrode and ice cores, said the climate reached 2-5 degrees warmer than now at the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago. De- tractors are quick to note the earth’s orbit came closer to the sun in those days. Easterbrook said the planet is still emerging from a little ice age that began in the year 1300. He’s mea- sured 40 periods since 1480 of cooling and warming, with most patterns lasting about three decades. He said the rate of warming from 1915 to 1945 was comparable to the warm- ing rate from 1978 to 2000. By contrast, Idaho State University paleo-climatologist Bruce Finney has observed in sediment cores from Central Washington’s Caster Lake that modern drought cycles in the region have lengthened to 50 years, about 20 years longer than 6,000 years ago. More recently, Easterbrook points to a fl attening tempera- ture trend, spiking in 1998 and either dropping or rising by statistically insignifi cant levels since then. “It’s been getting cooler, which is exactly what I pre- dicted,” said Easterbrook, one of 32,000 American scientists who signed the Oregon Insti- tute of Science and Medicine’s petition agreeing no evidence supports man-made warming. “There’s been no global warm- ing in the past 18 years.” Easterbrook argued long- term models predicting a steep warming trend — NOAA fore- casts that global temperature will rise by at least 3.6 degrees, and possibly more than 5.4 degrees, by the year 2100, for example — have been off by a full degree in the past decade and have been proven to be “to- tally worthless.” At least along the West Coast, former University of Washington climate researcher Nate Mantua and a colleague concluded wind direction, af- fected by oceanic conditions, has been the major driver of temperature fl uctuations. Glob- ally, however, Mantua is con- vinced human-caused warming is real. “There’s a lot of work to that shows by the 2030s and 2040s, global warming from human causes will start to be the domi- nant player, even in the region,” Mantua said. “Looking back, the dominant player in the re- gion is this wind pattern.” Impact on wheat Abatzoglou is part of a study now in its fourth year involving UI, Washington State Universi- ty, Oregon State University and USDA’s Agricultural Research Service in Pullman, Wash. The grant, through USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture, awards $4 million per year to understand how cli- mate change could impact the Northwest wheat industry, and how growers should adjust. The researchers conclude the Northwest now has two more weeks of freeze-free season than a century ago, and annu- al low temperatures have risen 5-8 degrees. The longer season and addi- tional atmospheric carbon diox- ide — now 400 parts per mil- lion compared with 320 parts per million in 1960 — should lead to slightly increased wheat yields, according to grant-fund- ed crop modeling, but moisture is expected to shift from sum- mer toward winter, with more falling as rain than snow. The researchers say growers will adapt by using more no-till farming and other practices that improve soil health and water retention, or conserve nitrogen that could be converted into a greenhouse gas. Abatzoglou said the preva- lence of extreme precipitation events should increase, raising the risk of catastrophic crop losses, and crops will likely be under more heat stress. Inva- sive weeds could fi nd an edge in a warmer climate, and go to seed faster, and there may be more insect reproduction cycles each season. OSU Extension climate spe- cialist John Stevenson is com- pleting a study on how climate change may affect water stor- age in Idaho’s Big Wood River system. He foresees peak fl ows shifting from spring to late win- ter, which could affect water availability for farmers using natural fl ows, or those with in- suffi cient storage. The head of the grant team, UI entomologist Sanford Ei- genbrode, has studied climate affects on aphids, which seem to respond to warming in dif- ferent ways depending on the species, and cereal leaf bee- tles, which he fears may thrive as predatory parasitoid wasps struggle with warmer springs. “Forest pests almost univer- sally get worse as it gets warm- er,” Eigenbrode said. “Ag pests go every which way as it gets warmer, making it necessary to look at each one and try and un- derstand it.” Eigenbrode predicts more farmers will shift toward winter wheat to better utilize winter moisture and take advantage of warmer winters. He fears dry- land farms “growing at the lim- its” of precipitation may have challenging years ahead as sum- mers become hotter and drier. “As climates change, farm- ing needs to adapt and change,” Eigenbrode said. “The goal of this project is to help do that in the smartest way possible.” ‘If the department overreaches, there is recourse’ DOL from Page 1 Tim Bernasek, attorney for the growers, said his clients are relieved the dispute has fi nally ended and are satisfi ed with the settlement terms. “They are very appreciative of the support the industry has given them,” Bernasek said. Capital Press was unable to reach DOL for comment. The Oregon Farm Bureau hopes the controversy will dis- courage the agency from us- ing similar strong-arm tactics against other farmers in the fu- ture. “This is a demonstration there are checks and balances,” said Dave Dillon, OFB’s exec- utive vice president. “If the de- partment overreaches, there is recourse.” The dispute was sparked in 2012, when the agency claimed the farmers had paid pickers less than the minimum wage and threatened to block their ship- ments of blueberries as unlaw- fully harvested “hot goods.” Rather than fi ght DOL’s fi nd- ings in court — and risk losing millions of dollars of fruit — the growers agreed to pay $220,000 in alleged back wages and pen- alties so the agency would lift its “hot goods” objection. Last year, however, a feder- al judge overturned those con- sent decrees because they had been signed under economic duress by the farmers, who had to waive their right to challenge DOL’s minimum wage violation claims. When those deals were overturned, the farmers were prepared to fi ght the DOL’s al- legations that they employed unrecorded “ghost workers” who helped other pickers har- vest berries. Because pickers are paid on a piece rate, the agency claimed they received less than the minimum wage. Agency records uncovered by the Oregon Farm Bureau showed that DOL based its ac- cusations on a formula that as- sumed pickers who harvested more than a certain amount of blueberries per hour were assist- ed by such “ghost workers.” The Farm Bureau claimed the formula was fl awed, since workers can actually pick much larger amounts, and said DOL had scant evidence of wrongdo- ing by the growers. Records show that DOL was unable to identify the vast ma- jority of the 1,000 “ghost work- ers” that it claimed worked at the farms. Even so, the legal dispute between DOL and the farmers threatened to escalate last year. The agency argued that it couldn’t return $73,500 that had already been disbursed to work- ers while the farms demanded full repayment and $150,000 in damages for diminished fruit quality. DOL also refi led complaints against the farms, adding new charges of wrongdoing going back farther in time and naming additional defendants. In November 2014, though, the agency asked for the litiga- tion to be delayed because it had entered settlement talks with the growers. The recent decision to settle marks a reversal of DOL’s pre- vious strategy of escalation, said Dillon. “They chose to take the more diffi cult and less reasonable path at every turn,” he said. DOL was probably con- vinced to reassess its approach due to pressure from members of Congress and the media, sev- eral setbacks in federal court, as well as the weakness of the agency’s case against the farm- ers, Dillon said. “I think at some point the de- partment realized there’s no win here and it will only get worse if they continue,” he said. 118-bird fl ock in Washington infected with H5N2 avian infl uenza was euthanized BIRD from Page 1 In Washington, a non-com- mercial, 118-bird fl ock in Port Angeles infected with highly pathogenic H5N2 avian infl u- enza, was euthanized Jan. 19, according to the Washington State Department of Agricul- ture. WSDA spokesman Hector Castro said the fl ock’s owner contacted the agency last week after a Sebastopol goose, a domestic species, died. Other birds, which included chick- ens, showed signs of sickness, Castro said. WSDA and U.S. Depart- ment of Agriculture offi cials confi rmed the fl ock was in- fected with bird fl u. The USDA will compensate the owner. Castro said the fl ock’s owner recently sold birds that were introduced to a fl ock in Neah Bay, also in Clal- lam County on the Olympic Peninsula. Birds in that fl ock tested negative for bird fl u, he said. Guinea fowl and chickens in a backyard fl ock in Winston in Douglas County, Ore., were euthanized in mid-December after highly pathogenic H5N8 bird fl u broke out. H5N8 and H5N2 viruses are closely re- lated. Until last month, highly pathogenic bird fl u had never been documented in Washing- ton or Oregon. Bird fl u has not struck any U.S. commercial fl ock, but 245,600 birds at 11 infected poultry farms in British Co- lumbia, Canada, were culled from Dec. 1 to 17. Barton urged domestic bird owners to keep their flocks away from wild wa- terfowl. Avian influenza symp- toms include coughing, sneezing, respiratory distress, decreased egg production, swelling of the head, comb and wattles and sudden death.