SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2022
FROM PAGE ONE
THE OBSERVER — A3
BENEFITS
SEPT. 1 DOUBLE
CREEK FIRE
EVACUATION
NOTICES
Continued from Page A1
Nebo and Sturgill ﬁ res
are “doing a lot of good in
terms of cleaning up fuels.”
According to the
national forest’s leader-
ship team, they are closely
monitoring the conditions
of the Nebo Fire, and ﬁ re-
ﬁ ghters are preparing
containment features on
nearby road and trail sys-
tems to protect adjacent
structures, including Big
Sheep Camp, Lick Creek
Guard Station and Indian
Crossing Campground.
Total containment of
both ﬁ res is expected to
occur in late October.
“Keeping them in the
wilderness is the main
objective at this point,”
Burks said.
Burks understands the
concern that arises when
it comes to wildﬁ res, but
there’s a public education
component to acknowledge
as well. Putting out every
forest ﬁ re would lead to an
unhealthy ecosystem, he
said.
“These are ﬁ re-adap-
tive ecosystems, and if we
suppress every ﬁ re, we’re
just going to have bigger
and worse ﬁ res,” he said.
“We’re just kicking the can
down the road.”
Burks explained that
a healthy forest contains
mature, tall trees without
much ground fuel — lower
layer growth such as roots,
downed trees, branches,
EVACUATE
Continued from Page A1
Wallowa-Whitman
National Forest, said
there are multiple bull-
dozers, ﬁ re trucks and air-
craft battling the blaze.
From the town of Imnaha,
smoke is easily visible up
the Imnaha River canyon,
but the town itself does
not appear threatened.
“The main focus is
keeping folks safe,”
Anderson said.
Wallowa County Com-
missioner Todd Nash said
he and his fellow com-
missioners are keeping
informed of the progress
of ﬁ ghting the ﬁ re. He
The Wallowa County Sheriﬀ
issued a change in the evacua-
tion levels for the Double Creek
Fire area beginning Thursday,
Sept. 1. The new levels are:
• Level 3, “Go Now” evacuation
for the Hat Point Road. The Hat
Point Road is also closed due to
the ﬁ re activity.
• Level 2, “Get Set” for the
Imnaha River Road, from Rip-
pleton Creek to the Imnaha
Grange, including Freezeout
Road.
• Level 1, “Be Ready” for the
Imnaha River Road, from the
town of Imnaha to Rippleton
Creek.
• Level 1, “Be Ready” for the
Imnaha River Road, from the
Imnaha Grange to the Pallette
Ranch, including Imnaha River
Woods.
U.S. Forest Service/Contributed Photo
The Sturgill Fire, sparked by lightning on Monday, Aug. 22, 2022, is burning near the North Minam River in the Eagle Cap Wilderness northeast
of Baker City.
crews and ﬁ reﬁ ghters.
This ﬁ re was ﬁ rst
detected on Aug. 30 along
Hat Point Road near Grizzly
Ridge. The 1,500-acre
blaze, which was also likely
sparked by lightning, carries
more concern because of its
proximity to residences.
As of Thursday, Sept.
1, the ﬁ re was at zero per-
cent containment. Almost
130 personnel are working
to protect private property
and resources threatened by
the ﬁ re.
“It is growing and it’ll
probably grow today,”
Burkes noted during a Sept.
1 interview. “But we’re
working with our partners
to put that one out.”
logs and undergrowth.
This healthy condition
would normally be a result
of yearly ﬁ res that keep
forests “actively clean.”
Due to continued sup-
pression eﬀ orts, Burks
said, small trees and
undergrowth have gotten
out of control, making
it hard to see through
the forest and providing
ample fuel for ﬁ res. This
is where naturally occur-
ring wildﬁ res — like the
Sturgill and Nebo ﬁ res
— can come in handy. By
allowing these blazes to
burn, “ﬁ re breaks” are cre-
ated that can help mitigate
future ﬁ res.
“You’ll see some
intense burning out of
these two ﬁ res, but after-
ward you have this area
that is more free and open
from all that fuel,” he said.
Fireﬁ ghters are working
to maintain adjacent pri-
vate property and inhold-
ings within the Wal-
lowa-Whitman National
Forest — including Red’s
Horse Ranch and Minam
River Lodge. The expected
ﬁ re increase has prompted
said it appears the blaze is
being contained.
“These ﬁ res in the wil-
derness (are) making quite
a lot of smoke,” he said,
“but so far they’re staying
within bounds Forest Ser-
vice hoped they would.”
He noted that ﬁ res are
not unusual for the region.
“They call them the
Blue Mountains because
when the wagon trains
came through, people
looked over their shoulders
and the country always
looked blue because it was
always on ﬁ re,” he said.
Part of the problem
with ﬁ res in recent years,
Nash said, is forest
management.
“That’s in an allot-
ment that should’ve been
grazed,” the rancher said.
“It’s unfortunate that
there’s all that grass that
should’ve been grazed
that’s helping to carry that
ﬁ re right now.”
But, he said, ﬁ re is part
of the natural process in
the wilderness.
“The positive thing
about the ﬁ res is that they
consume some of the
fuel,” he said.
Nash said he was aware
of bits of ash that fell on
Enterprise Aug. 31 as a
large cloud of smoke came
up to the southeast from
the Sturgill and Nebo ﬁ res.
“There were big chunks
of black material with the
ash,” he said.
Smoke is easily visible Thursday, Sept. 1, 2022, alongside the Imnaha Highway near Imnaha, although the
ﬁ re is miles away from town.
several trail closures until
further notice.
Fire suppression
The Double Creek Fire,
Burks noted, is a diﬀ erent
story. He called the blaze
an “active ﬁ re suppression
incident” and noted that
full suppression eﬀ orts are
underway, including air
tankers, helicopters, rappel
Bill Bradshaw/Wallowa County Chieftain
Equipment Purchases • Operating Lines
ECONOMY
Continued from Page A1
optimistic “baseline”
forecast, economists say
Oregon will see $600 mil-
lion more in the current
two-year budget cycle than
they anticipated just three
months ago, an increase
largely driven by per-
sonal income taxes. That
would result in Oregonians
receiving a record $3.46 bil-
lion back in the form of the
kicker, the unique Oregon
policy that returns personal
income taxes if they come
in at least 2% higher than
initial forecasts.
“The numbers to date
have not weakened whatso-
ever,” McMullen told law-
makers of corporate taxes.
“But this is terrifying.
Along with capital gains,
this is our most volatile part
of the revenue forecast.”
The more optimistic sce-
nario is less bullish in future
years when it predicts rev-
enue growth will be much
slower than expected in
May. Economists now say
each of the next three two-
year budget cycles could see
revenues more than $600
million lower than projected
earlier.
Just as likely, econo-
mists said, is the possibility
that Oregon will enter into
a “mild recession” toward
the end of 2023. The risk,
Lehner said, is that surging
wages driven by an unsus-
tainably hot labor market
will continue to drive inﬂ a-
tion, which could prompt
the federal government to
further increase interest
rates, triggering a down-
turn and a big increase in
the state’s low unemploy-
ment rate.
“We need to see the labor
market cool,” Lehner said.
If Oregon does enter
into a recession, economists
say Oregon will still see
roughly $50 million more
Time to Plan for
Next Season!
Salem Statesman Journal, File
Oregon state economists on Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2022, delivered
their most serious warning in years — the state’s surging revenue
growth is about to end.
than previously expected in
the budget cycle that runs
through June 2023. But they
say revenues for the next
two biennial budgets come
in at $1.2 billion and $1.4
billion lower than previous
estimates.
“Should this unfold, it
would mean large program
cuts,” McMullen said. “It
would be unavoidable.”
The question for law-
makers, who will craft a
new two-year budget in next
year’s legislative session, is
how to incorporate the com-
peting forecasts. McMullen
and Lehner suggested they
operate under the more opti-
mistic version for now, rea-
soning that unnecessarily
chopping state services is
not ideal.
“We kind of have to wait
until we see the white of
the recession’s eyes before
we put in these kinds of
drastic revenue reductions,”
McMullen said.
But underestimating
a potential revenue cliﬀ
brings its own risks. Long-
time State Sen. Lee Beyer
said the looming scenario
reminded him of 2002 when
lawmakers met in ﬁ ve spe-
cial sessions to continuously
revise the budget amid a
tanking economy.
“From past experience,
I think it’s time that people
who will be there need to
take a cautionary look at it,”
said Beyer, who is retiring
when his term expires at the
end of the year.
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