OREGON
A8 — THE OBSERVER
THURSDAY, AUGUST 25, 2022
Political center rates Oregon gubernatorial race a ‘toss-up’
The rating change coincides with new
polling showing that abortion is galvanizing
some Democrats toward Tina Kotek
By LYNNE TERRY
Oregon Capital Chronicle
SALEM — A nonpar-
tisan political center has
changed its prediction for
Oregon’s three-way guber-
natorial race from “leans
Democrat” to “toss-up.”
The University of Vir-
ginia’s Center for Poli-
tics made the announce-
ment Thursday, saying that
“despite the state’s blue lean
and the fact that Republi-
cans have not won a guber-
natorial race there since
1982” when the late Gov.
Vic Atiyeh won reelection,
it considers the race to be
open. It said the competition
among progressive Demo-
crat Tina Kotek, Republican
Christine Drazan and non-
affi liated candidate Betsy
Johnson, who all served in
the state Legislature, had
created an unusual dynamic.
The center noted that
Johnson, though a former
Democrat, is “more con-
servative than most of the
members of her former
party” and had garnered the
support of Nike co-founder
Phil Knight, who typically
backs Republicans.
“The race sets up an
unusual situation where
the winner may not need to
crack even 40%,” the center
said, noting that outgoing
Gov. Kate Brown, a Dem-
ocrat, “is deeply unpop-
ular, and there may be some
desire for change in the
Beaver State.”
The center said Johnson
“would still be the most sur-
prising winner, and Kotek
and Drazan both will be
working to try to prevent
their voters from fl ocking
to her banner. There’s just
enough uncertainty here
that we’re looking at the
race as a toss-up now.”
The other states that the
center considers a toss-up
in the governor’s race are
Arizona, Nevada, Kansas
and Wisconsin. Demo-
cratic governors are running
for re-election in Kansas,
Nevada and Wisconsin,
while Arizona has an open
race in a state where Repub-
licans have held the gover-
norship since 2009.
The Cook Report, which
also keeps a close eye
on key races nationwide,
changed its rating for Ore-
gon’s gubernatorial race on
July 22 from “likely Dem-
ocrat” to “lean Democrat.”
Political forecasting site
FiveThirtyEight, meanwhile,
still gives Kotek better than
seven in 10 odds of winning
the governorship.
Political analyst John
Horvick, senior vice pres-
ident at DHM Research,
a nonpartisan opinion
research fi rm, said little
has changed in the race
recently to prompt a change
of rating.
“I think they’re just
catching up with the fact
that Betsy Johnson is a real
credible candidate that’s got
money behind her and that’s
going to have an infl uence
on the race,” Horvick said.
In terms of fundraising,
Johnson is ahead, according
to the Portland Record. She
has drawn $10.2 million,
including $466,000 to date
from Tim Boyle, CEO of
Columbia Sportswear, and
$1.75 million from Knight.
Kotek has raised nearly $6.8
million, followed by $6 mil-
lion for Drazan.
Voters are also
responding to issues, Hor-
vick said. Polling by DHM
Research last week which
has not yet been released
showed that the U.S.
Supreme Court decision
overturning Roe v. Wade,
rescinding the constitu-
Jaime Valdez/Pamplin Media
Republican nominee Christine Drazan, left, and unaffi liated candidate Betsy Johnson, right, listen
to Democratic nominee Tina Kotek speak during a governor candidates’ debate hosted by Oregon
Newspaper Publishers Association at Mount Hood Oregon Resort on Friday, July 29, 2022, in Welches.
tional guarantee of abortion
rights, is galvanizing some
Democrats.
“There is a big change
with Democrats and abor-
tion,” Horvick said. “In
January, just 1% of Dem-
ocrats said abortion is the
most important issue in the
gubernatorial election. Now
16% of Democrats say it’s
the most important issue,”
Horvick said.
Kotek has long supported
abortion rights, including
the decision by the Legisla-
ture this February to allo-
cate $15 million to help
women access abortion
care. Drazan opposes abor-
tion but she has said she
would follow Oregon’s laws
placing no restrictions on
abortions. Johnson has also
consistently supported abor-
tion rights, though she dis-
approved of the Legisla-
ture giving money to help
women from out of state
access care.
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Nevertheless, Democrats
concerned about abortion
access seem to think Kotek
is a safer choice, Horvick
said.
“I really think among
those wavering Democrats
that they have responded to
the issue of abortion and are
coming back home,” Hor-
vick said.
He said two-thirds of
Oregon voters support abor-
tion rights when asked about
abortion in general. But
nearly 60% say they would
support a ban on abortions
in the third trimester except
to protect the life of the
mother.
“There is more nuance in
public opinion than perhaps
we’ll see in the next two and
half months,” Horvick said.
His recent polling also
showed that a majority of
Oregon voters place them-
selves on just to the left
of center, which he said is
favorable for Johnson.
“Betsy Johnson seems
to be getting that message
across where she fi ts ideo-
logically,” Horvick said.
“That’s a success and an
opportunity for her.”
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