3B
Saturday, June 20, 2020
The Observer & Baker City Herald
Scientists fear COVID-19 death rate will rise
■ Daily death toll has dropped over the past two weeks, but the rate of new infections has increased during that period
will rise. Hospitalizations will
then go up and, fi nally, so will
Associated Press
deaths.
The number of deaths per
Several factors are believed
day from the coronavirus in
to
be pushing the curves for
— Ali Mokdad, professor
the U.S. has fallen in recent
deaths
and cases in opposite
of health metrics sciences,
weeks to the lowest level since
directions.
University of Washington
late March, even as states
Rising case numbers can
increasingly reopen for busi-
be higher. Potential vaccines
partially be explained by the
ness. But scientists are deeply
are in early stages of testing, wider availability of testing.
afraid the trend may be about
and it is unlikely any will be
Mild cases, previously unde-
to reverse itself.
ready before early next year. tected because of limits on
“For now, it’s too soon to
Experts note that a rise in who could be tested, are now
be reassured that deaths are
deaths could take awhile to
showing up in the numbers.
going down and everything’s
show up in the U.S. statistics.
As for the drop in deaths,
OK,” said Dr. Cyrus Shahpar
Stay-at-home orders imposed “it is probably several things
of Resolve to Save Lives, a
in March, combined with the happening at once,” said Dr.
nonprofi t organization that
use of face masks and other
Shmuel Shoham, a professor
works to prevent epidemics.
social-distancing measures,
of medicine at Johns Hopkins
Deaths from COVID-19
have been bringing down the University School of Medicine.
Centers For Disease Control And Prevention daily death toll since mid-
across the country are down
Lessons learned from the
to about 680 a day, compared A COVID-19 particle.
April, and the U.S. as a whole “awful early days” are now
with around 960 two weeks
is still seeing the positive ef-
benefi ting the severely sick
ago, according to an Associ-
But already there are warn- health metrics sciences at the fects, even though people are and people in nursing homes,
ated Press analysis of data
ing signs.
University of Washington in
starting to work, shop and eat Shoham said.
compiled by Johns Hopkins
For one thing, the number Seattle.
out again.
It looks that way in Wash-
University. The analysis
of newly confi rmed cases per
“These are not numbers.
Doctors watching for an
ington state’s King County,
looked at a seven-day rolling day has risen from about
These are human beings,”
uptick in deaths will be on
where the fi rst nursing home
average of deaths through
21,400 two weeks ago to
Mokdad said. “We’re going to the alert for certain signals
outbreak in the U.S. killed 45
Wednesday.
23,200, the AP analysis found. see a rise in deaths in many
to emerge in a specifi c order,
people at the Life Care Center
A multitude of reasons are
And in Florida, Georgia,
places in the United States.”
Shahpar said.
in suburban Seattle. County
believed to be at play, includ- Texas and Arizona — states
The outbreak has killed
First, cellphone data will
data shows deaths in similar
ing the advent of effective
that loosened their stay-
about 118,000 people in the
show people moving around
facilities declining over the
treatments and improved ef- at-home restrictions early
U.S. and nearly a half-million more. Next, doctors will
past two months. And no
forts at hospitals and nursing — daily deaths have been qui- worldwide, according to Johns report more fl u-like illnesses, single facility in the county
homes to prevent infections
etly rising since early June,
Hopkins’ count, though the
and the proportion of people
has come close to the death
and save lives.
said Ali Mokdad, professor of real numbers are believed to testing positive for the virus
toll at Life Care, which was
By Carla K. Johnson and
Nicky Forster
“We’re going to see a rise
in deaths in many places
in the United States.”
struck unaware.
While it is unclear how
much specifi c treatments
may have contributed to the
decline in deaths, doctors are
trying antivirals such as rem-
desivir, plasma donated from
people who have recovered
from the virus and steroids
such as dexamethasone,
which grabbed attention this
week with reports confi rming
it can save the lives of many
of the sickest patients.
While all viruses mutate,
scientists say the coronavirus
so far is not changing in a way
that has made it less deadly.
The decline in deaths this
spring might well be tied
in part to warmer weather
as people spend more time
outdoors where circulating air
disperses the virus. But that
does not bode well for the U.S.
come this fall and winter.
Mokdad noted that deaths
are on the rise in the South-
ern Hemisphere, where it’s
now winter.
“This virus is going to
have a second wave. It’s go-
ing to follow the pattern of
pneumonia,” he said. “What
we’re seeing in the Southern
Hemisphere will be happen-
ing here.”
Worst thing about masks? Not wearing them, experts say
protests against that state’s corona-
virus lockdown earlier this spring,
In a widely circulated video
also worries about CO 2 and masks.
clip from a hearing last week on
She wears a mask only when she
mandatory mask wearing in Or-
has to and even then “forces the
ange County, California, an angry
issue.”
woman told offi cials she feared
Initially seen as a nonpartisan
that masks made her re-breathe
way to fi ght the coronavirus, masks
her own carbon dioxide, a waste
are now part of this country’s
product when we exhale.
culture wars, a focal point in battles
“You’re telling me that I have to
over the balance among safety,
breathe in CO 2 when God gave this personal freedom and economic
body the ability to extract that from well-being. The president resists
my body, and now you want me to
wearing them and so do some
put it back in my body,” she said.
Republican lawmakers. House
After the hearing, the county
Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednes-
changed the requirement to a
day required that masks be worn
recommendation. Then the state on during committee meetings after
Thursday required masks in most some Republicans refused to do so.
settings outside the home.
Henry Fraimow, an infectious
Donna Lea Merritt, a Pennsylva- disease doctor at Cooper University
nia woman who attended several
Hospital, said he heard of health
By Stacey Burling
The Philadelphia Inquirer
care workers who were worried
in March and April about breath-
ing problems from mask use. “It’s
picked up a life of its own,” he said.
Russell Blaylock, a retired Missis-
sippi neurosurgeon who now does
nutrition research and edits the
Blaylock Wellness Report, has writ-
ten that masks can affect intake of
both oxygen and carbon dioxide as
well as immune functioning.
Infectious disease experts said
masks are an imperfect defense
against the coronavirus but
evidence has mounted that, when
combined with social distancing,
eye protection, and frequent hand
washing, they can slow its spread.
Their primary benefi t is not to an
individual wearer, but to others.
When a mask wearer coughs,
sneezes, or simply breathes, the
mask acts as a barrier that blocks
the fl ight of virus-laden droplets.
“A lot of the droplets never make
it out, and then the ones that do
don’t go very far,” Fraimow said.
This is especially important in
a disease where people without
symptoms can spread the virus.
Without symptoms, there’s no way
to know when to stay away from
others, so, the thinking goes, we
should all assume we might be sick
and wear a mask.
As for oxygen and CO 2 , infectious
disease specialists said there’s no
evidence to support the idea that
cloth and surgical masks — the
blue rectangular masks typically
worn by nurses and doctors — lead
to breathing problems. They don’t
fi t tightly enough to impede air fl ow
or trap carbon dioxide.
“We don’t have ERs full of people
who wore a mask and became
sick because they were wearing
a mask,” said William Schaffner,
an infectious diseases specialist
at Vanderbilt University Medical
Center.
N95 masks are more compli-
cated. They are better at fi ltering
tiny viruses than the other masks
and fi t tightly against the face.
There is some evidence that N95s
can lead to changes in oxygen and
carbon dioxide levels when used for
long periods, especially by people
who are obese or have chronic lung
issues.
Schaffner said CO 2 is not the big
issue with masks.
“The big issue with masks,” he
said, “is that people aren’t wearing
them.”
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CELEBRATE RECOVERY
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EVERY THURSDAY
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DO YOU HAVE....
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and/or HANG UPS?
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3720 Birch St. Baker City
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Start at 8 PM
Episcopal Church Basement
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Joseph, OR
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Contact Judith at
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Meetings resume @GRH
when restrictions ease.
ALZHEIMERS-DEMENTIA
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