Commentary
Oregon Daily Emerald
Thursday, October 21, 2004
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■ In my opinion
77 TT7/^T electoral
-LjJJEVjI college
L/uuiig me past niorim or two, i ve
followed presidential election projec
tions on MSN Slate Magazine’s Elec
toral Scorecard (slate.msn.com) and
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
(www. electoral-vote, com).
Both sites venture their current best
guesses for the winner using the same
simple process: Collect the most recent
poll for each of the 50 states (and
Washington D.C., which is so thor
oughly Democratic that it needs no
polls to determine which candidate will
see its votes). Then, assign each state’s
electoral votes to whichever candidate
the poll shows is ahead in that state.
(Slate sometimes appeals to judgment
calls in places factoring in several
recent polls, but the idea is the same.)
Finally, total the electoral votes that
each candidate gets. Whichever candi
date gets the most votes is predicted —
for that day — as the winner.
On Oct. 15, President Bush led Sena
tor John Kerry 284-228 electoral votes
(55 percent of the assigned electoral
votes), according to Vote Predictor. But
by Tliesday, Kerry topped Bush 284-247
(53 percent). How could such a com
monsense system show an eight-point
swing over only four days when the na
tional polls have shown the candidates
in a steady statistical tie? Because of
that age-old political monstrosity: the
Electoral College.
The key factor in Vote Predictor’s
dramatic change of heart is a recent
TRAVIS WILLSE
RIVALLESS WIT
poll: An Oct. 15-17 Survey USA poll
now puts Kerry ahead 50-49 in Florida,
edging the Sunshine State’s 27 electoral
votes from the red into the blue col
umn. That’s enough for a 54-vote
swing in Kerry’s favor. (I use the term
favor very loosely, as the one-point gap
is swallowed by the poll’s 4 percent
margin of error, leaving the race a sta
tistical dead heat.)
We saw in 2000, of course, that this
numerical caprice isn’t restricted to
projections. The will of a fickle elec
torate, coupled with the college’s win
ner-take-all system (well, in every
state except Maine and Nebraska, and
maybe Colorado this fall), means that
a handful of voters — say, 537 of
them — can render the political inten
tions of millions silent.
Worse, because the gap between
vote totals within states is usually
much narrower than the difference in
votes that each candidate receives na
tionally, individual states, and thus the
Electoral College system, are more sen
sitive to problems like voter fraud, dis
enfranchisement, and ambiguous bal
lots. (Florida, of course, suffered all
three of these problems. Any of them
could have accounted for Bush’s razor
thin margin of victory, meaning the
state — and thus the presidency —
could have plausibly been former Vice
President A1 Gore’s.)
The solution to this is straightfor
ward and simple: Dump the Electoral
College, and institute a presidential
election by popular vote. The Electoral
College had some merit when it was
created by the Constitution’s framers. It
was a compromise between the (nas
cent) national government and state
governments; it was a way to ensure
that candidates from everywhere in the
nation were considered, and some even
argued that a popular election was
technically unfeasible.
These considerations and others are
now either moot or much less impor
tant than they were in the 1780s. At any
rate, they’re certainly less compelling
than the best reason for ejecting the col
lege: It’s possible (as happened in
2000) that the winner of the electoral
vote (the inbound president) isn’t the
winner of the popular vote. And a
democracy that doesn’t reflect the elec
toral will of the majority runs the risk of
being an illegitimate one.
traviswillse@ daily emerald, com
INBOX
Bush needs to take action
to rescue Sudan refugees
Open letter to President George W.
Bush,
1 am deeply concerned about the
two million refugees from Sudan
who were driven from their homes
by their own government to die in
the deserts of Chad. Over 60,000
have been killed and more die each
day. Several humanitarian
organizations are doing all they can
to help but they are overwhelmed.
I plead with you as president of the
most powerful nation of earth to take
irrlmediate action to rescue these peo
ple. Show the world our country’s hu
mane face.
First, in consultation with the Unit
ed Nations, NATO and neighboring
Middle East and African countries,
launch a massive airlift (like your fa
ther did for the Kurds in Iraq) to sup
ply the 22 refugee camps with tempo
rary shelter, food, water, clothing and
medical supplies.
Second, with the U.N., tell the Su
danese government that you will im
mediately start returning all refugees
to their homes. Tell them you will
help them rebuild their lives (homes,
herds, schools, medical care) and will
guarantee their future security for as
long as it takes.
It is a moral imperative that this be
done without delay.
Robert C. Sabin
Eugene
Kerry/Edwards campaign
shows poor judgement
John Kerry and John Edwards' vote
against the $87 billion would not only
have adversely affected our troops,
but also Iraqi reconstruction. This
vote seriously undermines 50 years of
successful U.S. foreign policy. Kerry
has made a huge issue of the presi
dent's post-war handling of Iraq, and
he talks about the importance of win
ning the peace, but Kerry lacks the
judgment to get this done.
The $87 billion wasn't only for our
troops, but also for the reconstruction
of Iraq. We won the peace in Japan
and Germany following WWII be
cause we dumped money into these
countries and showed our good will
towards them by rebuilding them.
This is what the U.S. does. We don’t
"spread misery around the world" as
Michael Moore would have us be
lieve. We don't seize territory after
war, as other nations. We use our own
money to rebuild them without any
expectation of return. We are the most
noble nation on earth and Kerry vot
ed against this policy (he actually
showed up for this vote ... that shows
you how much he must have cared
about this issue).
This greatly illustrates a serious
lack of good judgment on behalf of
the would-be president from Massa
chusetts.
Abraham Taylor
Washington, D.C.
Write-in campaign to teach
Distric Attorney a lesson
Write-in Charles 0. Porter for Lane
County District Attorney and send a
message to F. Douglass Harcleroad.
Porter is not a candidate for District
Attorney and not likely to serve if
elected. But there are important rea
sons to write that name on the ballot:
To honor a great man and to suggest
a lesson to another man.
This is not merely a protest vote.
This is a practical and effective action, a
necessary response to events which oc
curred after the May primary election.
Harcleroad’s manipulation of the politi
cal process with a surprise sabbatical
and expedient executive appointment
of a chosen successor to the elected of
fice he just semi-abdicated, which must
be considered in the context of the
many misjudgments of his tenure.
This will not be a wasted vote.
Charles O. Porter deserves recognition.
Even after a long life of various and
monumental accomplishments, to re
cently still have the courage and facts
for a serious attempt to impeach the
United States Supreme Court, clearly
shows that he merits in his honor a rab
ble-rousing display of voter revolt.
The election starts now with the
mail-in ballots, so make a few phone
calls, compose e-mails, hand out flyers,
stand on a comer with a sign, take out
an ad, have a party, or whatever active
magic that you do to spread the word.
Bernard Nickerson
Eugene
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•A
■ Editorial
John Kerry
for president,
regardless
U.S. President - John Kerry (D)
There are a lot of negative things to say about
President Bush, and a lot of negative things to say
about Sen. Kerry, but we prefer to focus on the
positive. Kerry’s promise of a more cautious, de
liberate foreign policy is enticing and America
will be safer for it. We agree with Kerry’s health
care and education proposals, especially his Ser
vice for College initiative. He wasn’t our first, sec
ond, third or even 10th choice, but we are willing
to give him four years to prove he can keep his
promises. The Emerald reluctantly endorses John
Kerry for president.
U.S. Senate - Ron Wyden (D)
It is hard not to vote for Wyden when the man
running against him is A1 King, a rude, right-wing
windbag who wants to destroy the Education De
partment. Wyden has experience in the Senate
and a vision for bringing nanotechnology and
green-energy industries to Oregon, which will be
good for the University and the state.
Oregon Secretary of State -
no endorsement
Bill Bradbury showed his true partisan colors
during his mishandling of the Nader ballot con
troversy. The last thing we need is a partisan
politician in control of the state’s electoral system.
Unfortunately, we are more afraid of challenger
Betsy Close’s partisanship, so she is a poor alter
native. Libertarian candidate Richard Morley says
all the right things in his platform but lacks expe
rience. Therefore, the Emerald will not offer an
endorsement for this race.
U.S. Representative, 4th District -
Peter DeFazio (D)
DeFazio is a senior representative that offers
strong leadership, an understanding of issues and
the ability to get things done. Jim Feldkamp has
no experience and lacks a firm grasp on the is
sues, simply parroting the current administra
tion’s policies. This is not a tough choice.
Oregon State Treasurer -
Jeff Caton (R)
Professional money manager Jeff Caton recog
nizes the PERS crisis and the danger of keeping
taxpayer money in poor investments and holds
the government to the same standards it expects
of private sector businesses. He has little govern
ment experience so we’ll keep an eye on him if
he wins. It would be nice to have someone in of
fice who has a realistic view of the financial quag
mire Oregon has been in for the last three years.
Oregon Attorney General -
Hardy Myers (D)
Hardy Myers is a seasoned attorney general, re
spected even by his critics and endorsed by liber
als and conservatives alike, even Oregon’s county
district attorneys. The eight-year incumbent does
not play partisan politics, a claim we do not feel
comfortable making about his challenger Paul
Connolly, a lawyer for the Oregon GOP.
Oregon Senate, District 4 -
Floyd Prozanski (D)
Incumbent Floyd Prozanski has experience
and broad support. Also, education is his top pri
ority, which gives him points in our book. We
look forward to him going on to bigger and better
things when he is termed out of the state senate.
Oregon House, District 8 -
Paul Holvey (D)
State Representative Paul Holvey doesn’t say
much (especially when it comes to education)
and is endorsed by all the people you’d expect
him to be endorsed by. Even so, his competition
fails to impress. We’ll go with Holvey’s experi
ence for now and wait for him to be termed out.