Kerry wins Texas, three more Southern primaries
The victories are most likely
a high-water mark for Kerry
in the South, experts say
By Wayne Slater
The Dallas Morning News (KRT)
AUSTIN, Texas — John Kerry
added Texas and three other states
from Dixie to his delegate total
Tuesday, but the wins probably of
fer little Southern comfort for the
fall, when President Bush hopes to
dominate the region.
Bush and Kerry, the likely Democ
ratic presidential nominee, won their
respective primaries in Florida,
Louisiana, Mississippi and the Lone
Star State.
For Kerry, Tuesday's sweep — cou
pled with wins in three earlier South
ern primaries — probably will prove
to be the high-water mark for the
Massachusetts senator in the South,
analysts say.
"Kerry's showing the flag here, but
he hasn't given much indication that
his campaign is really going to put
in serious money, except perhaps
Florida," said Earl Black, a political
science professor at Rice University
in Houston.
"It looks like he and many of his
advisers might be persuaded that Ker
ry can be the Democratic Lincoln —
win the presidency without the
South," he said.
At stake Tuesday in four states
were 465 delegates to the Democrat
ic National Convention in July. The
contests were the first without seri
ous competition for Kerry after
North Carolina Sen. John Edwards
dropped out. Kerry had more than
1,500 delegates, but based on the
proportional allocation of the De
mocrats' delegate system, he wasn't
expected to reach the 2,162 needed
to secure the nomination until later
this month.
Analysts say that absent a collapse
of the Bush campaign, the president's
home state probably will remain in
the Republican column in November
— as will much of Dixie. In
2000, Bush won every Southern state.
Democrats favor Southerner
Exit polls of Democratic voters
Tuesday found they liked the idea of
Kerry putting a Southerner on the
ticket.
Asked whom he should pick as
his running mate, nearly half fa
vored Edwards. Nearly a quarter
want New York Sen. Hillary Rod
ham Clinton, while everyone else
was in single figures.
As for the prospect that Kerry can
beat Bush, 45 percent of Democrats
in Tuesday's primary put it as "very
likely," according to the exit polls.
About one-third said it was "some
what likely."
Experts point to Louisiana or
Arkansas as potential targets in the
South for Kerry.
But his best hope might be Florida,
where Al Gore lost in a nail-biter in
2000 that required a 36-day recount
and decision by the U.S. Supreme
Court. Two new polls have Kerry with
a slender lead over Bush in the Sun
shine State.
In recent days, Kerry traveled Flori
da with a message tailored to retirees
and rekindled charges that Bush and
Republican state officials "stole" the
last election.
The Bush campaign countered
with nearly $1 million in political
ads in Florida before Tuesday's pri
mary, twice as much as in any other
state. And on the stump, Bush has
fired up an aggressive message of
particular appeal in the South: that
Kerry is a political liberal who
would raise taxes and imperil na
tional security.
The Kerry camp has served notice
that it intends to compete in the
South, despite the odds. For one
thing, the strategy would force Bush
to spend time and money in the re
gion rather than be free to concen
trate elsewhere, particularly hard
fought Midwest states where swing
voters could provide the margin of
victory.
Bruce Buchanan, a political science
professor at the University of Texas at
Austin, said while Kerry's general-elec
tion prospects in the South will be
"very difficult," his military creden
tials as a Vietnam War hero should
win him votes.
"He's the guy who stopped bul
lets. He's credible in a way that
(1988 Democrat nominee) Michael
Dukakis and (former Vermont Gov.
Howard Dean) couldn't be,"
Buchanan said.
But Republicans say a strong
conservative message, particularly
one that emphasizes social conser
vative themes and labels Kerry a
liberal, will be popular in Southern
states.
Analysts look at Northern
strategy for Democrats
Political analysts say that while a
Republican presidential candidate
must capture much of the South, a
Democrat could win the White House
without any of the original 11 Con
federate states.
Assuming Kerry were to win every
state won by A1 Gore, he would need
to take back only one — possibly la
bor-friendly West Virginia or Ohio —
to reach the 270 electoral votes neces
sary for victory.
"It's a lot easier these days for a
Democrat to put together a North
GIFT
continued from page 1
$48 million, according to a College of
Education press release.
Frohnmayer noted the necessity of
legislative support in matching the $ 10
million gift, which is the largest dona
tion the college has ever received.
"It's imperative that this donation
be matched by the state of Oregon,"
he said.
Half of the construction cost is ex
pected to come from other private do
nations.
"The HEDCO Foundation has cho
sen to make the lead gift for this criti
cal venture with the hope that it will
inspire others to step forward and
help make this project a reality,"
HEDCO Board President Dody Jem
stedt, a College of Education alumna,
said in the release.
Randy Pape — chairman of Univer
sity fund-raising initiative Campaign
Oregon — said that private gifts are
necessary for raising the standards of
the college.
"I'm extremely grateful to the direc
tors of the HEDCO Foundation for
taking the lead," he said. "We must
provide facilities and equipment that
match the quality of our students and
faculty."
Communication Disorders and
Sciences Associate Professor McKay
Sohlberg explained the inefficiency of
the college's existing facilities, espe
cially in terms of working with stu
dents with speech, hearing and
language disorders. She added that,
currently, not enough space is dedi
cated to research.
"The HEDCO complex would real
ly allow us to meet our objectives,"
she said.
Along with uniting the college's
dispersed facilities, the project will
include specialized areas for devel
oping instructional assessment tools
and a teaching performance studio
with an integrated clinic for profes
sional training. The project also in
volves renovation and expansion of
existing facilities.
Junior Jenni Minas, who is studying
communication disorders and sci
ences, said that the project will pro
vide students with better opportuni
ties for research.
"Clinically it'll help us be able to
work with equipment that we don't
have the chance to work with now,"
she said.
Minas, a member of the National
Student Speech Language Hearing As
sociation, said having a centralized
complex will also help build commu
nity in the college.
"It's absolutely incredible that we're
going to be able to have the opportu
nity to use these facilities," she said.
The college serves nearly 1,500 stu
dents and has brought $147 million
in grants to the University during the
last decade, according to the release.
The college is ranked second in the
nation mong public education col
leges and first in the nation in terms
of faculty productivity.
Kaufman said the project will put
students, staff and faculty on the cut
ting edge of their profession.
"The HEDCO Foundation's transfor
mative gift affinns, from a student and
faculty point of view, that they matter
and that education matters," he said.
Contact the higher education/
student life/student affairs reporter
at chelseaduncan@dailyemerald.com.
ern strategy and win the White
House than ever before," said Black
of Rice. "You combine the North
east with the Pacific Coast states and
the urban states of the Great Lakes
region, and that gives the Democ
rats almost the electoral votes they
need to win."
Of the states in Tuesday's contests,
Louisiana's mix of minority voters
and economic problems could favor
Kerry, who visited all four states.
Still, the president won Louisiana
by 8 percentage points in 2000. And
Louisiana Secretary of State Fox McK
eithen, a Republican, questioned
whether his own primary had much
political meaning at all.
"1 can't imagine why anybody's go
ing to vote," he said. "Why should
they? 1 wouldn't except I'm the elec
tions official and it would look bad if
didn't."
(c) 2004, The Dallas Morning News.
Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune
Information Services.
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