Doubts stripped from public version of Iraq assessment
A declassified document
shows the government
took out dissenting opinions
before releasing information
By Jonathan S. Landay
Knight Ridder Newspapers (KRT)
WASHINGTON — The public ver
sion of the U.S. intelligence commu
nity's key prewar assessment of
Iraq's illicit arms programs was
stripped of dissenting opinions,
warnings of insufficient information
and doubts about deposed dictator
Saddam 1 lussein's intentions, a re
view of the document and its once
classified version shows.
As a result, the public was given a
far more definitive assessment of
Iraq's plans and capabilities than Pres
ident Bush and other U.S. decision
makers received from their intelli
gence agencies.
The stark differences between the
public version and the then top-secret
version of the October 2002 National
Intelligence Estimate raise new ques
tions about the accuracy of the public
case made for a war that's claimed the
lives of more than 500 U.S. service
members and thousands of Iraqis.
The two documents are replete
with differences. For example, the
public version declared that "most
analysts assess Iraq is reconstituting
its nuclear weapons program" and
says "if left unchecked, it probably
will have a nuclear weapon within
this decade."
But it fails to mention the dissent
ing view offered in the top-secret ver
sion by die State Department's intelli
gence arm, the Bureau of Intelligence
and Research, known as the INR.
That view said, in part, "The activi
ties we have detected do not, howev
er, add up to a compelling case that
Iraq is currently pursuing what INR
would consider to be an integrated
and comprehensive approach to ac
quire nuclear weapons. Iraq may be
doing so, but INR considers the avail
able evidence inadequate to support
such a judgment."
The alternative view further said
"INR is unwilling to ... project a time
line for the completion of activities it
does not now see happening."
Both versions were written by the
National Intelligence Council, a
board of senior analysts who report to
CIA Director George Tenet and pre
pare reports on crucial national secu
rity issues. Stuart Cohen, a 30-year
CIA veteran, was the NIC's acting
chairman at the time.
The CIA didn't respond officially to
requests to explain the differences in
the two versions. But a senior intelli
gence official, speaking on condition
of anonymity, explained them by say
ing a more candid public version
could have revealed U.S. intelligence
gathering methods.
Last week, Tenet defended the intel
ligence community's reporting on Iraq,
telling an audience at Georgetown Uni
versity that differences over Iraq's capa
bilities "were spelled out" in the Octo
ber 2002 intelligence estimate.
But while top U.S. officials may
have been told of differences among
analysts, those disputes were kept
from the American public in key ar
eas, including whether Saddam was
stockpiling biological and chemical
weapons and whether he might dis
patch poison-spraying robot aircraft
to attack the United States.
Both documents have been avail
able to the public for months. The
CIA released the public version, tided
"Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction
Programs," in October 2002, when
the Bush administration was making
its case for war. The White House de
classified and released portions of the
NIE's key findings in July 2003.
Knight Ridder compared the docu
ments in light of Tenet's speech and
continuing controversy over the intel
ligence that President Bush used to
justify the invasion last April. There
are currently seven separate official in
quiries into the issue.
What that comparison showed is
that while the top-secret version deliv
ered to Bush, his top lieutenants and
Congress was heavily qualified with
caveats about some of its most impor
tant conclusions about Iraq's illicit
weapons programs, those caveats
were omitted from the public version.
The caveats included the phases "we
judge that," "we assess that" and "we
lack specific information on many key
aspects of Iraq's WMD programs."
These phrases, according to current
and former intelligence officials, long
have been used in intelligence reports
to stress an absence of hard informa
tion and underscore that judgments
are extrapolations or estimates.
Among the most striking differ
ences between the versions were those
over Iraq's development of small, un
manned aircraft, also known as un
manned aerial vehicles.
The public version said Iraq's UAVs
"especially if used for delivery of
chemical and biological warfare
(CBW) agents — could threaten Iraq's
neighbors, US forces in the Persian
Gulf, and the United States if brought
close to, or into, the US Homeland."
The classified version showed there
was major disagreement on the issue
from the agency with the greatest ex
pertise on such aircraft, the Air Force.
The Air Force "does not agree that Iraq
is developing UAVs primarily intended
to be delivery platforms for chemical
and biological warfare (CBW) agents,"
it said. "The small size of Iraq's new
UAV strongly suggests a primary role of
reconnaissance, although CBW deliv
ery is an inherent capability."
Deleted from the public version
was a line in the classified report that
cast doubt on whether Saddam was
prepared to support terrorist attacks
on the United States, a danger that
Bush and his top aides raised repeat
edly in making their case for war.
(c) 2004, Knight Ridder/Tribune
Information Services. John Walcott
contributed to this article.
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