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Nation & World News
California's recall winner
may face short honeymoon
A change of leadership
is unlikely to cure the state’s
economic ills that prompted
voters to seek the recall
By Dick Polman
Knight Ridder Newspapers (KRT)
LOS ANGELES — "Be careful what
you wish for."
That's the message for the governor
of California.
After the results of this historic re
call election are certified, the unlucky
winner will be stuck with the same
economic headaches and political
gridlock that triggered the recall in the
first place. And the bitterness of the re
call campaign has probably made the
climate even worse.
As Robert Stern, who runs the
nonpartisan Center for Governmen
tal Studies, said here Tuesday: "It's a
heck of a lot more fun to campaign
than it is to govern. On the cam
paign trail, it's all about getting adu
lation. But governing in Sacramen
to, these days especially, is about
getting hit from all sides."
Here's the reality: a severe recession
in a state that has never recovered
from the dot-com crash; a state now
deemed by Wall Street to be less cred
itworthy than Mississippi; budgetary
red ink that stands at $8 billion and
climbing; a choice of wildly unpopu
lar solutions, ranging from big tax in
creases to draconian spending cuts;
and a state legislature that is dominat
ed by ideological partisans on the
right and left.
Amidst this polarization, even a
skilled politician would be severely
challenged by the tough choices that
lie ahead. California analysts say
there's no way that the books can be
balanced without big tax hikes and
spending cuts — but that none of the
major recall candidates prepared the
electorate for the bad news. The top
Democrats, incumbent Gray Davis
and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante (who
was essentially campaigning to re
place his boss), avoided the topic of
cutting spending. The top Republi
cans, movie star Arnold Schwarzeneg
ger and state Sen. Tom McClintock,
avoided the topic of raising taxes.
Schwarzenegger, for example, in
veighed against a recent tripling of the
state tax on cars, and vowed to erase
it. He thrilled followers last week by
declaring, "Let me tell you something
I was 25 years in show business, and
if I played a character who didn't like
something you know what I did? I
destroyed it!" — whereupon, by pre
arrangement, a wrecking ball fell on
an Oldsmobile.
He didn't say that without the car
tax hike, California's deficit would
grow by $4 billion. He also didn't say
where he'd find the money to replace
the car tax money. He said only that
he wouldn't raise taxes.
In his defense, nonpartisan analyst
Sherry Bebitch Jeffe said: "He's not
alone in saying so little. In this cam
paign, nobody has wanted to get spe
cific about anything." This was be
cause candidates didn't want to
confess the embarrassing truth:
A California governor is ham
strung on both the tax and spending
sides, by the various voter referenda
enacted over the last quarter-century,
and by a slew of federal spending
mandates. That's the dirty little secret
in California, and it was never men
tioned in the recall rhetoric; on the
contrary, Schwarzenegger often im
plied that the books could be rewrit
ten as easily as a film script.
Tim Hodson, who directs the non
partisan Center for California Studies
in Sacramento, explained the facts of
life: "The budget is roughly $80 bil
lion" — larger than the budget of all
but five nations — "and two-thirds of
it is totally untouchable, off the table,
cannot be cut. Californians don't un
derstand that."
One example: A few years ago, vot
ers passed Proposition 98, which was
sponsored by the state teachers union.
It mandated that, for every new dollar
of state revenue, 34 cents had to be
earmarked for education. Everybody
wants better schools, but there was no
mention during the recall campaign
that a governor lacks the ability to al
lot scarce resources as he sees fit.
But raising new revenue isn't so
easy, either. Proposition 13, which
slashed property taxes back in 1978,
has become sacrosanct in California
politics. Hodson said, "Californians,
like many Americans, are spoiled.
They pass lots of initiatives that put
more money into various services and
programs, yet they're not willing to
pay for it. They want lower college tu
itions, better social services, and lower
car taxes. And the candidates haven't
prepared them for hard choices."
Schwarzenegger regularly invoked
Ronald Reagan on the campaign trail *
— without mentioning that Reagan, *
in his first week as California governor
in 1967, proposed a $1 billion tax'
hike, which fell heavily on banks and
corporations. Schwarzenegger's men
tor is Pete Wilson, who as California
governor in 1991 solved a fiscal crisis
by combining tax increases and
spending cuts.
But any governor, in the current po
litical climate, would find it difficult
to raise taxes. Even though studies in
dicate that Californians rank 19th in
the nation in personal tax burden,
they perceive themselves to be over
taxed — and that perception is ram
pant among Democratic voters as well
as Republicans.
Bruce Cain, a nonpartisan Califor
nia analyst, said: "There has been a
consistent suspicion about taxes,
throughout the state, since before
Proposition 13, and that makes it
difficult for politicians to talk open
ly about all the options." Indeed,
when Schwarzenegger adviser War
ren Buffett said early in the recall
campaign that Prop. 13 was bad pol
icy, and that he'd be happy to pay
more taxes on his sumptuous Cali
fornia home, he instantly vanished
from public view and hasn't been
heard from since.
(c) 2003, the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune
Information Services.
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