Nation & World News
Hispanic voters could swing
California’s recall election
Hispanic votes may make
Bustamante California’s
first Hispanic governor
By Andrew Maykuth
Knight Ridder Newspapers (KRT)
SAN JOSE, Calif. — As a Latino,
Jose Mendoza grew accustomed to be
ing ignored by politicians. But in re
cent years, he has heard more and
more candidates tailor their messages
toward Latinos, and he has decided
that he likes being taken seriously.
"It has been happening lately, we're
the center of attention," Mendoza, own
er of the San Jose Men's Wear store in the
Californian city's predominantly Mexi
can-American east side said. 'Things are
changing. People are recognizing that
we're part of this country, too."
Last week, Lt. Gov. Cruz Busta
mante visited the run-down Tropi
cana shopping center where Men
doza's store is located. Mendoza
ordered a mariachi band to wel
come the Democrat, who could be
come California's first Hispanic
governor if he pulls off a last
minute miracle in Tuesday's guber
natorial recall election.
"We were waiting for this," Men
doza said. "We know that sooner or
later, a Latino will be elected governor
in California. We didn't think it
would happen this soon."
But first thing's first. Mendoza
said he is a loyal Democrat and he
plans to vote "no" in Tuesday's spe
cial election on the recall of Gov.
Gray Davis, the unpopular Democ
ratic governor whose ouster would
trigger a second ballot question —
who should replace the governor if
he is recalled?
Bustamante is a long shot. The
lieutenant governor lags behind Re
publican Arnold Schwarzenegger in
most polls, and his position has
been stagnant in recent weeks. But as
allegations of the actor's mistreat
ment of women have circulated in
the campaign's final days, the gap
could close substantially.
And as the gap closes, the importance
of the Latino vote could be growing.
"Latino voters are a growing per
centage of voters in several states,
but they can only swing the vote in
a few states, particularly California,"
Luis R. Fraga, an associate professor
of political science at Stanford Uni
versity, said.
Latinos, mostly Mexican-Ameri
cans, make up close to 30 percent of
California's population — as much as
half the population in the Los Ange
les area alone. They constitute be
tween 12 and 18 percent of registered
California voters and a slightly small
er percentage of the average turnout.
Fraga said that about 60 percent of
California Latinos typically vote for
Democratic candidates, and the polls
show that there will be little deviation
in the upcoming vote. He said there is
no evidence that more Latino voters
will vote for Bustamante — or vote to
oust Davis — because of a
groundswell of ethnic pride.
But Harry Pachon, head of the
Tomas Rivera Policy Institute at the
University of Southern California,
said that Latino voters may participate
in greater numbers because they per
ceive that history might be made with
a Bustamante election.
Pachon discounted a Field Poll re
leased on Friday that showed Busta
mante with a narrowing lead among
Hispanic voters. The poll said that
Bustamante received 40 percent of
the Latino support, and
Schwarzenegger was close behind
with 34 percent.
Pachon said the Multilingual Sur
vey of California Voters conducted
several weeks ago — and co-spon
sored by his institute — indicated
that Schwarzenegger only had about
15 percent of the Hispanic vote. The
survey polled about 600 Hispanic
voters, compared to about 50 in the
Field Poll.
Contrary to early reports that
young Latino voters would support
Schwarzenegger because they like his
movies, Pachon said that the actor's
primary support is from Latinos who
are Republicans.
Though Schwarzenegger has tried
to create an affinity with Latinos by
emphasizing his immigrant back
ground and expressing his fondness
for Mexico after shooting several
movies south of the border, he is
hampered by his campaign's close
association with former Governor
Pete Wilson.
Wilson, co-chair of the actor's
campaign, is despised for support
ing a divisive 1994 voter initiative
that sought to ban public services for
undocumented immigrants. The
measure passed, but was overturned
in court.
"People don't realize the anger and
hostility with Wilson is still there 10
years later,” Pachon said.
But Gary Mendoza, the co-chair
man of Schwarzenegger's campaign,
said his candidate has strong appeal
with Hispanics, who identify with
his immigrant background.
"From the polls we're seeing,
we're going to be very close to Bus
tamante in the Latino vote,” Men
doza said.
(c) 2003, The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune
Information Services.
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