Florida
continued from page 1
Gore supporters improperly
marked their ballots, leaving Bush
with more valid votes.
A consortium of eight news or
ganizations commissioned the Na
tional Opinion Research Center at
the University of Chicago to take the
deepest look yet into the Florida bal
lot box, trying to determine why the
state’s voting system broke down.
The study’s findings refute some
commonly held assumptions. Con
trary to popular belief that first-time
minority voters likely spoiled sig
nificant numbers of ballots, the
black voter turnout did not appear
to affect problems at the polls. In
fact, the percentage of blacks turn
ing out to vote was barely higher
than in the previous presidential
contest.
The study does not support
charges that the U.S. Supreme
Court’s decision to halt recounts al
tered the course of history. The
numbers suggest that Bush would
have prevailed had the counting
continued under the standards set
by the Florida Supreme Court.
Finally, each campaign’s strategy
for recounts now seems flawed. In
fact, had Gore’s top legal argument
been granted — that four specific
counties get a hand recount — it
would have benefited Bush. Had
one of Bush’s arguments been ac
cepted — favoring the counting of
ballot chads detached at two comers
— it would have benefited Gore.
If the ballots had been recounted
using a restrictive standard favored
by Bush lawyers, the study found
Gore could have won the state by
about 100 votes. But Gore’s initial
strategy to ask for recounts in four
counties limited his campaign’s abili
ty to pick up the number of ballots
that a statewide inspection may have.
Finding insight, not answers
The Florida Ballot Project re
viewed 175,010 ballots that went
uncounted in the presidential elec
tion, only a fraction of the state’s d.l
million votes cast. The study fo
cused on two kinds of ballots that
were the subject of dispute during
the recount: undervotes, where a
vote for president could not be de
tected, and overvotes, where more
than one candidate was selected.
In the end, the county-to-county
disparity between election laws, the
decisions made by local election offi
cials and the fact that a small margin
of ballots could not be located for re
view made drawing precise conclu
sions impossible for researchers.
It probably is impossible to design
a study that would determine the
winner of the presidential election.
That is particularly true given the
degree to which the Florida election
was tainted. Thousands of felons
voted, those not registered were al
lowed to vote, some voted twice and
even the dead voted in small num
bers. Other voters were erroneously
turned away from the polls.
Instead, the review was under
taken to examine the balloting
process and provide insight into
what happened. Even that goal was
hampered because election work
ers in one county couldn’t deter
mine which ballots they disquali
fied. In addition, chads in some
punch cards were knocked loose
during handling, altering their orig
inal appearance.
Depending on how the ballots
were counted, Gore might have gar
nered more votes, while in other
cases the margin stayed with Bush.
The diversity of results is limited
only by the dozens of ways the
election could have been conduct
ed, underscoring the critical role
that subjectivity by election offi
cials played in the final outcome.
More voters chose Gore
For the first time, the ballot re
view offers insight into what Flori
da voters may have been trying to
do when they walked into their
polling places on Nov. 7, 2000.
Determining the intent of the
voter was the single largest con
troversy during the presidential
recount last year. While no re
view can ever definitively resolve
the question, the study offers
strong suggestions that more vot
ers intended to vote for Gore, fol
lowing the trend of the national
popular vote.
The study revealed that Florida
voters who invalidated their ballots
by selecting Gore and another can
didate outnumber those who chose
Bush and another candidate by a 3-1
ratio, which suggests more of them
likely intended to vote for Gore.
Had different voting equipment
been in place statewide, voters would
have been given a second chance af
ter they spoiled their ballots, and the
outcome of the presidential race
could have been different.
A year after the bitter election, both
candidates seem to have little inter
est in dissecting the vote. “The Amer
ican people moved on a long time
ago,” White House spokeswoman
Nicolle Devenish said Sunday.
In a written statement, Gore
said: “We are a nation of laws, and
the presidential election of 2000 is
over.”
Confusing ballots, invalid
votersThe Tribune analysis uncov
ered some interesting points. For
example, it found that the ballot
spoilage rate in majority black
precincts was one in every 45
votes. In other precincts, it was one
in 142. The reason why so many
black votes were discarded re
mains unclear.
In addition, registered voters
complained poll workers turned
them away for failing to present
the right identification. A
botched effort to clean up the
state voter registration files after
an election-fraud scandal in 1999
instead yielded a large group of
people who had been mistakenly
cut from the voter rolls as con
victed felons when they had no
criminal records.
Even though civil rights
groups, law enforcement agencies
and newspapers devoted thou
sands of hours investigating the
possibility of organized fraud, lit
tle evidence has turned up to
support those allegations.
The confusing designs of ballots
were at the root of more discarded
ballots than anything else in Flori
da, the analysis showed.
For the first time, 10 candidates
appeared on the presidential bal
lot, prompting election officials to
devise creative solutions to find a
spot for everyone’s name on the
paper ballot. Palm Beach County
Elections Supervisor Theresa LeP
ore, concerned about the large
number of candidates on the bal
lot, did not want to squeeze the
names onto one page. So LePore, a
Democrat, designed a ballot with
larger type that spread the candi
dates across facing pages.
The Tribune analysis shows
ballots with the presidential can
didates split across two columns
or pages were far more likely to
result in invalidated votes. Coun
ties using those designs had over
vote rates four times higher than
other counties.
If they had used better-designed
ballots, Florida might have seen
thousands fewer overvotes. Gore,
whose name appeared on overvot
ed ballots three times as often as
Bush’s, presumably would have
picked up most of those votes.
Inconsistent counties
There are few consistent rules
governing election recounts. Each
of Florida’s 67 counties had de
vised their own standards. What
qualified for a vote in one county
— a hanging chad, for instance —
was disqualified in another.
These problems, long known by
election officials, had been wide
ly ignored because most races
were won by wide margins. But
even on election morning, it was
becoming clear a wide margin
would not exist in this race.
Even though Bush held an early
lead, state law required all counties
to automatically recount ballots be
cause the margin was so narrow.
Gore’s demand for a limited recount
touched off a contentious debate cen
tering on how to deduce voter intent.
The consortium study tried to fig
ure out which candidate might have
benefited most if the statewide re
count had been completed. The sta
tistical analysis shows that Bush
likely would have prevailed.
The election did inspire Florida ”v’
officials to enact what their counter
parts elsewhere in the nation failed
to do: They adopted the most
sweeping election reform measure
of any other state in the country.
Consistent election rules have
been written for all counties to fol
low. Punch card ballots have been
banned. And new balloting equip
ment will give voters a second
chance if mistakes are made on a
confusing ballot.
In Congress, though, efforts
aimed at bringing about major elec
tion reform have fallen short. Only
in recent weeks has there been a re
newed effort to fund reforms after a
year of waning interest.
Tribune staff reporter Stephen J. Hedges
contributed to this report. © 2001, Chicago
Tribune. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune
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