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Oregon daily emerald on the internet @
http://darkwing.uoregon.edu/~ode
Clinton holds substantial lead
over Dole, Perot in several polls
■ PRESIDENCY: Incumbent
extends lead in Maryland,
Arizona and Pennsylvania
The Associated Press
NEW YORK — President Clin
ton led Republican challenger
Bob Dole by at least 18 points in
three national polls released
Wednesday, little more than a
month before Election Day.
Clinton also held a substantial
lead in new surveys in Pennsylva
nia, a battleground state and in
mostly Democratic Maryland.
And Clinton apparently led in
Arizona, which hasn’t favored a
Democrat for president since
1948.
Whom voters say they would
support if the election were today:
■ Clinton and A1 Gore 55 per
cent, Dole and Jack Kemp 34 per
cent, Ross Perot and Pat Choate 5
percent in a rolling average of
nightly CNN-USA Today-Gallup
samples Sunday, Monday and
Tuesday (872 likely voters, mar
gin of sampling error plus or mi
nus 3.5 percentage points).
Gallup reported the race at 57
32-5 on Tuesday and 56-34-5 the
day before that, or virtually un
changed, although Clinton clear
ly has opened up a larger lead
over the past week.
■ Clinton-Gore 53 percent,
Dole-Kemp 35, Perot-Choate 5 in
a Sept. 25-Oct. 1 national survey
by ICR Survey Research Group for
the PoliticsNow Web site (1,417
likely voters, error margin plus or
minus 4 percentage points). Poli
ticsNow reported that Clinton’s
lead was even bigger — 22 points
— the last four days of the poll.
■ Clinton 55, Dole 34, Perot 7
in a Harris poll Sept. 26-30 among
966 likely voters (3-point error
margin).
Fifty-eight percent of respon
dents said they had firmly made
their decision; 24 percent said
they might change their minds.
Clinton’s supporters were not sig
nificantly more likely to say they
might change their minds.
In state polls;
■ Clinton led 49-33-6 in Penn
sylvania among 626 registered
voters interviewed Saturday
through Monday by the Center for
Politics and Public Affairs at
Millersville University (4-point
error margin). Clinton led 45-34
10 in a Millersville poll in August.
Pennsylvania has 23 of the 270
electoral votes needed to win the
presidency.
■ Clinton apparently led, 44
percent to 36 percent for Dole and
7 percent for Perot, in Arizona,
with eight electoral votes (Sept.
25-26, Arizona State University,
error margin plus or minus 4
points). There was a small chance
that because of sampling error,
Dole actually was tied.
■ In Maryland, with 10 elec
toral votes, Clinton led 52-38-8 in
a poll conducted Sept. 27-29 for
news organizations by Mason
Dixon Political-Media Research
(810 registered voters, 3.5-point
error margin).
Congressional campaign heats up as
both parties fight for unsure voters
■ CLINTON: President and
Gephardt work to raise
money for important races
By David Epso
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON — Despite be
ing poked by the pollsters and
bombarded by television advertis
ing for months, many voters are
just now beginning to tune into
the congressional races, giving Re
publicans and Democrats alike
cause for optimism as the cam
paign begins its final month.
With the congressional session
all but over, an estimated 60 to 70
percent of House Republican in
cumbents are starting to air their
own television commercials as
they return home to campaign
full time. They’ll stay on the air
until Election Day, touting wel
fare legislation, congressional re
form and other fruits of the 104th
Congress.
At the same time, House De
mocratic leader Richard
Gephardt is spending hours at
his party’s headquarters this
week. He’s systematically calling
potential donors from coast to
coast in search of cash for Demo
cratic candidates likely to be out
spent by Republicans in the cam
paign’s crucial final weeks.
Republicans are defending rel
atively narrow majorities this
fall. A switch of 18 seats in the
House and three in the Senate
would deliver control of Con
gress to the Democrats.
Key voters in those races are
likely to make their decisions in
the coming weeks.
“About 40 percent of Ameri
cans make up their minds the last
three weeks," says Linda DiVall,
a Republican pollster. That time
frame, she notes, generally coin
cides with the end of a congres
sional session, meaning that in
cumbents are free to return home
and “wrest control of the agen
da” from their rivals by stressing
their achievements in Washing
ton.
For years this worked to the
advantage of House Democrats;
now Republicans hope it will
turn close races their way and
complement what is expected to
be a considerable advantage in
campaign funds.
Like DiVall, Geoff Garin, a De
mocratic pollster, says his sur
veys also indicate voters are slow
in deciding how to cast ballots in
races for the House and Senate.
On a scale of one to 100, he said,
voters say they are “in the 70s
and 80s and 90s” when asked
how firmly they back their presi
dential choice. When it comes to
Congress, though, “the median
responses are in the 40s and be
low, depending on the state.”
Republicans have money, ge
ography and the powers of in
cumbency working for them,
while Democrats have offsetting
advantages, such as running on
the ticket of a popular leader.
President Clinton is cruising
well ahead of Bob Dole in the
presidential race and is making a
late-season effort to help raise
funds for congressional candi
dates.
Speaker Newt Gingrich re
mains unpopular, according to
the polls. And as their recent
concessions on the budget indi
cate, Republicans are on the de
fensive about last year’s govern
ment shutdowns, as well as their
attempts to curb spending on
Medicare and cut spending on
other social programs.