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Speaker advocates computers
for business decision making
By Sian Nelson
Of tH* I nwrild
According to a pioneer of ar
tificial intelligence, then; are
few differences between the
way computers process infor
mation and the way the human
brain works.
While the eyes and ears
operate on parallel systems,
much of the brain operates
serially — one thing at a time,
said Herbert Simon, a
psychology and computer
science professor at Carnegie
Mellon University in
Pittsburgh, on Friday at the
Chiles Business Center.
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Thus, expert computer
systems have proved their effec
tiveness as decision-making
tools for American business, he
said. There are now systems
that can perform functions at an
expert's level in areas such as
medical diagnosis and oil ex
ploration. Simon said.
The advantage of the expert
computer systems is the ability
to process information faster
than the human brain, looking
for specific recurring
characteristics and situations.
Simon said.
While the applications of
these systems have occurred in
analytic, middle-management
tasks such as inventory, where
numerical data can be stored;
the application has been sc arce
for upper-management decision
making because of the intuitive
nature of most decisions. Simon
said
Simon believes there is
relatively little difference l>el
vveen intuitive and analytical
decision making.
Ninety percent of most
management decisions are
reached without a lengthy
analysis, and am based on
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previous judgments. Simon
said.
However, “We should not
conclude, therefore, it's some
kind of magical process.”
Simon said Although the deci
sion might be based on a
manager's intuition, the basis of
the decision often rests on prior
decisions, he said.
In the business setting, intui
tion could be called the ability
of the business manager to
recognize repeating analytic
patterns, he said.
"What intuition is — if it's
good intuition, reliable intui
tion - is frozen analysis."
Simon said.
No one becomes an expert
decision maker without years of
experience, though It is the
managers' years of experience
that give then) the ability to
identify and successfully react
to recurring business situations,
Simon said.
If the similarity between
analytic and intuitive decision
making is accepted by business,
then the expert systems could
aid in upper-management deci
sion making, Simon said.
“Good judgment doesn’t
mean it cannot be improved."
Simon continued. Analytic
tools provide for reflection and
aid in finding unobserved
business patterns, he said.
At business schools, greater
emphasis should be placed on
recognition of business patterns
and taking learned knowledge
and putting it to practice,
Simon said. Much emphasis is
placed on athletic training, yet
very little is placed on intellec
tual training, he said.
Simon won the Nobel Prize
for economics in 1978 and the
1986 Medal of Science for his
work in behavioral science.
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