Economists project large economic growth
WASHINGTON (AP)— The U.S. economy,
bolstered by falling oil prices, should enjoy significant
ly better growth this year than in 1985, many
economists now believe.
The new optimism represents a sharp turnaround
from expectations liUie more than a month ago. At that
time, many analysts felt the economy would muddle
through the new year much as it did last year, with
sluggish growth and a stagnant unemployment level.
However, plunging world oil prices have altered
that view. In the last month, oil prices on the spot
market have fallen by one-third, dropping from $25 per
barrel to around $17 per barrel.
Such a precipitous decline could spell trouble for
countries such as Mexico, which depend on oil
revenues to finance their heavy debt, but it is likely to
be good news for most Americans.
The beneficial impact of falling oil prices will be
felt in two ways, economists believe.
U.S. output will rise because consumers and
businesses will have more to spend on other items.
since their oil bills will be less, and inflation in this
country will be lower.
Wharton Econometrics, a private forecasting firm,
which in December was forecasting that the economy
would grow 3 percent this year, is now predicting
growth of 3.7 percent, when measured from the fourth
quarter of 1985 to the fourth quarter of 1988.
That is sharply higher than the weak 2.5 percent
growth turned in during 1985 and is not far from the
Reagan administration’s optimistic prediction that the
economy will grow at a robust 4 percent rate this year.
Economists at the brokerage firm of Merrill Lynch,
Pierce. Fenner & Smith are forecasting the economy
will expand at a 3.5 percent rate this year, up from a
prediction of 3.1 percent growth made just a month
ago.
And the latest monthly survey of four dozen
leading economists made by filue Chip Economic In
dicators. a Sedona, Ariz.. newsletter. found that two
thirds of them were revising their forecasts upward.
Those changes are not guing unnoticed by the ad
ministration, which caught a lot of criticism last year
tor projecting 4 percent growth in itfHti when many
private analysts were calling for growth below 3
percent.
Robert Ortner, chief forecaster at the Commerce
Department, said the drop in oil prices was just one of a
number of factors bolstering the outlook for growth.
’‘Inflation has come down, the dollar has come
down and interest rates am down." he said. "These
taken with the sharp drop ir oil prices has almost en
sured that we will make 4 percent growth this year."
But not all analysts am that positive. '* . .
•They see the trade..defjclt. which.reached a record
•$14tj billion last year, remaining at a high*.revel through *.
most of 1‘tHti as recent declines in Ihe dollar help only:
gradually to ‘boost IJ.S. sales. ‘In-addition. * these
analysts contend that consumer .spending is likely to .
lag this year as Americans, already saddled by heavy'
. debt, tut hack on their purchase's.. ‘; *'.• ; •
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Better awareness of-911 ::
emefgencysystem needed
The Central lame County 9fl
.emergency telephone system-,
has lawn in opftrttfrin for l'0 .
months, but the public hee.d»'f{>°».
, la? educated, a 1 lout it.-officials.
say • ' . .
.."It’s ini portent that citizens
learn to dial 911 in an.emergen-. •
cy," says Valerie Heed! eoqr-°
dinatnr of piiMtr'ediiratinhfnr
Central IameCpuntySl 1: \ ,
Many peopIpJiave'-beerf train- . *
ed throughout their lives to dial’
0 for -the pperat.br; '• pr./’have’
memorized' th'e • seven-digit .
.phone numbers oHocal public"^
safety, agencies., she ‘says. Hiit t
dialing a. seven-digit nu'mbet
wastes. v valuable . tim«T Heed ■
“The operators are. not in
. .Kugene," she says*!"VVfum you
. dial p.. yciu-rt»ach someone* in \
Portland who has Mo fc^ik*’upa
seven-digit number to "the"|ocal -
■ 911 tenter and t ra'nsf er;tho'(:a11 ;•
• or,.relay- the.information. — h
considerable lo.ss.W time
Of particular importance -to
the success of a .Ql l-call {% the
; information provided by the
caller, Reed-says.. V '■ ;!;
"We need to -know what
we're dealing with ’The" oalttfr!.
.acts as • our • eyes:: ' .-Since we.
'cap't See what's-happening or.
who.'»involved. we have to" rely
on the-caller-to stay on the lrne
long -enough to provide us with
o r i t i-c'a I I'y^ Smp4o.r/a n i~
Information " ° • ’
Rentf saysv tis. basic. Informs- .0
. t j on' i so bt a.in' ■ d.' djr. t v pod f n t p
a computeriind fns^ntly-senit to- o
. the l puttee.;. or.° fimuonergeney°.
'.medical. 'dfapAteher.. Response - ' .*«
■ unit8. and 1 peijio nrioI aw’Ijn* = ' .
"■rhedfal«;iy dispatched;* she says. .'■ <
• .In ione .incidents .an 'oldcrly
worrigriwHo Had fallen dialed (l,
and -therb was ’umhble -to*Irflk' tri° V;
the .operator, * rdlative'of .sfheV ::«/
wonfari.was unable tq,reach her
by .phone and so '.dialed 911
Med« unity" were at .‘th°e scene
•* withrh three mi'nutds. .. ,- . . ' - i""
This.'-Reeid says, illustrates ■, '
theefficepey of.theQll systdip- ’
■'The iudeesa. of..the system
really'does'rely .on', it - utters,"
Reed says ? ..*.'1 cand .stress
enough jthfct. the. system works.
but orily.-wheiMhe public uses it
correctly..'■'
. The. til t ..system in (Central
'/Lane Count y; has been, designed
with two'features t hat can be us
ed :tp get."help tp. someone who
hasdiflled.itl IS rid cannot speak
tddh<i-call:taker
'■ One .. feature-allows the; r.afb
taker:.to‘immediately redialthe
calliir sdnirivlH-r if the (.ailrif lias
h u'n^up.' The' ot liosal hivys 11 re
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