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I
ICLIP COUPON*
Study blames lack of new firms
Professor contradicts job theory
A new study by a University
economist contradicts the
popular belief that layoffs and
plant closures cause most of the
declines in employment over
the business cycle.
The real cause, according to a
study by Randall F.berts,
associate professor of
economics, is a lack of new and
expanding businesses
In his study. Eberts compared
employment trends in Oregon
during the economic expansion
years of 1976-78 and the period
of economic decline from
1980-82.
The study showed that job
losses from firms going out of
business and from layoffs were
relatively constant during
periods of economic recovery
and decline.
"The striking result of the
study is the fact that the dif
ference in the number of jobs
created was not due to closings,
but to the lack of openings of
new firms.” Eberts says.
Eberts’ data showed that
Oregon's net employment
plunged from a 18 percent in
crease during .the 1978-78
recovery to a 2.8 • percent
decrease. during the 1980-82
recession. The primary factor,
he says, was a dramatic decline
in the in the number of new and
expanding businesses.
From 1976 to 1978, a period
of healthy economic growth na
tionwide; closings 'contributed
.9.1 percent to Oregon's employ
ment loss and layoffs accounted
■for 8..4 percent.
fluring the.deep recession of
1980-82, ‘closings were only
slightly higher than’they Were
during the ‘growth- period,, ac
counting for 10.'5 percent of the
loss in. employment: Layoffs'
also stayed about the same diit- ,
ing the recession, 'accounting
. for .9. l percent’ of the decline in
the number of jobs.. -
While the reasons that more
new businesses start up and ex
isting ones expand during
recovery than during recession
are dear — more confidence In
the economyh less risk for a
given amount of investment and
greater availability of credit —
the masons that closures and
layoffs stay relatively constant
is puzzling, Eberts said.
A possible explanation,
however, is that once a firm is
whole, wood products plants
hero continue to be shut down
because Canadian a n d
southeastern U.S. operations
have gained a cost advantage
over Northwest timber
operations.
The findings also suggest
public policy that concentrates
on preventing plant closures
may lie misdirected. Kbprts
says.’
‘The striking result of the study is the fact
that the difference in the number of jobs
created was not due to closings, but to the
lack of openings of new firms.’
— Randall Eberts
established. it is likely to close
for reasons other than cyclical
turns in the economy. Eberts
says. These' “other" reasons
may include structural changes,
such as new technologies and .
shifts in.consumer demand.
Kberts points to Oregon's
wood-products industry as ah.
obvious example of an industry
that is being deeply affected by
structural changes that trans
cend the business cycle. Despite
a turnaround in the housing in:
dustry and the economy as a
"Since firms are more likely:
to die as the result of major
structural changes in the na
tional economy than fmm .short
term regional downturns,
legislation designed to prevent
closures- may be holding onto
the past;" Eberts says,
"Measures to ease peoples'
transition; to new economic at:
tivity are probably appropriate;
but we can't have a yitnl
economy by holding onto in
dustries that are no longer
competitive."
departments update
Cell findings reported
Four University biology researchers reported
-their findings'rin-cell specialization at an interna
•.tio'na.l Biologists' conference in l .os Angelos last
week, i '• ; '.. .; • • .
‘James Weston, biology professor. Cary Ci
* ment- arfcl .Michael. Marusich; both post-doctoral
.fellows, and Kristine Vogel, graduate student,
were four of more than 2.000 scientists from 103
.countries attending the 1.0th Congress of the In
ternatiohal.Societyoflle.velop.mental Biologists
The University researchers have been study*'
inga.specific set.of embryohic cells, called neural
cfest cells’, that develop into the peripheral ncr-.
vous'system. ... ’
; Their; work may. help scientists who are
working'to f[nd..cures and better ways to treat
such’genetically determined defects as familial
dysautonomia. and Elephant Man:s disease.
Professor awarded prize
„ Eugene Luks. professof and bead of the com
puter and information science department at the
University. was'awarded lhe 1985 D.K. Fulkarson
prize by the Mathematical. Programming Society
in confuncfion .with the American Mathematical
Society. ;
The prize recognizes outstanding papers in
discrete mathematic s. Luks.orie of three winners,
was chosen for an article on graph isomorphism
that appeared in the Journal of (Computer ami
System Sciences in 1982;
Luks. 45;„ has headed the University, com
puter and information science department since
September 1983 . He was a mathematics and com
puler science professor at Buckneil University
and -at Tufts University before coming to the
University.
An honors graduate of the City College of
New York, liiks earned his doctoral degree from
the Massachusetts .institute of Technology lie is
the author of more than 35 research papers in
mathematics, statistics and theory of
computation.
Luks is also the associate editor of the journal
of Algorithms.
(kmipiled by Kirsten Bolin
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