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Philippines dilemma
Island's situation analyzed by professors
By Lois Yoshishige
Of the Emerald
About two weeks ago, Gerald Fry, assistant
director of International Studies, said Pres.
Ronald Reagan should delay his visit to the
Philippines because the government of Pres. Ferdi
nand Marcos is suspected of having a direct hand in
the slaying of opposition leader Benigno Aquino.
However, "with the tensions there now," Reagan
could renege on the trip by questioning whether he
could be assured of protection, Fry says.
Last Sunday, White House officials announced
that Reagan would postpone his trip, citing lack of ef
fective security as the reason.
More recently, the administration cited the an
ticipation of ample congressional activity during the
planned week of the trip as an additional reason.
Now that Reagan postponed his visit, Fry says the
president has taken "the easy way out." The United
States is reticent about alienating the Philippine
government — after recently investing in vital air and
naval bases in the Philippines — by overtly condemn
ing it for human rights violations, he says.
Noncommittally postponing the visit for security
reasons also gives the United States a chance to see
who's guilty. Fry says. "If Marcos or his aides are
found not to have been actively involved by an im
partial investigation, Reagan could more legitimately
visit without looking like he supports a total violation
of human rights."
At a time when the Marcos dictatorship is
weakening and the country faces economic crisis,
Marcos had welcomed Reagan's visit as a way to
legitimize his government, Fry says.
Despite Reagan's failure to do so, if Marcos is
overthrown, a new ruling party is still likely to be
"anti-American" because of "LJ.S, support of an un
popular Marcos regime."
While Fry sees Reagan's visit from the
diplomatic perspective, International
Studies Research Assistant Edward Com
stock, who has lived in the Philippines, sees the
postponement from the human rights standpoint.
The Aquino murder called attention to a
longstanding situation in the country, and Reagan is
finally — if not overtly — recognizing the human
rights violations of the Marcos regime, Comstock
says. "But it's unfortunate to have to club Ronald
Reagan to get his attention."
Marcos' "tradition of promoting inequality" in
the distribution ot wealth and power among his peo
ple has long been ignored by the Reagan administra
tion as well as by previous administrations, Com
stock says.
A reason for this blindness is a military one. After
the Vietnam war, the United States was "afraid that if
it didn't support Marcos and Imelda, it wouldn't have
a geographic military position to oversee Southeast
Asia," Comstock says.
The United States was thinking more ot their na
tional and political interests than of their moral duty
to call attention to the abuses of the regime, he says.
The Philippine people were not always so op
pressed. From 1965-68, when Comstock lived in Or
moc (a city 400 miles southeast of Manila), he found
the Filipinos had a "vibrant democracy. The people
had definite attitudes on issues and were active
members of their political parties." Comstock says
they changed their political leaders regularly — until
Marcos was elected.
In 1965, when Marcos was elected, the people
had great hope, Comstock says. "The presidents had
been laconic up till then, and no president had been
reelected after one term."
At the beginning, Marcos dealt with issues that
were important to the people, but he soon shifted his
energies into consolidating his power. The president
imposed martial law in 1968 to ensure his position as
the leader of the country, he says.
The Philippine people did not oppose the Mar
cos regime because he took control slowly, says
Comstock, who has a friend whose parents still live
in the Philippines. They had said they were pleased
with martial law because it reduced the crime rate
considerably.
"Marcos took control little by little." Comstock
says. "People would say, Oh, this is not so bad', un
til at the end, he had total control of the country. I
don't know how they feel about the Marcos regime
now."
As to the future of the Philippines, Comstock
says it's a fluid situation. He says there is
"strong talk" that Imelda Marcos, the first lady
and a powerful force in the Marcos administration,
would succeed her husband in the presidency.
If Imelda ruled, the current situation would be
the same "at all levels," Comstock says. "It would be
an attempt by Marcos and his governing cronies to
maintain power."
Other scenarios may be an overthrow of the
government by the military or by Maoist communist
groups such as the New People's Army. However,
Comstock does not see a communist revolution
brewing in the Philippines. "My own instincts are to
trust the democratic and humanistic instincts of the
Philippine people. If there is an explosion of the Mar
cos government, I hope the people will revert to an
earlier time, when the democratic processes were in
troduced and made workable."
But History Prof. Glen May says only the urban
middle class support a democratic government. The
New People's Army has gained support in the coun
tryside within the past five to seven years and is a
more serious threat to Marcos than the urban pro
test, May says.
Poverty in some areas, such as in Luzon, is
unbelievable, May says. "With ineffectual govern
ment programs and the disasterous economic situa
tion, people in the country have just given up on the
Marcos government."
The urban Filipinos were the ones who sup
ported Aquino, May says. Aquino was probably the
only candidate who would have won a national elec
tion against Marcos. May says the middle class is em
barrassed that the Marcos government blatantly
assassinated an opposition leader and that there is
now such an obvious absence of an investigation.
Although he does not think Marcos ordered the
assasination. May says it is clear that someone in
government killed Aquino. He cites rumors that Im
elda Marcos and Gen. Fabian Ver, armed forces chief
of staff, were involved with the assassination.
If Marcos is overthrown, urban businessmen
would want a capitalist government with "one of
their own kind to rule". But if it were up to the poor
in the countryside, they would institute radical social
reform, May says.
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